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Right now very close to my house there is a gas and oil storage facility and a pipeline connected to it. The city, under pressure from activist groups, has dec

Right now very close to my house there is a gas and oil storage facility and a pipeline connected to it. The city, under pressure from activist groups, has declared a climate emergency. And yet, nobody has connected the dots on the fact that if we get off fossil fuels in a timely manner, that facility is going to close. Nobody is planning for it or expecting it. The company is not facing higher insurance rates and investors are not worried. Nobody has requested or made any plans for how the facility could be closed. And I see the same pattern worldwide: nobody is actually making the kinds of plans they would be making if they thought that some of the oil and gas was going to be made unavailable permanently. You would see that signal in the stock price of Exxon Mobil and the price of oil. This tells me one thing: the current plan is that we are going to extract and burn every last drop of fossil fuels everywhere in the world. That is, whatever anybody says, the current plan.

huffmsa 7y ago
Exxon is one of the top 5 investors in renewables research. They're not idiots, they know they're going to run out of oil, and they're legally obligated to make sure their shareholders don't lose all of their money. So they're preparing for the future.
- fallingfrog 7y ago
  All the fossil fuel deposits and companies in the world are worth probably at least 10 trillion dollars. Not to mention the value of all the businesses that depend on the products they sell. You think they’re going to just write that off? They’re going to fight with every bit of strength they have to make sure that the fuels are available to extract, and every government in the world is going to help them. I just want us to all understand what we’re up against.
  - huffmsa 7y ago
    They are going to, of course. But they're also looking forward to make sure they don't have to go bankrupt.
    - fallingfrog 7y ago
      I hope you’re right of course but from what I’ve seen over the last 20 years, most companies only look one quarter in the future, if that.
DFHippie 7y ago
"Plan" suggests people got together and arranged it. It is the generally acknowledged most likely outcome given our demonstrated inability to overcome the people attempting thwart collective action. Maybe this seems like a slim distinction, but I think it's important to say that not everyone recognizing the likelihood of this outcome is actively planning it.
- fallingfrog 7y ago
  Not everyone, just almost everyone with power.
kaybe 7y ago
If we do that we can get CO2 to 5000 ppm (currently at 410 ppm, cognitive impacts are observed from 1000 ppm (happens regularly in closed rooms full of people)). With that level we can melt down all of Antarctica. Yay.
- fallingfrog 7y ago
  5000 ppm would be significantly worse than that! According to a 2013 paper by James Hansen, burning all fossil fuels would result in 12 degrees C of warming, which would be hot enough that anyone living in the tropics or close to them would die immediately of heatstroke. So the number of people who would have to move would be in the billions. Also of course agriculture would collapse pretty much everywhere so you’d be looking at a planet that could support a few hundred million people.

huffmsa 7y ago

Exxon is one of the top 5 investors in renewables research. They're not idiots, they know they're going to run out of oil, and they're legally obligated to make sure their shareholders don't lose all of their money. So they're preparing for the future.

fallingfrog 7y ago
All the fossil fuel deposits and companies in the world are worth probably at least 10 trillion dollars. Not to mention the value of all the businesses that depend on the products they sell. You think they’re going to just write that off? They’re going to fight with every bit of strength they have to make sure that the fuels are available to extract, and every government in the world is going to help them. I just want us to all understand what we’re up against.
- huffmsa 7y ago
  They are going to, of course. But they're also looking forward to make sure they don't have to go bankrupt.
  - fallingfrog 7y ago
    I hope you’re right of course but from what I’ve seen over the last 20 years, most companies only look one quarter in the future, if that.

DFHippie 7y ago

"Plan" suggests people got together and arranged it. It is the generally acknowledged most likely outcome given our demonstrated inability to overcome the people attempting thwart collective action. Maybe this seems like a slim distinction, but I think it's important to say that not everyone recognizing the likelihood of this outcome is actively planning it.

fallingfrog 7y ago
Not everyone, just almost everyone with power.

kaybe 7y ago

If we do that we can get CO2 to 5000 ppm (currently at 410 ppm, cognitive impacts are observed from 1000 ppm (happens regularly in closed rooms full of people)). With that level we can melt down all of Antarctica. Yay.

fallingfrog 7y ago
5000 ppm would be significantly worse than that! According to a 2013 paper by James Hansen, burning all fossil fuels would result in 12 degrees C of warming, which would be hot enough that anyone living in the tropics or close to them would die immediately of heatstroke. So the number of people who would have to move would be in the billions. Also of course agriculture would collapse pretty much everywhere so you’d be looking at a planet that could support a few hundred million people.