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> I had a turning point with climate change when I realized carbon emissions almost definitely won't transform Earth into a martian wasteland incapable of suppo

> I had a turning point with climate change when I realized carbon emissions almost definitely won't transform Earth into a martian wasteland incapable of supporting life. The natural ecosystem adapts to ice ages, meteors, and other world altering events, and the planet without us would probably revert to something lush and diverse in a few millennia. No. Depending on how bad warming gets, it will take on the order of millions of years for biodiversity to recover. The worst mass extinction was the Permian-Triassic where something like 95% of aquatic species and over 75% of terrestrial species went extinct. That took a long, long time to recover from. You are correct that life will probably go on without us. But what I think a lot of people fail to realize is that we're looking at the collapse of human civilization somewhere on the horizon, and human extinction after that if we don't change course.

bendbro 7y ago
> collapse of human civilization somewhere on the horizon, and human extinction after that if we don't change course From what I have read, this is not true. Some humans will potentially suffer, but we are nowhere near mass extinctions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming
- triceratops 7y ago
  "By 2050, between 350 million and 601 million people [in Africa] are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change"[1] "Climate change is projected to decrease freshwater availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins. With population growth and increasing demand from higher standards of living, this decrease could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s."[2] I understand this may not affect you personally. But don't just dismiss it as "some humans will potentially suffer". Billions will suffer, most of whom (being from developing countries) aren't at all responsible for the catastrophe that will befall them. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_warming#Impacts_on_Africa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_w... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_warming#Impacts_on_Asia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_w...
- GVIrish 7y ago
  We are already in the middle of a mass extinction caused by human activity. Even in the wikipedia article you linked it talks about extinctions of 40% of species if we get to 3 degrees of warming. There is high variance in estimates about loss of biodiversity, but if you start looking at what happens to plants and animals with climate shifts there is a tremendous and almost unfathomable risk there. Many species depend on certain temperature ranges for key parts of their life cycle. Fruits don't develop in the temperature is too hot or too cold. Many animals that depend on that fruit, end up starving if those fruits don't develop. Then there's the fact that any organism can only take but so much heat. In heatwaves there's a temperature beyond which is lethal for many organisms. And if heatwaves arrive during breeding season, the young of many animals will be particularly hard hit. When you get to the oceans, increased acidity due to carbon absorption will lead to fisheries collapse and the extinction of corals. Ocean acidification will prevent many forms of plankton from forming their shells, which undercuts many open ocean ecocystems. Something like a billion people depend on fish as their primary protein source. As for humanity, people are really focused on where climate will be in 2100. But what happens in 2200, 2300, 2400 and on if we don't get things under control? CO2 can stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years. So if humanity doesn't curtail emissions and temperatures rise by 3 or 4 degrees, it's going to stay at least that hot for millenia. But even worse, all the methane that will get released by thawing permaforst will accelerate warming even beyond that. Melted glaciers and sea ice means less sunlight will be reflected back into space, which will cause even more warming.

bendbro 7y ago

> collapse of human civilization somewhere on the horizon, and human extinction after that if we don't change course From what I have read, this is not true. Some humans will potentially suffer, but we are nowhere near mass extinctions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming

triceratops 7y ago
"By 2050, between 350 million and 601 million people [in Africa] are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change"[1] "Climate change is projected to decrease freshwater availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins. With population growth and increasing demand from higher standards of living, this decrease could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s."[2] I understand this may not affect you personally. But don't just dismiss it as "some humans will potentially suffer". Billions will suffer, most of whom (being from developing countries) aren't at all responsible for the catastrophe that will befall them. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_warming#Impacts_on_Africa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_w... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_warming#Impacts_on_Asia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_global_w...
GVIrish 7y ago
We are already in the middle of a mass extinction caused by human activity. Even in the wikipedia article you linked it talks about extinctions of 40% of species if we get to 3 degrees of warming. There is high variance in estimates about loss of biodiversity, but if you start looking at what happens to plants and animals with climate shifts there is a tremendous and almost unfathomable risk there. Many species depend on certain temperature ranges for key parts of their life cycle. Fruits don't develop in the temperature is too hot or too cold. Many animals that depend on that fruit, end up starving if those fruits don't develop. Then there's the fact that any organism can only take but so much heat. In heatwaves there's a temperature beyond which is lethal for many organisms. And if heatwaves arrive during breeding season, the young of many animals will be particularly hard hit. When you get to the oceans, increased acidity due to carbon absorption will lead to fisheries collapse and the extinction of corals. Ocean acidification will prevent many forms of plankton from forming their shells, which undercuts many open ocean ecocystems. Something like a billion people depend on fish as their primary protein source. As for humanity, people are really focused on where climate will be in 2100. But what happens in 2200, 2300, 2400 and on if we don't get things under control? CO2 can stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years. So if humanity doesn't curtail emissions and temperatures rise by 3 or 4 degrees, it's going to stay at least that hot for millenia. But even worse, all the methane that will get released by thawing permaforst will accelerate warming even beyond that. Melted glaciers and sea ice means less sunlight will be reflected back into space, which will cause even more warming.