2 ms·
99% probability is nothing - that's just 3 sigma. In real sciences you usually don't say something is highly likely until 5 sigma, which is 99.99994%.
by akvadrako 7y ago
99% probability is nothing - that's just 3 sigma. In real sciences you usually don't say something is highly likely until 5 sigma, which is 99.99994%.
- comicjk 7y ago"99% probability is nothing" is innumeracy. A demand for five sigma before taking action - treating probabilities between 0 and 99.9999% as equivalent - is defensible in a high-energy physics experiment, where adding another sigma just means collecting data for another month. But in most of life, demanding that level of certainty is a guarantee of mistakes: getting the extra certainty takes time, and inaction during that time is itself a decision that can be wrong. I don't know if you consider chemistry a real science, but my employer makes decisions based on probabilities less certain than 99% every day! We accept that sometimes we will be wrong, and plan so we can tolerate that too. This is how you use science in the real world.