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The reliability of the grid is a combination of the technical reliability of the grid and the social ability to reliably coordinate the resources needed to oper

The reliability of the grid is a combination of the technical reliability of the grid and the social ability to reliably coordinate the resources needed to operate the grid. You need both systems to work in order for electricity to flow. As you point out, there's nothing wrong with the grid on a technical level. But the social element failed, so electricity stopped flowing. When the electricity stops, it doesn't really matter whether the power is off because of a technical or a human problem. The lights go off either way. The wind that shut grid blew at 10MPH. (Granted, it was forecast at up to 45MPH.) Did we not see winds of this strength during the 120 years* that we didn't shut down the grid over human coordination failures? If PG&E had to shut down the grid to avoid fire in light to moderate winds, it was because the people operating the grid were unable to coordinate the resources needed to operate safely under these conditions. What we've seen here is a breakdown of human systems that used to work reliably. We used to be able to operate an electricity grid reliably in moderately windy conditions. Now we can't. That should worry everyone. * Yes, I know about Enron. That we've had two grid failures in 20 years due to human-coordination breakdown is a huge red flag. Edit: phrasing, note that the winds were forecast to be stronger than what we ended up seeing

mullingitover 7y ago
Where are you getting this 10mph number? There's a wind advisory in effect with gusts peaking between 35-45mph this morning[1]. > NWS forecasts call for winds to be slightly weaker Thursday throughout the Sacramento Valley than they were Wednesday, but a wind advisory remains in effect through 6 p.m. as gusts between 40 and 55 mph remain possible. [1] https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article235955937.html https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article23595593...
- quotemstr 7y ago
  I was reading https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/pge-cuts-power-to-millions-in-california-amid-hot-windy-weather.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/pge-cuts-power-to-millions-i..., particularly this bit: " Wara said a forecast Tuesday night showed winds in Mt. Tamalpais, a nearby mountain, were less than 10 mph (16 kph). “There is zero wind where I live,” Wara said. “PG&E is required to shut down based on observed conditions, not forecast conditions.”" The article goes on to mention forecasts of 35-45mph gusts. I'll edit my original post. My point stands: whether we're talking about 10mph winds or 45mph winds, we're talking about weather within the normal range of variation and conditions that electricity grids elsewhere handle admirably.
  - danans 7y ago
    > within the normal range of variation and conditions that electricity grids elsewhere handle admirably. California has very different conditions than most other places in the US. It gets no rain for 9 months a year followed by a wet winter which results in a lot of vegetation growth. And that pattern is getting more extreme. You can't compare that to a wetter place, or even to a much dryer place with little vegetation.
danans 7y ago
> Did we not see 10MPH winds during the 120 years* that we didn't shut down the grid over human coordination failures? How can you be so sure that many major fires in PGE territory over the last 120 years weren't caused by utility equipment? And why do you assume that conditions haven't changed over the last 120 years in a way that makes fires more likely or the damage to humans more extensive and expensive?

mullingitover 7y ago

Where are you getting this 10mph number? There's a wind advisory in effect with gusts peaking between 35-45mph this morning[1]. > NWS forecasts call for winds to be slightly weaker Thursday throughout the Sacramento Valley than they were Wednesday, but a wind advisory remains in effect through 6 p.m. as gusts between 40 and 55 mph remain possible. [1] https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article235955937.html https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article23595593...

quotemstr 7y ago
I was reading https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/pge-cuts-power-to-millions-in-california-amid-hot-windy-weather.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/pge-cuts-power-to-millions-i..., particularly this bit: " Wara said a forecast Tuesday night showed winds in Mt. Tamalpais, a nearby mountain, were less than 10 mph (16 kph). “There is zero wind where I live,” Wara said. “PG&E is required to shut down based on observed conditions, not forecast conditions.”" The article goes on to mention forecasts of 35-45mph gusts. I'll edit my original post. My point stands: whether we're talking about 10mph winds or 45mph winds, we're talking about weather within the normal range of variation and conditions that electricity grids elsewhere handle admirably.
- danans 7y ago
  > within the normal range of variation and conditions that electricity grids elsewhere handle admirably. California has very different conditions than most other places in the US. It gets no rain for 9 months a year followed by a wet winter which results in a lot of vegetation growth. And that pattern is getting more extreme. You can't compare that to a wetter place, or even to a much dryer place with little vegetation.

danans 7y ago

> Did we not see 10MPH winds during the 120 years* that we didn't shut down the grid over human coordination failures? How can you be so sure that many major fires in PGE territory over the last 120 years weren't caused by utility equipment? And why do you assume that conditions haven't changed over the last 120 years in a way that makes fires more likely or the damage to humans more extensive and expensive?