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This is something I've seen very few people actually remark on or take into consideration: the people who wouldn't have come to the election polls in the first
by bigwavedave 7y ago
This is something I've seen very few people actually remark on or take into consideration: the people who wouldn't have come to the election polls in the first race certainly won't be responding to the straw polls being conducted now and the models can't really reflect that. Or at least they don't currently seem to.
- akhilcacharya 7y agoThey have roughly accurately predicted other elections in the middle of which there have been literally hundreds.
- DuskStar 7y agoBut, as said upthread, they predicted downballot elections in 2016 pretty well too. So unless there's been an improvement in downballot predictions - not just good absolute performance - why should we expect any difference in 2020?