3 ms·

> What will happen if they cut off the us entirely and force asian countries to cease trading with it What happens when we do it to them? China is powerful, s

by stale2002 7y ago

> What will happen if they cut off the us entirely and force asian countries to cease trading with it What happens when we do it to them? China is powerful, sure. But they aren't more powerful than the western world. We'll win that fight. (Well, by "win" I mean suffer less damages). Western companies are also already pretty cut off from the Chinese market. Cutting them off even more so is unlikely to have as huge if an impact as people are predicting.

rjzzleep 7y ago
I don't think the US can anymore. What Trump did was idiotic. There was a lot of power that world thought the US has, but doesn't seem to have. By issuing all these threats and not being able to follow through with them Trump essentially showed the world that the US isn't as omnipotent as everyone thought it would be. Subsequently Asias reaction to absolutely do not do any business with Huawei as the US ambassador asked for was answered with "we know China is risky, but you guys don't come without strings attached either"[1][2][3]. Only Europe and places like Taiwan(because of obvious reasons) are blindly followed US foreign policy decisions. Even UAE, Saudi Arabia and other places have now started to look for alternatives as they consider the US to less likely to follow through with their threats. If ever SCO(Shanghai Cooperation Organisation[4]) the Chinese answer to NATO becomes more involved in the middle east the US and it's allies will have to worry. And it's happening right now albeit slowly, because the sanctions and my way or the highway isn't really a reliable partner to a lot of people anymore. EDIT: economically there isn't much more than a complete trade embargo including central bank sanction that has been done with NK or Iran that can be done. Politically a coup isn't likely to happen. The PRC is hugely popular among its citizens whether we like it or not. And militarily Clinton humiliating China in 1996 prompted the current military buildup (See Taiwan straight crisis) [5] It's basically the emperors naked clothes now as the US Navy realizes that their big aircraft carriers are also a big liability in modern conflict as they're basically vulnerable to swarm attacks by cheap junk[6] [1] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/08/840ce682b432-focus-us-ban-on-huawei-being-largely-ignored-in-se-asia.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/08/840ce682b432-focu... [2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/19/business/u-s-ban-huawei-largely-ignored-southeast-asia/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/19/business/u-s-ba... [3] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3006961/my-way-or-huawei-how-us-ultimatum-over-chinas-5g-giant-fell https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3006961/m... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisat... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis [6] https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/08/06/with-mounting-questions-about-cost-and-survivability-a-shifting-political-landscape-for-us-aircraft-carriers/ https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/08/06/with-mounting-q...
- gaukes 7y ago
  Although it seems like a lot, the US reaction was maybe a 2/10 before trump and dialed up to a 4/10 after trump. There’s MUCH more the US can do if they really wanted to. Consider: 1. China is an export-driven economy. 2. The majority of trade flows through ocean trade routes. 3. The US navy patrols and controls the majority of water routes around the world. But, extreme escalation on either side could push this beyond an economic dispute and no party wants that.
  - AlexCoventry 7y ago
    > no party wants that. Trump would benefit enormously from a shooting war.
KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago
Nah this is not true, we actually sell more stuff to China than the other way around. They've just not yet really tried to retaliate. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/the-1-4-trillion-u-s-surplus-that-trump-s-not-talking-about https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/the-1-4-t... Tariffs hurt yourself first before anyone else. But if shit really hits the fan they no doubt will.
- stale2002 7y ago
  > They've just not yet really tried to retaliate. You seem to be pretty uninformed on the matter. It is common knowledge that it is extremely difficult for Western companies to operate in China. This "retaliation" has been going on for decades. China can't really make it much worse than what they have already been doing for decades.
  - DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
    You're constructing a narrative that puts history on its head. China has allowed foreign firms to come in and exploit cheap Chinese labor. Foreign companies have made enormous profits off of this. Not only do companies like Apple benefit hugely from Chinese labor, but they have also found a market of hundreds of millions of buyers of their product there. Foreign auto manufacturers dominate the Chinese domestic market - VW is the best-selling car brand in China, the world's largest auto market. You're saying that China has been retaliating by giving foreign companies access to cheap labor and hundreds of millions of customers. That's completely backwards.
trianglem 7y ago
I'm not so sure anymore. I think Asia may actually have a leg up on us again for the first time in centuries.

rjzzleep 7y ago

I don't think the US can anymore. What Trump did was idiotic. There was a lot of power that world thought the US has, but doesn't seem to have. By issuing all these threats and not being able to follow through with them Trump essentially showed the world that the US isn't as omnipotent as everyone thought it would be. Subsequently Asias reaction to absolutely do not do any business with Huawei as the US ambassador asked for was answered with "we know China is risky, but you guys don't come without strings attached either"[1][2][3]. Only Europe and places like Taiwan(because of obvious reasons) are blindly followed US foreign policy decisions. Even UAE, Saudi Arabia and other places have now started to look for alternatives as they consider the US to less likely to follow through with their threats. If ever SCO(Shanghai Cooperation Organisation[4]) the Chinese answer to NATO becomes more involved in the middle east the US and it's allies will have to worry. And it's happening right now albeit slowly, because the sanctions and my way or the highway isn't really a reliable partner to a lot of people anymore. EDIT: economically there isn't much more than a complete trade embargo including central bank sanction that has been done with NK or Iran that can be done. Politically a coup isn't likely to happen. The PRC is hugely popular among its citizens whether we like it or not. And militarily Clinton humiliating China in 1996 prompted the current military buildup (See Taiwan straight crisis) [5] It's basically the emperors naked clothes now as the US Navy realizes that their big aircraft carriers are also a big liability in modern conflict as they're basically vulnerable to swarm attacks by cheap junk[6] [1] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/08/840ce682b432-focus-us-ban-on-huawei-being-largely-ignored-in-se-asia.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/08/840ce682b432-focu... [2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/19/business/u-s-ban-huawei-largely-ignored-southeast-asia/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/19/business/u-s-ba... [3] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3006961/my-way-or-huawei-how-us-ultimatum-over-chinas-5g-giant-fell https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3006961/m... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisat... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis [6] https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/08/06/with-mounting-questions-about-cost-and-survivability-a-shifting-political-landscape-for-us-aircraft-carriers/ https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/08/06/with-mounting-q...

gaukes 7y ago
Although it seems like a lot, the US reaction was maybe a 2/10 before trump and dialed up to a 4/10 after trump. There’s MUCH more the US can do if they really wanted to. Consider: 1. China is an export-driven economy. 2. The majority of trade flows through ocean trade routes. 3. The US navy patrols and controls the majority of water routes around the world. But, extreme escalation on either side could push this beyond an economic dispute and no party wants that.
- AlexCoventry 7y ago
  > no party wants that. Trump would benefit enormously from a shooting war.

KaoruAoiShiho 7y ago

Nah this is not true, we actually sell more stuff to China than the other way around. They've just not yet really tried to retaliate. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/the-1-4-trillion-u-s-surplus-that-trump-s-not-talking-about https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/the-1-4-t... Tariffs hurt yourself first before anyone else. But if shit really hits the fan they no doubt will.

stale2002 7y ago
> They've just not yet really tried to retaliate. You seem to be pretty uninformed on the matter. It is common knowledge that it is extremely difficult for Western companies to operate in China. This "retaliation" has been going on for decades. China can't really make it much worse than what they have already been doing for decades.
- DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
  You're constructing a narrative that puts history on its head. China has allowed foreign firms to come in and exploit cheap Chinese labor. Foreign companies have made enormous profits off of this. Not only do companies like Apple benefit hugely from Chinese labor, but they have also found a market of hundreds of millions of buyers of their product there. Foreign auto manufacturers dominate the Chinese domestic market - VW is the best-selling car brand in China, the world's largest auto market. You're saying that China has been retaliating by giving foreign companies access to cheap labor and hundreds of millions of customers. That's completely backwards.

trianglem 7y ago

I'm not so sure anymore. I think Asia may actually have a leg up on us again for the first time in centuries.