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I think some interesting takeaways from reading this article in 2019 are: - One "black swan" doesn't happen twice. Though Taleb would disagree, i.e. he'd say t

by mojuba 7y ago

I think some interesting takeaways from reading this article in 2019 are: - One "black swan" doesn't happen twice. Though Taleb would disagree, i.e. he'd say that neither the dot-com bubble nor the 2008 crash were black swan events, but for most investors, entrepreneurs and traders they were. In any case, we are somehow immune to big random negative-impact events repeating themselves. We are not that stupid. The Bubble 2.0 didn't happen though something else, unrelated, did. - The predictions of the time assumed that Internet was there forever. Very soon a dramatic landscape shift happened with the release of the iPhone. We are not living in a purely Internet era anymore, and all the surviving Internet megacorps have managed to embrace the shift (Google, even Facebook with its Messenger), and those who haven't are dead (Yahoo, and probably more to come). - What we think will happen next is probably wrong. We can't even say whether there will be another technological shift or both the Internet and the mobile are here virtually forever. Something that has already failed can make a come back. In 2007 Taleb mocked e-scooters, for example, now look at their impressive comeback. He also thought in 2007 that Google will be replaced with something else just as quickly and abruptly as Google replaced Alta Vista. Bottom line: don't try to make arbitrary unsubstantiated assumptions even if your name is Nassim Nicholas Taleb. We suck at predictions. - I think one key difference between entrepreneurs and investors is that the former don't try to make predictions much, while the latter depend on predictions. One corollary being that entrepreneurs should probably ignore the buzz or what the most funded tech is at any given point in time (something-dot-com, IoT, blockchain, AR, AI, ...) and just do their thing: bring their dreams into life regardless of what everyone else is saying.

sjg007 7y ago
You should check out Michael Lewis's podcast "Against the Rules".. it discusses basically what happens when the referee'd in life are rigged. In 2008 it was the bond rating agencies whose fictitious A+ approvals on subprime loans cause the collapse. In 2000 it was an influx of capital due to low interest rates and lowered capital gains (The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997) that propped up companies with no revenues who pushed for IPOs. IPOs themselves were relatively underpriced (even though they were inherently worthless based on the fundamentals long term) which cause the pop phenomenon that I believe encouraged IPO investment to ride the wave. So in these cases where was the SEC? And what was the fiduciary duty of the underwriters? In all honestly today the tech IPO market kind of sucks because of all of this. It takes years and unicorn status to IPO which is a reversal and I think another problem.
- wbl 7y ago
  The SEC is oriented to disclosure not substance. If you want to be stupid and loose it all, the SEC is fine with that provided you knew the risks.
- doctorpangloss 7y ago
  Eh, I bet you know a lot more people who don’t sell due to capital gains taxes than people who buy because of them. The early 2000s collapse had a lot going on.
nothis 7y ago
>both the Internet and the mobile So... the internet on a big screen and the internet on a small screen?
- williamdclt 7y ago
  I think this is rather "the internet via a browser and the internet via individual applications"
- mojuba 7y ago
  Not quite. One is Internet on your desk and the other is Internet in your pocket. It makes certain things possible that would previously make little sense. You would not tweet a video from a protest rally; you would not message or listen to podcasts or read something or do trading while commuting; online banking wouldn't be that safe and secure; you wouldn't have an interactive map in your palm while in a new city; and a thousand more things that today exist only on mobile - thanks to the compact touch interfaces and the Internet of course.
  - user5994461 7y ago
    You could SMS and MMS from a protest, you could do banking with a phone call. It's all progressive improvements. Networks converged to internet and TCP/IP while devices converged to computers everywhere with colored screens of various sizes.
    - mojuba 7y ago
      > you could do banking with a phone call Try to do what e.g. Revolut, N26 and similar apps are offering over the phone. It would take ages. This is a really bad comparison. Sometimes progressive improvements become a breakthrough, though I wouldn't call the invention of touch UIs a progressive improvement. It was a massive one. We take it for granted today but before the release of the first iPhone very very few people would have imagined it, let alone that it could change the world (which it did).
      - 7y ago
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
nailer 7y ago
> The predictions of the time assumed that Internet was there forever. Very soon a dramatic landscape shift happened with the release of the iPhone. We are not living in a purely Internet era anymore, and all the surviving Internet megacorps have managed to embrace the shift (Google, even Facebook with its Messenger), and those who haven't are dead (Yahoo, and probably more to come). Kindly, it seems you're a little confused about what the internet is.
- mojuba 7y ago
  I don't think I am confused, no. The Internet in your pocket with a touch UI is a different thing. I tried to argue about this in a neighbouring branch.
  - jonathanyc 7y ago
    You’re mistaking the web for the internet. It doesn’t detract from your points but your insistence risks confusing others. It’s still pure Internet. It’s just no longer pure “web.” The internet‘s UI is your OS’s networking library. Although it has changed with the advent of mobile (e.g. can we transparently handle switching between WiFi / cellular?) it has no GUI, touch or otherwise. What you are trying to say is that companies have had to adapt to the possibility that web applications in a web browser will lose out to native applications using web or Internet protocols behind the scenes.
    - mojuba 7y ago
      I think the change (web vs. mobile) is more about the following: mobile devices are more personal and well, more mobile. As such, they provide stronger authentication mechanisms. They are typically managed environments, and finally, there are more people with mobile devices than with personal computers in the world. All of the above are truly game changers when you look at certain application domains such as mobile banking. Here's one out of thousands of scenarios that are possible only on mobile: I am in London, I need some cash money but my bank accounts are in euros. The sequence is this: Face ID, then with a few taps I convert the necessary amount and withdraw pounds from the nearest ATM. With Revolut I saved a lot of time and money on conversion alone (though to be fair many other mobile banks do the same today). This is not just "pure Internet" it's a different medium that brings a lot of new possibilities.
newshorts 7y ago
It’s essential to point out that not all investors attempt to predict the future. There are many strategies and approaches that actually avoid such predictions.
rolltiide 7y ago
Lehman Brothers imploding, the exposure to Lehman Brothers and untrustworthiness of the ratings agencies was a black swan event. This caused everyone retracting their credit lines as they couldnt trust the whole system any longer, revealing how highly leveraged and dependent on credit lines that everyone was, raising margin requirements - causing liquidations - and completely closing some margin markets. If that was in anybody’s model I would like to see that model.
ttul 7y ago
Entrepreneurism is the art of making it happen regardless of circumstances. It’s more about constant adaptation and change than about predicting the right move in advance.

by mojuba 7y ago

sjg007 7y ago

You should check out Michael Lewis's podcast "Against the Rules".. it discusses basically what happens when the referee'd in life are rigged. In 2008 it was the bond rating agencies whose fictitious A+ approvals on subprime loans cause the collapse. In 2000 it was an influx of capital due to low interest rates and lowered capital gains (The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997) that propped up companies with no revenues who pushed for IPOs. IPOs themselves were relatively underpriced (even though they were inherently worthless based on the fundamentals long term) which cause the pop phenomenon that I believe encouraged IPO investment to ride the wave. So in these cases where was the SEC? And what was the fiduciary duty of the underwriters? In all honestly today the tech IPO market kind of sucks because of all of this. It takes years and unicorn status to IPO which is a reversal and I think another problem.

wbl 7y ago
The SEC is oriented to disclosure not substance. If you want to be stupid and loose it all, the SEC is fine with that provided you knew the risks.
doctorpangloss 7y ago
Eh, I bet you know a lot more people who don’t sell due to capital gains taxes than people who buy because of them. The early 2000s collapse had a lot going on.

nothis 7y ago

>both the Internet and the mobile So... the internet on a big screen and the internet on a small screen?

williamdclt 7y ago
I think this is rather "the internet via a browser and the internet via individual applications"
mojuba 7y ago
Not quite. One is Internet on your desk and the other is Internet in your pocket. It makes certain things possible that would previously make little sense. You would not tweet a video from a protest rally; you would not message or listen to podcasts or read something or do trading while commuting; online banking wouldn't be that safe and secure; you wouldn't have an interactive map in your palm while in a new city; and a thousand more things that today exist only on mobile - thanks to the compact touch interfaces and the Internet of course.
- user5994461 7y ago
  You could SMS and MMS from a protest, you could do banking with a phone call. It's all progressive improvements. Networks converged to internet and TCP/IP while devices converged to computers everywhere with colored screens of various sizes.
  - mojuba 7y ago
    > you could do banking with a phone call Try to do what e.g. Revolut, N26 and similar apps are offering over the phone. It would take ages. This is a really bad comparison. Sometimes progressive improvements become a breakthrough, though I wouldn't call the invention of touch UIs a progressive improvement. It was a massive one. We take it for granted today but before the release of the first iPhone very very few people would have imagined it, let alone that it could change the world (which it did).
    - 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

nailer 7y ago

> The predictions of the time assumed that Internet was there forever. Very soon a dramatic landscape shift happened with the release of the iPhone. We are not living in a purely Internet era anymore, and all the surviving Internet megacorps have managed to embrace the shift (Google, even Facebook with its Messenger), and those who haven't are dead (Yahoo, and probably more to come). Kindly, it seems you're a little confused about what the internet is.

mojuba 7y ago
I don't think I am confused, no. The Internet in your pocket with a touch UI is a different thing. I tried to argue about this in a neighbouring branch.
- jonathanyc 7y ago
  You’re mistaking the web for the internet. It doesn’t detract from your points but your insistence risks confusing others. It’s still pure Internet. It’s just no longer pure “web.” The internet‘s UI is your OS’s networking library. Although it has changed with the advent of mobile (e.g. can we transparently handle switching between WiFi / cellular?) it has no GUI, touch or otherwise. What you are trying to say is that companies have had to adapt to the possibility that web applications in a web browser will lose out to native applications using web or Internet protocols behind the scenes.
  - mojuba 7y ago
    I think the change (web vs. mobile) is more about the following: mobile devices are more personal and well, more mobile. As such, they provide stronger authentication mechanisms. They are typically managed environments, and finally, there are more people with mobile devices than with personal computers in the world. All of the above are truly game changers when you look at certain application domains such as mobile banking. Here's one out of thousands of scenarios that are possible only on mobile: I am in London, I need some cash money but my bank accounts are in euros. The sequence is this: Face ID, then with a few taps I convert the necessary amount and withdraw pounds from the nearest ATM. With Revolut I saved a lot of time and money on conversion alone (though to be fair many other mobile banks do the same today). This is not just "pure Internet" it's a different medium that brings a lot of new possibilities.

newshorts 7y ago

It’s essential to point out that not all investors attempt to predict the future. There are many strategies and approaches that actually avoid such predictions.

rolltiide 7y ago

Lehman Brothers imploding, the exposure to Lehman Brothers and untrustworthiness of the ratings agencies was a black swan event. This caused everyone retracting their credit lines as they couldnt trust the whole system any longer, revealing how highly leveraged and dependent on credit lines that everyone was, raising margin requirements - causing liquidations - and completely closing some margin markets. If that was in anybody’s model I would like to see that model.

ttul 7y ago

Entrepreneurism is the art of making it happen regardless of circumstances. It’s more about constant adaptation and change than about predicting the right move in advance.