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The decline of US coal production is right there in the page that you linked to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_mining_in_the_United_States#Production http

The decline of US coal production is right there in the page that you linked to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_mining_in_the_United_States#Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_mining_in_the_United_Stat... American coal production peaked in 2008 at 1.172 billion short tons. Domestic use peaked in 2006 at 1.150 billion short tons. As of 2018 those numbers are down to 0.755 and 0.678 billion tons short tons respectively. The EIA's latest Short Term Energy Outlook predicts that total US coal production for 2019 will be 0.679 billion short tons and for 2020 will be 0.603 billion short tons, 48% below the peak. If you look at the "components of annual change" graphic in the EIA report, you can see that coking coal (used for making steel) is up slightly from 2017-2020. It's coal consumption for electric power that is in persistent decline. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php Coal supplies about 25% of American electricity in 2019 and is expected to decline to 22% in 2020: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php Percentage-wise, coal reached its all time high in the mid-1990s, at over 50% of American electricity generation: https://www.mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/MJBAcoalretirementissuebrief.pdf https://www.mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/MJBAcoalretire... The Jevons Paradox observes the introduction of more efficient technology in an existing system but finds a "paradoxical" uptick in input consumption. The introduction of more efficient coal burning machinery in England was followed by higher coal consumption. That surprised Jevons. The broadening of energy use (e.g. India developing like England did) certainly also increases demand for energy inputs, but it's a different case than the Jevons Paradox.

roenxi 7y ago
Which is meaningless unless you believe that energy efficiency has only happened in the 2008-2018 period, which is not true. I happened to be working in the coal industry for most of that time and the decline isn't because people are using 40% less energy. It has nothing to do with increased efficiency. It has to do with: 1) Political action. 2) Alternative energy sources getting more competitive. Particularly natural gas, renewables and US shale oil. You're arguing that use-of-energy efficiency can cause a decline in coal production. That is wrong; if you use energy more efficiently I'll mine more coal - I've met the people who make that sort of decision. Coal is declining for other reasons - mainly that alternative sources are getting cheaper (which is not using energy more efficiently).
- philipkglass 7y ago
  I did not say that greater efficiency in coal use was the cause of US coal's decline. My last post was contra to: Take a look at US coal production [0]. There is no evidence there that energy use from coal will decrease with improved technology. There is ample evidence that improved technology is driving declines in American coal use/production. The combined cycle gas turbine made it possible to extract more electricity from a megajoule (thermal) of natural gas than a megajoule of coal. Hydraulic fracturing made natural gas cheap in the US. Improved technologies and economies of scale made wind and solar electricity more efficient and cheaper. These are all electricity production technologies. They are what what I had in mind with my up-thread Alice and Bob example. US electricity production is getting more efficient (more electricity per ton of material inputs consumed); Bob believes that any efficiency increase must be more-than-offset by increased electricity consumption, and exclaims "Jevons Paradox!" before even reviewing the numbers.

roenxi 7y ago

Which is meaningless unless you believe that energy efficiency has only happened in the 2008-2018 period, which is not true. I happened to be working in the coal industry for most of that time and the decline isn't because people are using 40% less energy. It has nothing to do with increased efficiency. It has to do with: 1) Political action. 2) Alternative energy sources getting more competitive. Particularly natural gas, renewables and US shale oil. You're arguing that use-of-energy efficiency can cause a decline in coal production. That is wrong; if you use energy more efficiently I'll mine more coal - I've met the people who make that sort of decision. Coal is declining for other reasons - mainly that alternative sources are getting cheaper (which is not using energy more efficiently).

philipkglass 7y ago
I did not say that greater efficiency in coal use was the cause of US coal's decline. My last post was contra to: Take a look at US coal production [0]. There is no evidence there that energy use from coal will decrease with improved technology. There is ample evidence that improved technology is driving declines in American coal use/production. The combined cycle gas turbine made it possible to extract more electricity from a megajoule (thermal) of natural gas than a megajoule of coal. Hydraulic fracturing made natural gas cheap in the US. Improved technologies and economies of scale made wind and solar electricity more efficient and cheaper. These are all electricity production technologies. They are what what I had in mind with my up-thread Alice and Bob example. US electricity production is getting more efficient (more electricity per ton of material inputs consumed); Bob believes that any efficiency increase must be more-than-offset by increased electricity consumption, and exclaims "Jevons Paradox!" before even reviewing the numbers.