3 ms·

ps: Ukraine gave away their nukes for a promise of security with the budapest memorandum ca 1995. I suspect this has a high effect on any future promises by the

by simpss 7y ago

ps: Ukraine gave away their nukes for a promise of security with the budapest memorandum ca 1995. I suspect this has a high effect on any future promises by the nuclear backed countries.

sgt101 7y ago
Yet another genius move by the EU.
- ben_w 7y ago
  The Budapest Memorandum has nothing to do with the EU. It was signed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Russia, the USA, and the UK. And signed in a country that only joined the EU a decade later.
  - sgt101 7y ago
    In 2013 (and before) the EU managed to convince the Ukraine that if it signed an association agreement it would be supported both economically and politically and no nasty Russians would do anything nasty. As soon as the reality of what the EU was willing to put on the table was crystallised in black and white it became obvious that there was no way on earth that this would fly. This precipitated the unwinding of the Ukrainian polity and the unholy mess that they have to deal with now. The EU has been singularly absent from attempting to resolve or manage this situation because they have no way to deal with the Russians, and the Russians know it. The Budapest Memorandum does, in fact, have a lot to do with the EU because it has a border with The Ukraine. At some point in the near future it is going to become really, really, really obvious that the EU in general and Germany in particular is underspending on defence by ~4% of GDP per annum, and has been for 20 years. The bill for this, when the Russians present it (possibly by driving tanks into places where Russian tanks should not be driven) will be much larger than 40% of GDP. Note also, this is not the only massively problematic military border that the EU has; the Mediterranean, Balkans and Aegean are all available for geopolitical lunacy on demand in the near future.
    - ben_w 7y ago
      I’m happy to defer to your knowledge of military topics, but that still doesn’t sound like a reason to blame specially the EU — an organisation which doesn’t have its own military, and whose members mutual defence arrangement explicitly comes second to any NATO obligations that member states might have. Blame the UK or the USA for not holding Russia to the agreement, if you like, but blaming the EU makes a bit less sense than blaming the OSCE.
      - sgt101 7y ago
        The USA wasn't holding talks to draw the Ukraine closer into its sphere of influence. The UK was involved, and I agree - as a part of the EU it deserves a dollop of blame for the resulting mess. And what a mess.

by simpss 7y ago

ps: Ukraine gave away their nukes for a promise of security with the budapest memorandum ca 1995. I suspect this has a high effect on any future promises by the nuclear backed countries.

sgt101 7y ago

Yet another genius move by the EU.

ben_w 7y ago
The Budapest Memorandum has nothing to do with the EU. It was signed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Russia, the USA, and the UK. And signed in a country that only joined the EU a decade later.
- sgt101 7y ago
  In 2013 (and before) the EU managed to convince the Ukraine that if it signed an association agreement it would be supported both economically and politically and no nasty Russians would do anything nasty. As soon as the reality of what the EU was willing to put on the table was crystallised in black and white it became obvious that there was no way on earth that this would fly. This precipitated the unwinding of the Ukrainian polity and the unholy mess that they have to deal with now. The EU has been singularly absent from attempting to resolve or manage this situation because they have no way to deal with the Russians, and the Russians know it. The Budapest Memorandum does, in fact, have a lot to do with the EU because it has a border with The Ukraine. At some point in the near future it is going to become really, really, really obvious that the EU in general and Germany in particular is underspending on defence by ~4% of GDP per annum, and has been for 20 years. The bill for this, when the Russians present it (possibly by driving tanks into places where Russian tanks should not be driven) will be much larger than 40% of GDP. Note also, this is not the only massively problematic military border that the EU has; the Mediterranean, Balkans and Aegean are all available for geopolitical lunacy on demand in the near future.
  - ben_w 7y ago
    I’m happy to defer to your knowledge of military topics, but that still doesn’t sound like a reason to blame specially the EU — an organisation which doesn’t have its own military, and whose members mutual defence arrangement explicitly comes second to any NATO obligations that member states might have. Blame the UK or the USA for not holding Russia to the agreement, if you like, but blaming the EU makes a bit less sense than blaming the OSCE.
    - sgt101 7y ago
      The USA wasn't holding talks to draw the Ukraine closer into its sphere of influence. The UK was involved, and I agree - as a part of the EU it deserves a dollop of blame for the resulting mess. And what a mess.