Other than for fun and to donate to a good cause, I'm not sure why anyone would ever take the other side of a bet like this or the follow up one for the case of

Other than for fun and to donate to a good cause, I'm not sure why anyone would ever take the other side of a bet like this or the follow up one for the case of wine. The author is basically betting against an unlikely outcome and the challenger is betting on it, with no adjustment for the likelihood. This would be like offering a bet that a particular college football team won't win a national championship and getting even money that they will. I realize this is outside the scope of the article, but I think it's worth noting because the author gets outsized credit for being correct despite not really offering an alternative. To be fair the author should have had to bet an alternate area that would win a Nobel prize before 2020, otherwise it's a push and each person's stake goes to charity.