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Most of the top predictions for Apple's "surprise blow-out quarter" were from the finance section of a message board for Apple enthusiasts. This is like saying

Most of the top predictions for Apple's "surprise blow-out quarter" were from the finance section of a message board for Apple enthusiasts. This is like saying the New York Jets' message board is smarter than Vegas sportsbooks because they predicted an upset win over the Patriots.

yoseph 16y ago
Hi jhamburger, thanks for the comment! I'm the author of the article and want to present a different perspective: I don't think you're being completely fair to these guys. Sure, they're Apple enthusiasts but they're also digging significantly into the data to back up their analysis. For example, check out one users' analysis on Apple's Cost and Cost Ratios to Revenue: http://www.postsateventide.com/2010/11/apple-quarterly-comparison-of-costs-and.html http://www.postsateventide.com/2010/11/apple-quarterly-compa... (Found here: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79667/ http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79667/).
- jhamburger 16y ago
  OK so they're not guessing, but they're still biased. I'd like to see them correctly call a bad quarter before I'm convinced.
  - czhiddy 16y ago
    When was the last time Apple had a bad quarter? :-)
    - hugh3 16y ago
      1997? http://www.windowsitpro.com/article/news2/apple-posts-708-million-quarterly-loss.aspx http://www.windowsitpro.com/article/news2/apple-posts-708-mi... "The red ink just won't stop flowing from Apple Computer these days, as the company posted a tidy US$708 million loss this quarter. This is only one year after posting a $740 million loss in the same quarter of 1996. Apple said the loss contains a one-time $155 million charge for restructuring and a $375 million write-off to cover the acquisition of NeXT... "We will return to profitability," said [CEO] Amelio, apparently to himself. Everyone else had stopped listening, except of course "MacWeek," which reported this story as "Company reports $1.6 billion in revenue." I guess that's one way to look at it" (Fun fact: if you'd bought $10,000 worth of Apple shares in 1Q of 1997 they'd be worth eight hundred thousand dollars nowadays.)
- nowarninglabel 16y ago
  Though I liked your comments in the article, I agree with jhamburger, this is a lot different than taking a random sampling of the popular finance bloggers and comparing their top picks vs. the top picks of analysts. You could still allow the bloggers to choose the companies they know best, but you would get more realistic picture of their investing prowess than the results here. That said, I very much agree with the 4 points you stated in the article.

yoseph 16y ago

Hi jhamburger, thanks for the comment! I'm the author of the article and want to present a different perspective: I don't think you're being completely fair to these guys. Sure, they're Apple enthusiasts but they're also digging significantly into the data to back up their analysis. For example, check out one users' analysis on Apple's Cost and Cost Ratios to Revenue: http://www.postsateventide.com/2010/11/apple-quarterly-comparison-of-costs-and.html http://www.postsateventide.com/2010/11/apple-quarterly-compa... (Found here: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79667/ http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79667/).

jhamburger 16y ago
OK so they're not guessing, but they're still biased. I'd like to see them correctly call a bad quarter before I'm convinced.
- czhiddy 16y ago
  When was the last time Apple had a bad quarter? :-)
  - hugh3 16y ago
    1997? http://www.windowsitpro.com/article/news2/apple-posts-708-million-quarterly-loss.aspx http://www.windowsitpro.com/article/news2/apple-posts-708-mi... "The red ink just won't stop flowing from Apple Computer these days, as the company posted a tidy US$708 million loss this quarter. This is only one year after posting a $740 million loss in the same quarter of 1996. Apple said the loss contains a one-time $155 million charge for restructuring and a $375 million write-off to cover the acquisition of NeXT... "We will return to profitability," said [CEO] Amelio, apparently to himself. Everyone else had stopped listening, except of course "MacWeek," which reported this story as "Company reports $1.6 billion in revenue." I guess that's one way to look at it" (Fun fact: if you'd bought $10,000 worth of Apple shares in 1Q of 1997 they'd be worth eight hundred thousand dollars nowadays.)
nowarninglabel 16y ago
Though I liked your comments in the article, I agree with jhamburger, this is a lot different than taking a random sampling of the popular finance bloggers and comparing their top picks vs. the top picks of analysts. You could still allow the bloggers to choose the companies they know best, but you would get more realistic picture of their investing prowess than the results here. That said, I very much agree with the 4 points you stated in the article.