5 ms·

> Its nice to see this reality (of how extrapolating is bad because things change) ...but when they do that same thing on earth temperature everyone loses his

> Its nice to see this reality (of how extrapolating is bad because things change) ...but when they do that same thing on earth temperature everyone loses his mind

orthecreedence 7y ago
"Gee, why is there a pool of water on the floor ever since the rain started? Do you think maybe the roof is leaking?" "Don't be silly! Just because there is water dripping from the ceiling doesn't mean there is a leak in the roof. Things just get wet sometimes. I'm sure there's a wonderful explanation besides the roof leaking. No sense in hiring someone to come look at the roof either. That would be a waste of resources."
- LoSboccacc 7y ago
  case in point - did I say I am not believing that climate is changing? but no, as soon as one contest the wild exponential predictions, he gets scourged.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    The pessimistic outcome of climate change isn't "wild exponential predictions", though. There are well-understood mechanisms, the margin for temperature increase beyond which modern society collapses is pretty thin, the exponent comes primarily[0] from our economy which has an assumption of exponential growth built-in and will collapse if it suddenly turns into s-curve, and we also have a model of a runaway warming feedback loop as our neighbor in the Solar System. Also worth remembering is that climate change isn't really about climate. It's about our society. Earth doesn't care about temperature, and life on Earth will happily survive whatever we can possibly throw at it this century. All that matters is that climate change puts pressure on societies around the world, and with enough pressure our entire civilization will collapse, and you and me and everyone else we know will die a horrible death. -- [0] - There are also environmental feedback loops ready to take over the growth of average temperature that have gained attention recently.
    - mrep 7y ago
      What climate change effect [0] do you think will cause societal collapse or result in mass horrible deaths? [0]: https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
      - dane-pgp 7y ago
        > For example, at the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice, average temperatures were only 5 to 9 degrees [Fahrenheit] cooler than today. If 4 degrees Celsius of global cooling (relative to the current climate) can cause large parts of the US to be covered by 3,000 feet of ice, then it's not unreasonable to think that 4 degrees Celsius of global warming could have an equally destructive effect on agriculture and society.
      - TeMPOraL 7y ago
        Hundreds of millions of people migrating from areas that become uninhabitable from sea level rise and increased temperatures, trying to get into any country that's less affected. Europe just almost tore itself apart over few million war refugees, imagine 100 times more people, with nothing to lose and a valid argument that it's all our fault they don't have a home now. Food pressure, as arable land is lost to the sea and temperatures[0], plus collapsing ecosystems as insects and plants with high vulnerability to temperatures die off. Food prices increase, risk of food shortage increases too, and so does social unrest. As some land is lost, other land becomes available, "defrosted" by the changing climate. With reduced agricultural capability and migratory pressures, nations will want to compete for both that new land and resources available on it. This could lead to war. I could elaborate, but let me instead tell you to look at the problem in reverse: think of how little it takes to cause "mass horrible deaths". Most people live in cities now, and most cities are fed "just-in-time", which means there's 3-5 days worth of food in them. Imagine what happens if you break that supply chain for more than a week. Imagine this happening to multiple cities in a country simultaneously. -- [0] - You can't e.g. think that a +4°C Poland can just switch from wheat to bananas. Bananas may like the new summers, but won't survive the winters.
IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
The heat-trapping behaviour of CO_2 was first accurately measured in the 19th century, and all climate change models do actually predict convergence, not linear rise. It's just that the point of convergence is not one compatible with civilisation as we know it.
- tialaramex 7y ago
  Exactly. If global warming said the typical outside temperature in Seattle doubles to almost 600K then it'd be fair to argue that's crazy people extrapolating - water isn't even liquid at that temperature, no model we have could make sense. But actually the model says it will go up say 2 or 3K. Much less like a wild extrapolation, and unfortunately still completely terrifying because that is already far too much.
  - souprock 7y ago
    2 or 3K really isn't enough for Seattle.
- goatlover 7y ago
  How does anyone know what temperature rise is or isn't compatible with civilization as we know it, within the range of predicted temperature rises? One of the problems is that civilization is dynamic. New technologies come along, people change their habits, etc.
  - dane-pgp 7y ago
    The effects of temperature rises on crop yields could lead to very negative outcomes, given expected population growth and the hard limit of humans' minimum caloric intake. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/for-crop-harvests-every-degree-of-warming-counts/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/for-crop-harvests... Perhaps rich countries can mitigate the likely increase in food prices, but it could destabilise large regions of the globe.

> Its nice to see this reality (of how extrapolating is bad because things change) ...but when they do that same thing on earth temperature everyone loses his mind

orthecreedence 7y ago

"Gee, why is there a pool of water on the floor ever since the rain started? Do you think maybe the roof is leaking?" "Don't be silly! Just because there is water dripping from the ceiling doesn't mean there is a leak in the roof. Things just get wet sometimes. I'm sure there's a wonderful explanation besides the roof leaking. No sense in hiring someone to come look at the roof either. That would be a waste of resources."

LoSboccacc 7y ago
case in point - did I say I am not believing that climate is changing? but no, as soon as one contest the wild exponential predictions, he gets scourged.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  The pessimistic outcome of climate change isn't "wild exponential predictions", though. There are well-understood mechanisms, the margin for temperature increase beyond which modern society collapses is pretty thin, the exponent comes primarily[0] from our economy which has an assumption of exponential growth built-in and will collapse if it suddenly turns into s-curve, and we also have a model of a runaway warming feedback loop as our neighbor in the Solar System. Also worth remembering is that climate change isn't really about climate. It's about our society. Earth doesn't care about temperature, and life on Earth will happily survive whatever we can possibly throw at it this century. All that matters is that climate change puts pressure on societies around the world, and with enough pressure our entire civilization will collapse, and you and me and everyone else we know will die a horrible death. -- [0] - There are also environmental feedback loops ready to take over the growth of average temperature that have gained attention recently.
  - mrep 7y ago
    What climate change effect [0] do you think will cause societal collapse or result in mass horrible deaths? [0]: https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
    - dane-pgp 7y ago
      > For example, at the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice, average temperatures were only 5 to 9 degrees [Fahrenheit] cooler than today. If 4 degrees Celsius of global cooling (relative to the current climate) can cause large parts of the US to be covered by 3,000 feet of ice, then it's not unreasonable to think that 4 degrees Celsius of global warming could have an equally destructive effect on agriculture and society.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      Hundreds of millions of people migrating from areas that become uninhabitable from sea level rise and increased temperatures, trying to get into any country that's less affected. Europe just almost tore itself apart over few million war refugees, imagine 100 times more people, with nothing to lose and a valid argument that it's all our fault they don't have a home now. Food pressure, as arable land is lost to the sea and temperatures[0], plus collapsing ecosystems as insects and plants with high vulnerability to temperatures die off. Food prices increase, risk of food shortage increases too, and so does social unrest. As some land is lost, other land becomes available, "defrosted" by the changing climate. With reduced agricultural capability and migratory pressures, nations will want to compete for both that new land and resources available on it. This could lead to war. I could elaborate, but let me instead tell you to look at the problem in reverse: think of how little it takes to cause "mass horrible deaths". Most people live in cities now, and most cities are fed "just-in-time", which means there's 3-5 days worth of food in them. Imagine what happens if you break that supply chain for more than a week. Imagine this happening to multiple cities in a country simultaneously. -- [0] - You can't e.g. think that a +4°C Poland can just switch from wheat to bananas. Bananas may like the new summers, but won't survive the winters.

IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago

The heat-trapping behaviour of CO_2 was first accurately measured in the 19th century, and all climate change models do actually predict convergence, not linear rise. It's just that the point of convergence is not one compatible with civilisation as we know it.

tialaramex 7y ago
Exactly. If global warming said the typical outside temperature in Seattle doubles to almost 600K then it'd be fair to argue that's crazy people extrapolating - water isn't even liquid at that temperature, no model we have could make sense. But actually the model says it will go up say 2 or 3K. Much less like a wild extrapolation, and unfortunately still completely terrifying because that is already far too much.
- souprock 7y ago
  2 or 3K really isn't enough for Seattle.
goatlover 7y ago
How does anyone know what temperature rise is or isn't compatible with civilization as we know it, within the range of predicted temperature rises? One of the problems is that civilization is dynamic. New technologies come along, people change their habits, etc.
- dane-pgp 7y ago
  The effects of temperature rises on crop yields could lead to very negative outcomes, given expected population growth and the hard limit of humans' minimum caloric intake. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/for-crop-harvests-every-degree-of-warming-counts/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/for-crop-harvests... Perhaps rich countries can mitigate the likely increase in food prices, but it could destabilise large regions of the globe.