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> Like all hypotheses, it cannot be proven true, only disproven by contradictory evidence. This is true, but not helpful, because it's a framework that treats
by comicjk 7y ago
> Like all hypotheses, it cannot be proven true, only disproven by contradictory evidence.
This is true, but not helpful, because it's a framework that treats all probabilities except 0 and 1 as equivalently vague. Anthropogenic climate change > 1℃ is extremely likely, 99%+ probability. It could be wrong, but it's not useful skepticism to just say "it could be wrong" about everything. The IPCC is putting out good probabilistic forecasts. Scientists are doing the work of testing the hypothesis. As new evidence comes out, we should respond to it. In the present, we have to act using the probabilities we have.
- akvadrako 7y ago99% probability is nothing - that's just 3 sigma. In real sciences you usually don't say something is highly likely until 5 sigma, which is 99.99994%.
- comicjk 7y ago"99% probability is nothing" is innumeracy. A demand for five sigma before taking action - treating probabilities between 0 and 99.9999% as equivalent - is defensible in a high-energy physics experiment, where adding another sigma just means collecting data for another month. But in most of life, demanding that level of certainty is a guarantee of mistakes: getting the extra certainty takes time, and inaction during that time is itself a decision that can be wrong. I don't know if you consider chemistry a real science, but my employer makes decisions based on probabilities less certain than 99% every day! We accept that sometimes we will be wrong, and plan so we can tolerate that too. This is how you use science in the real world.