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note that the drake equation gives the number of currently communicating civilizations. if you think there are 10 communicating civilizations now, each communi
by exit 16y ago
note that the drake equation gives the number of currently communicating civilizations.
if you think there are 10 communicating civilizations now, each communicating for 10000 years, then there should have been quite a few such civilizations in the 13000000000 year history of our milky way galaxy.
if the parameters provided apply for 1% of the milky ways history, we would expect 13000 communicating civilizations in total.
i would imagine any communicating civilization lasting 10000 years would also develop self reproducing space probes, thus becoming a permanent feature.
- narag 16y agoWhen first stars appeared they were made out of hydrogen. It seems that you have to wait for second or third generation stars (formed from rests of previous defunct stars) in order to have heavy elements that would form planets and allow life. We could be the first, or one of the first civilizations in the galaxy. Trouble with the equation is that it does make nobody happy. As we are knowing better some factors (like how many stars have planets) it seems that life should be everywhere. But it's enough that one the still unknown unknowns is worse than we think, to make the density as low as a few dozen civilizations in the galaxy. That's too far for us to communicate in a 10.000 years scale. BTW, I find this 10.000 number is cruft from cold war era. Some people love the extintion idea, not sure why.