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I think the Kelly Criterion can tell you what proportion of your funds to be betting in situations like this.
by owenshen24 7y ago
I think the Kelly Criterion can tell you what proportion of your funds to be betting in situations like this.
- rsecora 7y agoTake care, because the Kelly criterion for this game gives a negative value. which means you should not bet any of your wealth at this moment. :)
- kaues 7y agoI agree, and I think on this case it would recommend betting a negative value and taking the other side of the bet, since the expected value is negative. Quoting from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion: "If the edge is negative (b<q/p) the formula gives a negative result, indicating that the gambler should take the other side of the bet."