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I doubt it. This is just, like, my opinion, man, but I think the Chinese would walk away from any company in the world in an instant if it suits their security

I doubt it. This is just, like, my opinion, man, but I think the Chinese would walk away from any company in the world in an instant if it suits their security needs. If their economic ministry is doing its job then they will have detailed contingency plans to address the loss of any of their major foreign benefactors, and if required those jobs can be replaced with state handouts, at least until the crisis passes. If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now.

braythwayt 7y ago
This may be just like, your opinion, but it really ties the room's arguments together.
inferiorhuman 7y ago
If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now. Didn't Apple start ramping up iPhone production in India recently? I agree that China is likely to retaliate but I imagine whatever decision making process there was for approving this HK app involved plenty of lawyers and analysis of potential fallout.
- cushychicken 7y ago
  Many companies are ramping up electronics production outside of China as a hedge against tariffs.
- scarface74 7y ago
  Not at any particular scale -- just enough to avoid import tariffs and keep the local politicians happy. The same thing that you see in the US for military contracts. Apple is also paying lip service to "manufacturing in the US" by manufacturing the low volume, high margin Mac Pros. Not meant to be a value judgement, knowing how to placate politicians is necessary when you operate at scale.
  - inferiorhuman 7y ago
    Not at any particular scale -- just enough to avoid import tariffs and keep the local politicians happy. My understanding is that the Indian built phones were destined for the EU market which isn't engaged in a trade war with India or China.
throw0101a 7y ago
> If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now. You're not wrong, but if people see that China is willing to shutdown someone as big as Apple, then they'll know that everyone else (who is probably smaller) stand no chance at all. People may start re-evaluating the (economic / supply-chain) risks they're will to take at that point.
- Scramblejams 7y ago
  I’d hope what's happening now is already enough for everyone to reevaluate those risks! In any case, threatening to shut Apple down wouldn’t be a message that you can’t do business in China, just that everybody, no matter how big, needs to toe the line. Do that, and you won’t have any problems.
  - derf_ 7y ago
    > everybody, no matter how big, needs to toe the line. Do that, and you won’t have any problems. And maybe you're fine with that today. But once you've ceded that ground, what happens when they move the line? Because they always move the line.
    - StudentStuff 7y ago
      As technology and finances have enabled China's expanding authoritarianism, they have broken new ground with: - Mandatory state written malware for phones and computers, - "AI" for tracking people in public, at schools and businesses - Prevalent speed and crosswalk cameras to enforce traffic laws that their own police force fails to write tickets for.
- the_resistence 7y ago
  they already are, trust me
Despegar 7y ago
China is never going to mess with Apple in any significant way. Not only would it be cutting off their nose to spite their face in terms of unemployment, it would immediately lead to capital flight out of China which they absolutely can't afford. It'd basically undermine the entire economic model that has led to China's rise out of poverty over the past 30-40 years. And Apple is such a high profile company that it would likely cause an international incident.
- samsonradu 7y ago
  > And Apple is such a high profile company that it would likely cause an international incident. That's an overstatement in my opinion. Can you provide an example where a high profile (tech) company caused an international incident? Could be the case for companies with a national-security profile like energy or food industry, but the Chinese can live without iPhones and Apple, while feeling the bump, will move on.
  - Despegar 7y ago
    >If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now. If this extremely unlikely event happened the US government isn't going to ignore it.
GeekyBear 7y ago
Samsung certainly went from having a large market share in China to being an also ran that abandoned Chinese manufacturing after state led boycotts of their products as a response to South Korea allowing a ballistic missile defense system to be installed on their soil. As I recall, buying local brands instead was framed as patriotism.
- tanilama 7y ago
  That is again a myth. Before Thaad Samsung's share is already shrinking. The milestone being Note 7 explosion, they refused to offer the same refund package that they offered to the world outside China, and actually accusing some users microven the phone for fraud... And it blows up. No one wants to be treat as idiots.
rdtsc 7y ago
> If their economic ministry is doing its job then they will have detailed contingency plans to address the loss of any of their major foreign benefactors, and if required those jobs can be replaced with state handouT-shirt Why not already do it instead of taking the risk allowing Western companies undermining their state ideology? Does Apple transfer technology to them and they needed that? I don’t see them easily recovering, in the PR sense after kicking Apple out. They are already in the defensive posture with HK protests, which they saw get out of hand. Concentration camps for Muslim minorities is a terrible PR disaster. If anything Apple is in a good position to squeeze more concessions and handouts out of them at this point. Even, say make a publicity stunt about opening a factory in Vietnam or moving it back to US.
MR4D 7y ago
Unlikely. Messing with Apple means the potential (probable?) loss of what, 1/2 million jobs? The Chinese value stability, and that big of a dislocation would have a negative impact on their stability. I’m sure they can pressure them, but extreme measures would be reserved for cases where a company has crossed a line that cannot be in-crossed.

braythwayt 7y ago

This may be just like, your opinion, but it really ties the room's arguments together.

inferiorhuman 7y ago

If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now. Didn't Apple start ramping up iPhone production in India recently? I agree that China is likely to retaliate but I imagine whatever decision making process there was for approving this HK app involved plenty of lawyers and analysis of potential fallout.

cushychicken 7y ago
Many companies are ramping up electronics production outside of China as a hedge against tariffs.
scarface74 7y ago
Not at any particular scale -- just enough to avoid import tariffs and keep the local politicians happy. The same thing that you see in the US for military contracts. Apple is also paying lip service to "manufacturing in the US" by manufacturing the low volume, high margin Mac Pros. Not meant to be a value judgement, knowing how to placate politicians is necessary when you operate at scale.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  Not at any particular scale -- just enough to avoid import tariffs and keep the local politicians happy. My understanding is that the Indian built phones were destined for the EU market which isn't engaged in a trade war with India or China.

throw0101a 7y ago

> If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now. You're not wrong, but if people see that China is willing to shutdown someone as big as Apple, then they'll know that everyone else (who is probably smaller) stand no chance at all. People may start re-evaluating the (economic / supply-chain) risks they're will to take at that point.

Scramblejams 7y ago
I’d hope what's happening now is already enough for everyone to reevaluate those risks! In any case, threatening to shut Apple down wouldn’t be a message that you can’t do business in China, just that everybody, no matter how big, needs to toe the line. Do that, and you won’t have any problems.
- derf_ 7y ago
  > everybody, no matter how big, needs to toe the line. Do that, and you won’t have any problems. And maybe you're fine with that today. But once you've ceded that ground, what happens when they move the line? Because they always move the line.
  - StudentStuff 7y ago
    As technology and finances have enabled China's expanding authoritarianism, they have broken new ground with: - Mandatory state written malware for phones and computers, - "AI" for tracking people in public, at schools and businesses - Prevalent speed and crosswalk cameras to enforce traffic laws that their own police force fails to write tickets for.
the_resistence 7y ago
they already are, trust me

Despegar 7y ago

China is never going to mess with Apple in any significant way. Not only would it be cutting off their nose to spite their face in terms of unemployment, it would immediately lead to capital flight out of China which they absolutely can't afford. It'd basically undermine the entire economic model that has led to China's rise out of poverty over the past 30-40 years. And Apple is such a high profile company that it would likely cause an international incident.

samsonradu 7y ago
> And Apple is such a high profile company that it would likely cause an international incident. That's an overstatement in my opinion. Can you provide an example where a high profile (tech) company caused an international incident? Could be the case for companies with a national-security profile like energy or food industry, but the Chinese can live without iPhones and Apple, while feeling the bump, will move on.
- Despegar 7y ago
  >If I were Tim Cook I'd be real worried about being shut out of my own supply chain right about now. If this extremely unlikely event happened the US government isn't going to ignore it.

GeekyBear 7y ago

Samsung certainly went from having a large market share in China to being an also ran that abandoned Chinese manufacturing after state led boycotts of their products as a response to South Korea allowing a ballistic missile defense system to be installed on their soil. As I recall, buying local brands instead was framed as patriotism.

tanilama 7y ago
That is again a myth. Before Thaad Samsung's share is already shrinking. The milestone being Note 7 explosion, they refused to offer the same refund package that they offered to the world outside China, and actually accusing some users microven the phone for fraud... And it blows up. No one wants to be treat as idiots.

rdtsc 7y ago

> If their economic ministry is doing its job then they will have detailed contingency plans to address the loss of any of their major foreign benefactors, and if required those jobs can be replaced with state handouT-shirt Why not already do it instead of taking the risk allowing Western companies undermining their state ideology? Does Apple transfer technology to them and they needed that? I don’t see them easily recovering, in the PR sense after kicking Apple out. They are already in the defensive posture with HK protests, which they saw get out of hand. Concentration camps for Muslim minorities is a terrible PR disaster. If anything Apple is in a good position to squeeze more concessions and handouts out of them at this point. Even, say make a publicity stunt about opening a factory in Vietnam or moving it back to US.

MR4D 7y ago

Unlikely. Messing with Apple means the potential (probable?) loss of what, 1/2 million jobs? The Chinese value stability, and that big of a dislocation would have a negative impact on their stability. I’m sure they can pressure them, but extreme measures would be reserved for cases where a company has crossed a line that cannot be in-crossed.