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While writing about this [1] recently, I made a chart which shows the adoption rate of each version of Android, X months after release, according to Google's ow

While writing about this [1] recently, I made a chart which shows the adoption rate of each version of Android, X months after release, according to Google's own numbers. It is indeed dire. Each new version of Android is typically reaching less and less devices, X months after release. For example Android M, released in 2015, was on 24% of devices accessing the play store 12 months after release. Android O, released in 2017, was on 14.6% of devices 12 months after release. Here's the chart: https://i.imgur.com/yRDIEAs.png https://i.imgur.com/yRDIEAs.png Google stopped releasing these numbers on their developer dashboard, and I think it's possible that the reason is because they're terrible. [1] https://unlikekinds.com/article/android-updates-are-getting-slower-and-slower-despite-googles-best-efforts https://unlikekinds.com/article/android-updates-are-getting-...

PopePompus 7y ago
Part of the reason for slow updates may be that new versions of Android really aren't bringing a lot of user-visible new features anymore. Android 10 brought dark mode (which is still only supported by a small subset of Android apps), but not much more that the end user can see. Are the users still "languishing" in Android Pie really clamoring for Android 10?
- whalabi 7y ago
  I think the rate of change has slowed somewhat in terms of big visible changes. Although 10 dramatically improved gesture navigation, afaik.
- muro 7y ago
  There are privacy improvements.
  - McDev 7y ago
    The ability to allow apps to use your location only while you're using the app is particularly useful. iOS has had this for a while now.
- cwyers 7y ago
  Users don't really choose when updates are available for their phones, so I'm not sure that this explains a lot.
  - srcmap 7y ago
    Most users probably want security update. I believe it is hardware vendors that don't want to support update. It is a lot of works (costs) for them with little and no return. It might even be negative returns since a phone with updated OS might delay that user purchase a new phone every 1-2 years.
- franga2000 7y ago
  Oh but there are user-visible changes - just not good ones. Good and useful features are destroyed every update: Miracast, system backups, a whole bunch of widely-used APIs are crippled (SMS, WiFi scanning, drawing on top, clipboard...) to give Google's apps an advantage... That, along with some really bad UI changes, makes people dislike updates and/or actively avoid them.
- blue_devil 7y ago
  The lagging updates has nothing to do with users, it's a corollary of Google having strategically chosen to build a fragmented ecosystem, whereas Apple built their walled off garden. Apple can incentivise updates much better because they control the whole ecosystem. To achieve this, Google would need to somehow _force_ OEMs to update Android, but the fragmentation makes this a herculean task.
  - jmfayard 7y ago
    It's not Apple vs Google. Google has a second operating system, Chrome OS, and that team does a very nice job at keeping all the Chromebook up-to-date. It's one of those old early Android mistakes that were never really fixed. I think the root issue is that they were never even fully acknowledged. I wrote about this here: https://dev.to/jmfayard/android-s-billion-dollar-mistake-327b https://dev.to/jmfayard/android-s-billion-dollar-mistake-327...
  - murgindrag 7y ago
    As opposed to computers running Windows? or Ubuntu? More fragmented than Android. Continuous updates even for hardware from the year 2000 (a few paid along the way).
    - AdrianB1 7y ago
      Actually Windows and Ubuntu are not a good example because the end user can easily perform updates without the computer manufacturer having anything to say. I would upgrade my mom's Android 8 phone, but I cannot. It is not the fragmentation, it's who's in control of the updates.
      - cookiecaper 7y ago
        Heh, after years of prodding, my mom finally gave up her Android 4.4 phone last month. Instagram stopped allowing her to sign in from it. It was replaced by a Pixel 3, which no longer allows her to easily set up her third-party ringtone app among a plethora of other annoyances and disappointments. "This is why I never want to get new phones or computers" was muttered probably about 15 times in the two hours I was helping her salvage content from the older device.
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  I bought, very unaware at the time of the tots redic state of Android updates, a brand new, 9 months from release, Samsung Androd tablet. The release of Android (5.x) was obsolute at initial product release. There has been no update. There is no update path. The device is locked down to the point that I have been unable to root or re-ROM it. I'd been under the impression at purchase time that 1) OEM updates would be provided, 2) rooting was possible, and 3) re-ROMing was an option. All three beliefs proved false. Samsung are directly to blame. But Google can fix this. Google haven't. Google aren't. Google can pleasure itself.
Andrex 7y ago
Percentage of overall devices is going to slow down just as a rule the more devices Android sells though... as an extremely simplified example: it's easier to hits 100% of devices when there are only ten of them to update. Showing the total number of Play Store devices used to calculate each percentage would be useful to compensate for this, but Google is probably reticent to divulge such information.
- whalabi 7y ago
  This information is available in the play console (where people can submit apps to the play store), and there's tens of thousands of targetable devices The vast majority of Android devices in use are Samsung devices though.. judging from my own apps' stats and other stats I've seen around over the years
pjmlp 7y ago
Dashboard doesn't even show Vulkan support across devices, most likely because beyond Samsung and Google almost no one else cares to support it, hence why now starting with Android 10 it is a required API for all OEMs. Thing is, many of them are still happily producing Android 5 and 6 devices.
daurnimator 7y ago
My theory is that people are keeping devices longer; which leads to being stuck on an old release.
- blue_devil 7y ago
  That is the point though - fragmentation on Android. Keeping an old device should not mean you get "stuck" with an old OS - I have the latest OS on my 2013 Macbook.
  - whalabi 7y ago
    A quick aside - don't buy an android TV unless you want to run a tv with very quickly outdated software. I think I got 2 years of updates on my TV, and it's not like I'm going to want to throw it out and get a new one, so I have to put up with outdated software.
- AdrianB1 7y ago
  Not by their choice and this is the main problem. I have about 10 Android phones and tablets in the house, a single Apple device and I can keep the Apple device current, but I cannot choose to do the same for Android, the manufacturers do.
  - opan 7y ago
    Not even with LineageOS? I've got a OnePlus 2 and OnePlus 3 I'm still keeping updated thanks to custom ROM support. Similarly my router can still get new software thanks to OpenWRT. I would not want to rely on a company to keep my stuff up to date.
    - AdrianB1 7y ago
      I used CyanogenMod (LinesgeOS) in the past on older phones, but it is not for the average use to download, install and configure all the bits and pieces needed for this. The support for the phones is also very limited, half of the phones in my house are not supported (and they are manufactured by Asus, not by a very small manufacturer).

PopePompus 7y ago

Part of the reason for slow updates may be that new versions of Android really aren't bringing a lot of user-visible new features anymore. Android 10 brought dark mode (which is still only supported by a small subset of Android apps), but not much more that the end user can see. Are the users still "languishing" in Android Pie really clamoring for Android 10?

whalabi 7y ago
I think the rate of change has slowed somewhat in terms of big visible changes. Although 10 dramatically improved gesture navigation, afaik.
muro 7y ago
There are privacy improvements.
- McDev 7y ago
  The ability to allow apps to use your location only while you're using the app is particularly useful. iOS has had this for a while now.
cwyers 7y ago
Users don't really choose when updates are available for their phones, so I'm not sure that this explains a lot.
- srcmap 7y ago
  Most users probably want security update. I believe it is hardware vendors that don't want to support update. It is a lot of works (costs) for them with little and no return. It might even be negative returns since a phone with updated OS might delay that user purchase a new phone every 1-2 years.
franga2000 7y ago
Oh but there are user-visible changes - just not good ones. Good and useful features are destroyed every update: Miracast, system backups, a whole bunch of widely-used APIs are crippled (SMS, WiFi scanning, drawing on top, clipboard...) to give Google's apps an advantage... That, along with some really bad UI changes, makes people dislike updates and/or actively avoid them.
blue_devil 7y ago
The lagging updates has nothing to do with users, it's a corollary of Google having strategically chosen to build a fragmented ecosystem, whereas Apple built their walled off garden. Apple can incentivise updates much better because they control the whole ecosystem. To achieve this, Google would need to somehow _force_ OEMs to update Android, but the fragmentation makes this a herculean task.
- jmfayard 7y ago
  It's not Apple vs Google. Google has a second operating system, Chrome OS, and that team does a very nice job at keeping all the Chromebook up-to-date. It's one of those old early Android mistakes that were never really fixed. I think the root issue is that they were never even fully acknowledged. I wrote about this here: https://dev.to/jmfayard/android-s-billion-dollar-mistake-327b https://dev.to/jmfayard/android-s-billion-dollar-mistake-327...
- murgindrag 7y ago
  As opposed to computers running Windows? or Ubuntu? More fragmented than Android. Continuous updates even for hardware from the year 2000 (a few paid along the way).
  - AdrianB1 7y ago
    Actually Windows and Ubuntu are not a good example because the end user can easily perform updates without the computer manufacturer having anything to say. I would upgrade my mom's Android 8 phone, but I cannot. It is not the fragmentation, it's who's in control of the updates.
    - cookiecaper 7y ago
      Heh, after years of prodding, my mom finally gave up her Android 4.4 phone last month. Instagram stopped allowing her to sign in from it. It was replaced by a Pixel 3, which no longer allows her to easily set up her third-party ringtone app among a plethora of other annoyances and disappointments. "This is why I never want to get new phones or computers" was muttered probably about 15 times in the two hours I was helping her salvage content from the older device.
dredmorbius 7y ago
I bought, very unaware at the time of the tots redic state of Android updates, a brand new, 9 months from release, Samsung Androd tablet. The release of Android (5.x) was obsolute at initial product release. There has been no update. There is no update path. The device is locked down to the point that I have been unable to root or re-ROM it. I'd been under the impression at purchase time that 1) OEM updates would be provided, 2) rooting was possible, and 3) re-ROMing was an option. All three beliefs proved false. Samsung are directly to blame. But Google can fix this. Google haven't. Google aren't. Google can pleasure itself.

Andrex 7y ago

Percentage of overall devices is going to slow down just as a rule the more devices Android sells though... as an extremely simplified example: it's easier to hits 100% of devices when there are only ten of them to update. Showing the total number of Play Store devices used to calculate each percentage would be useful to compensate for this, but Google is probably reticent to divulge such information.

whalabi 7y ago
This information is available in the play console (where people can submit apps to the play store), and there's tens of thousands of targetable devices The vast majority of Android devices in use are Samsung devices though.. judging from my own apps' stats and other stats I've seen around over the years

pjmlp 7y ago

Dashboard doesn't even show Vulkan support across devices, most likely because beyond Samsung and Google almost no one else cares to support it, hence why now starting with Android 10 it is a required API for all OEMs. Thing is, many of them are still happily producing Android 5 and 6 devices.

daurnimator 7y ago

My theory is that people are keeping devices longer; which leads to being stuck on an old release.

blue_devil 7y ago
That is the point though - fragmentation on Android. Keeping an old device should not mean you get "stuck" with an old OS - I have the latest OS on my 2013 Macbook.
- whalabi 7y ago
  A quick aside - don't buy an android TV unless you want to run a tv with very quickly outdated software. I think I got 2 years of updates on my TV, and it's not like I'm going to want to throw it out and get a new one, so I have to put up with outdated software.
AdrianB1 7y ago
Not by their choice and this is the main problem. I have about 10 Android phones and tablets in the house, a single Apple device and I can keep the Apple device current, but I cannot choose to do the same for Android, the manufacturers do.
- opan 7y ago
  Not even with LineageOS? I've got a OnePlus 2 and OnePlus 3 I'm still keeping updated thanks to custom ROM support. Similarly my router can still get new software thanks to OpenWRT. I would not want to rely on a company to keep my stuff up to date.
  - AdrianB1 7y ago
    I used CyanogenMod (LinesgeOS) in the past on older phones, but it is not for the average use to download, install and configure all the bits and pieces needed for this. The support for the phones is also very limited, half of the phones in my house are not supported (and they are manufactured by Asus, not by a very small manufacturer).