3 ms·

What percentage of emissions is usage vs manufacture? I've looked, but I can't get a figure.

Robotbeat 7y ago
The main difference between EVs and standard cars is the battery. Estimates of battery emissions vary widely, but reviews show an average of about 110kg of CO2 per kWh of capacity: https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-life-cycle-GHG_ICCT-Briefing_09022018_vF.pdf https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-life... (Although this is improving with time and may be as low as 56kgCO2/kWhcapacity). So a 50kWh Model 3 has about 5.5mT of emissions from its battery. The rest of it may have lower emissions than a conventional car (since there's no engine, exhaust, fuel tank, etc), but pessimistically we can just assume that the difference in manufacturing emissions between EV and standard is just the battery. Over a 175,000 mile lifetime, a 35mpg gas car will emit 45.4 tonnes of CO2. And a Model 3 (4.1kWh/mile) will emit about 8.5 tonnes with Californian electricity or 17 tonnes with US average grid electricity. In either case, the vast majority of emissions is in the actual energy to fill up the vehicle, not the battery, and electric cars are FAR better (even with a >200 mile range battery which is considered very large in much of the literature) in this respect. A factor of 3.2 times better in California (including the battery) and still a respectable factor of 2 times better in the US with current electricity mix. But of course, if you buy the EV now and it lasts 10-15 years (including secondary and tertiary owners), the US and Californian electric grid will be much better as coal (and later natural gas) is phased out.
- crankylinuxuser 7y ago
  > But of course, if you buy the EV now and it lasts 10-15 years With companies like Tesla... they are the D-Link of vehicles. They absolutely don't want long term stable good cars. They want you at the 4-5 year mark to buy a new one. And given the company has harassed engineers poking at under the hood, they will highly likely damage your car via remote disables or other 'trickery'. I don't trust anything that Musk puts his hands on. There's a good reason for that.
  - scrumbledober 7y ago
    Any source on them not wanting long term stable good cars or is this just speculation, and if so what makes you speculate this? Other than body panel gap problems i'm unaware of any real build quality issues and apparently the motors are designed for a million miles before service.
  - Obi_Juan_Kenobi 7y ago
    All the older batteries are holding up very well, so the admittedly limited data we have directly contradicts that. I'd like to see a better right-to-repair stance taken by Tesla, but their products have thus-far proven durable. You can dislike Musk all you want, but it doesn't change reality.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    If anything it’s the other way. The software updates provide a huge boost to the existing fleet, features that you would normally have to trade-in and get a new car to enjoy. In some cases you can even upgrade the hardware (e.g. the AP and MCU) with the latest shipping parts to keep your model fresh. This is not universally true - there is some drama over a promised Model S MCU upgrade which a lot of people want only apparently only a handful of owners have gotten, but overall the approach is very refreshing.
mikepurvis 7y ago
In my opinion the carbon cost to manufacture is mostly relevant when you get into arguments about overall lifespan— like, can an EV get a battery change every 100k km and otherwise drive until the wheels fall off? If so, then it amortizes that initial cost to a much lower point than a gasoline car which is usually toast around the 200-300k mark. When comparing the per-distance numbers, though, the initial manufacture can be treated as a sunk cost; you would have paid it regardless of whether you bought an EV or conventional car.
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  For the most part, long range (>200 mile) EVs have batteries that will last at least ~200,000 miles before range is reduced significantly. Figure about 1000 cycles. It's possible to do even better if you're careful with charging style (and larger batteries in the same vehicle tend to do better as their discharge and charge rates are proportionally less).
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    I've been working off the belief that the limiting factor for a gasoline car is the engine which only lasts about 4-8000 hours before it's kaput. Electric motors and simple fix gear drivetrains should last much longer. EV's might well double the age of the average car on the road.
    - Robotbeat 7y ago
      I think they will, especially once the battery gets slightly larger and chemistry gets further refined. 1000 equivalent cycles times 300 miles of range per cycle is 300,000 miles. Takes about 20 years to get there, so for commuter vehicles, will almost certainly want to replace by then.
    - lotsofpulp 7y ago
      For places in the US that use salt on the roads (upper Midwest / northeast), vehicles suffer from corrosion before drivetrain issues in my experience. I would never buy a used car that has had lived through winters in places where roads are frequently salted.
Gibbon1 7y ago
The way I estimate this is just assume about 2 tons of CO2 per ton of steel[1]. Based on that it's hard to see a normal car requiring more than 5-6 tons of CO2 to produce. [1] Chemical reduction dominates everything. The energy required for forming and assembly would be much less.
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  Some metals can undergo a bunch of reheats in processing (3D printing of metals is particularly bad) which could approach chemical reduction energy, but you're right to zeroth order (which is good enough in these conversations, IMHO). Good rule of thumb.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    One other point is most automobiles are now recycled. Going what one reads on the internet about 25% of the steel in cars comes from recycled steel. And 95% of cars are fed into the recycling stream when they are scraped.

The main difference between EVs and standard cars is the battery. Estimates of battery emissions vary widely, but reviews show an average of about 110kg of CO2 per kWh of capacity: https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-life-cycle-GHG_ICCT-Briefing_09022018_vF.pdf https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-life... (Although this is improving with time and may be as low as 56kgCO2/kWhcapacity). So a 50kWh Model 3 has about 5.5mT of emissions from its battery. The rest of it may have lower emissions than a conventional car (since there's no engine, exhaust, fuel tank, etc), but pessimistically we can just assume that the difference in manufacturing emissions between EV and standard is just the battery. Over a 175,000 mile lifetime, a 35mpg gas car will emit 45.4 tonnes of CO2. And a Model 3 (4.1kWh/mile) will emit about 8.5 tonnes with Californian electricity or 17 tonnes with US average grid electricity. In either case, the vast majority of emissions is in the actual energy to fill up the vehicle, not the battery, and electric cars are FAR better (even with a >200 mile range battery which is considered very large in much of the literature) in this respect. A factor of 3.2 times better in California (including the battery) and still a respectable factor of 2 times better in the US with current electricity mix. But of course, if you buy the EV now and it lasts 10-15 years (including secondary and tertiary owners), the US and Californian electric grid will be much better as coal (and later natural gas) is phased out.

crankylinuxuser 7y ago
> But of course, if you buy the EV now and it lasts 10-15 years With companies like Tesla... they are the D-Link of vehicles. They absolutely don't want long term stable good cars. They want you at the 4-5 year mark to buy a new one. And given the company has harassed engineers poking at under the hood, they will highly likely damage your car via remote disables or other 'trickery'. I don't trust anything that Musk puts his hands on. There's a good reason for that.
- scrumbledober 7y ago
  Any source on them not wanting long term stable good cars or is this just speculation, and if so what makes you speculate this? Other than body panel gap problems i'm unaware of any real build quality issues and apparently the motors are designed for a million miles before service.
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 7y ago
  All the older batteries are holding up very well, so the admittedly limited data we have directly contradicts that. I'd like to see a better right-to-repair stance taken by Tesla, but their products have thus-far proven durable. You can dislike Musk all you want, but it doesn't change reality.
- zaroth 7y ago
  If anything it’s the other way. The software updates provide a huge boost to the existing fleet, features that you would normally have to trade-in and get a new car to enjoy. In some cases you can even upgrade the hardware (e.g. the AP and MCU) with the latest shipping parts to keep your model fresh. This is not universally true - there is some drama over a promised Model S MCU upgrade which a lot of people want only apparently only a handful of owners have gotten, but overall the approach is very refreshing.

mikepurvis 7y ago

In my opinion the carbon cost to manufacture is mostly relevant when you get into arguments about overall lifespan— like, can an EV get a battery change every 100k km and otherwise drive until the wheels fall off? If so, then it amortizes that initial cost to a much lower point than a gasoline car which is usually toast around the 200-300k mark. When comparing the per-distance numbers, though, the initial manufacture can be treated as a sunk cost; you would have paid it regardless of whether you bought an EV or conventional car.

Robotbeat 7y ago
For the most part, long range (>200 mile) EVs have batteries that will last at least ~200,000 miles before range is reduced significantly. Figure about 1000 cycles. It's possible to do even better if you're careful with charging style (and larger batteries in the same vehicle tend to do better as their discharge and charge rates are proportionally less).
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  I've been working off the belief that the limiting factor for a gasoline car is the engine which only lasts about 4-8000 hours before it's kaput. Electric motors and simple fix gear drivetrains should last much longer. EV's might well double the age of the average car on the road.
  - Robotbeat 7y ago
    I think they will, especially once the battery gets slightly larger and chemistry gets further refined. 1000 equivalent cycles times 300 miles of range per cycle is 300,000 miles. Takes about 20 years to get there, so for commuter vehicles, will almost certainly want to replace by then.
  - lotsofpulp 7y ago
    For places in the US that use salt on the roads (upper Midwest / northeast), vehicles suffer from corrosion before drivetrain issues in my experience. I would never buy a used car that has had lived through winters in places where roads are frequently salted.

Gibbon1 7y ago

The way I estimate this is just assume about 2 tons of CO2 per ton of steel[1]. Based on that it's hard to see a normal car requiring more than 5-6 tons of CO2 to produce. [1] Chemical reduction dominates everything. The energy required for forming and assembly would be much less.

Robotbeat 7y ago
Some metals can undergo a bunch of reheats in processing (3D printing of metals is particularly bad) which could approach chemical reduction energy, but you're right to zeroth order (which is good enough in these conversations, IMHO). Good rule of thumb.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  One other point is most automobiles are now recycled. Going what one reads on the internet about 25% of the steel in cars comes from recycled steel. And 95% of cars are fed into the recycling stream when they are scraped.