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I guess that, at least compared to society in general, I'm a cognitive nihilist? I highly doubt that it is in our power to predict with useful accuracy somethin
by burntoutfire 7y ago
I guess that, at least compared to society in general, I'm a cognitive nihilist? I highly doubt that it is in our power to predict with useful accuracy something as complex as climate. If I'm not mistaken, we're still having problems modelling stuff a billion times less complex than climate (such as an air flow in turbines etc.)...
- moultano 7y agoGenerally, more uncertainty around climate change means you should be more supportive of climate change mitigation rather than less, because it means we can't rule out things that look like the P-T extinction.
- burntoutfire 7y agoThere's infinite number of events which we can't rule out. My approach is basically the opposite - if the evidence for something is super-sketchy, maybe we shouldn't spend trillions (or even quadrillions?) on preparing for it.
- moultano 7y agoThe evidence is completely airtight. The problem is with the precision of predictions, not the evidence for the mechanism and rough magnitude.