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The President can't realistically order a first-strike and then cause it to actually happen. No matter who the President might be, no one in the armed forces,

The President can't realistically order a first-strike and then cause it to actually happen. No matter who the President might be, no one in the armed forces, is going to go along. For similar reasons, the President could not fail to launch a retaliatory strike if another nation launches a first-strike on the U.S.: the armed forces would force him/her to do so in that case. The best he/she could do is hold back until the first-strike is confirmed to the point where they can no longer hold back. And whatever else you might think about the current President, he's been trying to extricate the U.S. from current wars, and he's declined opportunities to start a war against Iran or NK, so why would you be more afraid of him launching a first-strike than any other President? Ah, but you're not necessarily worried about Trump, but about a future President "as egotistical, narcissistic and unstable as Trump". Still, see above.

dividedbyzero 7y ago
I hope you're right and a launch order out of the blue wouldn't be carried out. What about high-tension situations, though? President Trump has been warlike mostly on Twitter so far, but he is beyond doubt a very temperamental person, one who takes a very aggressive stand at times, and I could see him escalating conflicts very far, very quickly, unwittingly to a point where another side may interpret things in a way that favors a first strike. His cabinet and critical staff are have many very inexperienced people, it's been reported that State and Defense have lost many highly competent career civil servants to industry; all that might result in a very fast-evolving situation driven by people with very limited situational awareness and experience in such matters, without the personnel to effectively intervene. And, according to the article, the decision whether to take a Tweet alluding to, say, an impending first strike for face value or not, and whether to launch preemptively or not, would have to be taken within minutes. That's deeply scary.

dividedbyzero 7y ago

I hope you're right and a launch order out of the blue wouldn't be carried out. What about high-tension situations, though? President Trump has been warlike mostly on Twitter so far, but he is beyond doubt a very temperamental person, one who takes a very aggressive stand at times, and I could see him escalating conflicts very far, very quickly, unwittingly to a point where another side may interpret things in a way that favors a first strike. His cabinet and critical staff are have many very inexperienced people, it's been reported that State and Defense have lost many highly competent career civil servants to industry; all that might result in a very fast-evolving situation driven by people with very limited situational awareness and experience in such matters, without the personnel to effectively intervene. And, according to the article, the decision whether to take a Tweet alluding to, say, an impending first strike for face value or not, and whether to launch preemptively or not, would have to be taken within minutes. That's deeply scary.