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Clarke’s First Law: “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something

Clarke’s First Law: “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27s_three_laws https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27s_three_laws

kingkawn 7y ago
Doesnt this negate itself?
- mLuby 7y ago
  Clarke said it's unlikely for a distinguished but elderly scientist to accurately predict what's unlikely. Clarke was a distinguished but elderly scientist. Therefore it's unlikely that Clarke accurately predicted what's unlikely?
  - tempestn 7y ago
    Clarke stated that distinguished, elderly scientists claiming something is impossible are "very probably" wrong, not that it's impossible for them to be right. (Also he was more of a science fiction writer than a scientist himself, although it would probably be fair to loosely call him a scientist as well.)
    - bostonpete 7y ago
      He also wasn't elderly when he wrote the first law in 1962.
    - mLuby 7y ago
      Good point, edited.
tempestn 7y ago
The point he's making isn't really that it's utterly impossible to get to an exoplanet though; it's that it would be completely impractical to migrate there en masse since it would take so long (if indeed we could get there at all), so we need to take care of the planet we have.
ThrowawayR2 7y ago
> ... When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. Plenty of distinguished but elderly scientists have said that the existence of ghosts is impossible. Therefore, in the view of people who quote Clarke's First Law, ghosts probably exist. tl;dr As Voltaire said "A witty saying proves nothing." (Aside from that, didn't we already discuss this not long ago in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21207011 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21207011 ?)

kingkawn 7y ago

Doesnt this negate itself?

mLuby 7y ago
Clarke said it's unlikely for a distinguished but elderly scientist to accurately predict what's unlikely. Clarke was a distinguished but elderly scientist. Therefore it's unlikely that Clarke accurately predicted what's unlikely?
- tempestn 7y ago
  Clarke stated that distinguished, elderly scientists claiming something is impossible are "very probably" wrong, not that it's impossible for them to be right. (Also he was more of a science fiction writer than a scientist himself, although it would probably be fair to loosely call him a scientist as well.)
  - bostonpete 7y ago
    He also wasn't elderly when he wrote the first law in 1962.
  - mLuby 7y ago
    Good point, edited.

tempestn 7y ago

The point he's making isn't really that it's utterly impossible to get to an exoplanet though; it's that it would be completely impractical to migrate there en masse since it would take so long (if indeed we could get there at all), so we need to take care of the planet we have.

ThrowawayR2 7y ago

> ... When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. Plenty of distinguished but elderly scientists have said that the existence of ghosts is impossible. Therefore, in the view of people who quote Clarke's First Law, ghosts probably exist. tl;dr As Voltaire said "A witty saying proves nothing." (Aside from that, didn't we already discuss this not long ago in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21207011 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21207011 ?)