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> Let's start with a test: Do you have any opinions that you would be reluctant to express in front of a group of your peers? > If the answer is no, you might
by baddox 7y ago
> Let's start with a test: Do you have any opinions that you would be reluctant to express in front of a group of your peers?
> If the answer is no, you might want to stop and think about that. If everything you believe is something you're supposed to believe, could that possibly be a coincidence? Odds are it isn't. Odds are you just think what you're told.
I’ve never quite understood this argument, because it seems to imply that people’s beliefs are or should be a random, unpredictable process, and that any regularity in the data should be treated with apprehension. But if beliefs are not in fact random, but can be guided by some common forces, then it wouldn’t be strange to expect people’s beliefs to in some cases largely converge. Should I “stop and think about” the fact that I oppose murder, even though my parents and all my friends and even most of my “enemies” hold that same belief?” Of course not.
- lmm 7y agoIf someone claimed to have done detailed fundamentals analysis on which stocks to buy, and the recommended portfolio they came up with was exactly the S&P 500, you'd be dubious that they'd actually done the analysis, right? If someone was doing a book report and came up with exactly the same analysis as a well-known essay, you'd be sceptical that they'd read the book themselves. Of course there's an underlying reality and you'd expect everyone to come up with the same broad themes. But there's enough noise that you also expect individuals to come up with some idiosyncratic differences.
- baddox 7y agoThere are obviously different levels of detail. I would be suspicious if two book reports contained significant passages with the exact same phrasing. I wouldn’t be surprised if two book reports for the same book noticed very similar themes.