4 ms·

Hardly. Mutually Assured Damage, with the US clearly coming out on top. There are plenty of other places to make cheap goods, even disregarding increasing autom

Hardly. Mutually Assured Damage, with the US clearly coming out on top. There are plenty of other places to make cheap goods, even disregarding increasing automation. There are not as many places to sell cheap goods by the trillions.

semiotagonal 7y ago
In the long term, it isn't even necessarily damage. Chinese manufacturing won't be cheap forever; wages are already too high there for them to continue sorting through and recycling the US's plastic. Rebooting US manufacturing earlier rather than later will make the transition to "expensive China" less of a jolt.
- shkkmo 7y ago
  Moving manufacturing out of China is not synonymous with moving manufacturing into the US. A great deal of that manufacturing would move to other countries with cheap labor and burgeoning supply chains.
TaylorAlexander 7y ago
I wouldn't underestimate the quality of the supply chains in China. They've had decades of development and experience, and starting elsewhere could not be done without significant setbacks.
- gamblor956 7y ago
  China's a great place to make something cheap that doesn't last very long. It's not a great place to make something that needs to last. It's an even worse place to make something that needs to meet quality standards, since you spend as much or more on QA than you saved by moving manufacturing to China.
  - lonelappde 7y ago
    China makes things as good or bad as the client wants. My 12 yr old laptop was made in China.
- patagurbon 7y ago
  Oh certainly. That’s what I meant by mutually assured damage. It wouldn’t be painless for either side. But I’d make the argument that it’s far more harmful to China. The US was in a much better position when they ceased to be the industrial center of the world. Then again, we’ve never seen a nation like China.
patfla 7y ago
Some low-end production had already been moving to places like Vietnam, based on labor costs where Chinese labor costs are now > places like Vietnam (and have been for a while). Trump's trade war has accelerated the trend. Arguing the other way is that you have suppliers for, say in electronics, literally everything in places like Guangdong. So that's a disincentive to move.
mmsimanga 7y ago
In Africa we have started to speak of China as the modern age colonizers. They are appearing everywhere, building roads, airports, dams and coal fired power stations. They bring all their equipment. We have challenges with governance (understatement). In my home country we have severe power shortages, daily power cuts lasting up 18 hours. Chinese are building a power station. So picture the day we try assert some right and China just switches off the power. This kind of scenario is playing itself out in Africa and I fear by the time we wake up China will own the continent. I exaggerate but I think you get my point.
- pinkfoot 7y ago
  s/we have/some of us, actually just a small minority on Twitter, have/
  - mmsimanga 7y ago
    Twitter doesn't build power stations. Its pretty hard to miss the ground being cleared as the power station is being built.
    - pinkfoot 7y ago
      Where I live, Hitachi build the power stations. So we all now also believe the Japanese are colonising Africa? Outside of Twitter 'building complex machines for a fee != colonisation'.
      - mmsimanga 7y ago
        You missed the part where I said in Africa we have governance challenges. 99 year lease of Sri Lanka Hambantota port is modern day colonization.
        pinkfoot 7y ago
        Just to be clear, Ski Lanka is not Africa. All debts have collateral. Don't sign up to loans you cannot afford. Any don't vote in governments that do. [And don't stuff up the maintenance of your infrastructure to the point you don't have electricity for 18 hours. It wasn't like that when it was commissioned.] Then you won't need to take deals on onerous conditions. The Swiss don't.
pinkfoot 7y ago
If I was a Chinese strategist, I would announce a root and branch re-certification of the 737-MAX (in Chinese of course) as a completely new type. Especially have just buttered up Airbus with 300 A320 orders in March. And even more so if I was convinced the C919 will certify in 2021. There also aren't many places to sell aircraft by the hundreds.

semiotagonal 7y ago

In the long term, it isn't even necessarily damage. Chinese manufacturing won't be cheap forever; wages are already too high there for them to continue sorting through and recycling the US's plastic. Rebooting US manufacturing earlier rather than later will make the transition to "expensive China" less of a jolt.

shkkmo 7y ago
Moving manufacturing out of China is not synonymous with moving manufacturing into the US. A great deal of that manufacturing would move to other countries with cheap labor and burgeoning supply chains.

TaylorAlexander 7y ago

I wouldn't underestimate the quality of the supply chains in China. They've had decades of development and experience, and starting elsewhere could not be done without significant setbacks.

gamblor956 7y ago
China's a great place to make something cheap that doesn't last very long. It's not a great place to make something that needs to last. It's an even worse place to make something that needs to meet quality standards, since you spend as much or more on QA than you saved by moving manufacturing to China.
- lonelappde 7y ago
  China makes things as good or bad as the client wants. My 12 yr old laptop was made in China.
patagurbon 7y ago
Oh certainly. That’s what I meant by mutually assured damage. It wouldn’t be painless for either side. But I’d make the argument that it’s far more harmful to China. The US was in a much better position when they ceased to be the industrial center of the world. Then again, we’ve never seen a nation like China.

patfla 7y ago

Some low-end production had already been moving to places like Vietnam, based on labor costs where Chinese labor costs are now > places like Vietnam (and have been for a while). Trump's trade war has accelerated the trend. Arguing the other way is that you have suppliers for, say in electronics, literally everything in places like Guangdong. So that's a disincentive to move.

mmsimanga 7y ago

In Africa we have started to speak of China as the modern age colonizers. They are appearing everywhere, building roads, airports, dams and coal fired power stations. They bring all their equipment. We have challenges with governance (understatement). In my home country we have severe power shortages, daily power cuts lasting up 18 hours. Chinese are building a power station. So picture the day we try assert some right and China just switches off the power. This kind of scenario is playing itself out in Africa and I fear by the time we wake up China will own the continent. I exaggerate but I think you get my point.

pinkfoot 7y ago
s/we have/some of us, actually just a small minority on Twitter, have/
- mmsimanga 7y ago
  Twitter doesn't build power stations. Its pretty hard to miss the ground being cleared as the power station is being built.
  - pinkfoot 7y ago
    Where I live, Hitachi build the power stations. So we all now also believe the Japanese are colonising Africa? Outside of Twitter 'building complex machines for a fee != colonisation'.
    - mmsimanga 7y ago
      You missed the part where I said in Africa we have governance challenges. 99 year lease of Sri Lanka Hambantota port is modern day colonization.
      - pinkfoot 7y ago
        Just to be clear, Ski Lanka is not Africa. All debts have collateral. Don't sign up to loans you cannot afford. Any don't vote in governments that do. [And don't stuff up the maintenance of your infrastructure to the point you don't have electricity for 18 hours. It wasn't like that when it was commissioned.] Then you won't need to take deals on onerous conditions. The Swiss don't.

pinkfoot 7y ago

If I was a Chinese strategist, I would announce a root and branch re-certification of the 737-MAX (in Chinese of course) as a completely new type. Especially have just buttered up Airbus with 300 A320 orders in March. And even more so if I was convinced the C919 will certify in 2021. There also aren't many places to sell aircraft by the hundreds.