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Where is the market among the HN community on betting this proof is correct (or the market for P=NP in general)? My bid/ask is 0% / 0.02% I think I'd wager at
by leelin 16y ago
Where is the market among the HN community on betting this proof is correct (or the market for P=NP in general)?
My bid/ask is 0% / 0.02%
I think I'd wager at most a 1% chance that P = NP, and, I'll be generous and put the odds that this particular person cracked it first at 2% of 1% (I know he has code posted, but think of all the smart people who failed, and within my 1% is the case where P=NP but no human ever proves it). Would anyone offer better odds than 1 in 5,000, or make a bid?
My knowledge is limited to taking Sipser's intro class in school; but as a programmer, I always find subset-sum to be the most tangible and convincing example that NP-hard feels pretty tough.
I love these announcements though; I am always humbled and fascinated by the resulting discussion.
- caf 16y agoI believe Intrade are open to suggestions for new markets (they have "Scientific" category where this would fit).
- bravura 16y agohttp://www.longbets.org/ http://www.longbets.org/ is a market for long bets, e.g. “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” PREDICTOR: Warren Buffett CHALLENGER: Protege Partners, LLC
- khafra 16y agoCosts $50 to publish a bet there, though, so transaction costs would eat up anything but a very, very large bet at 0.2%
- eru 16y agoI'd put some money on `He hasn't proved P=NP.' as long as the odds are greater than zero.