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I really wonder what the increased risk is of people using gas generators instead. I suppose from PG&E's perspective this isn't their liability but it still con

I really wonder what the increased risk is of people using gas generators instead. I suppose from PG&E's perspective this isn't their liability but it still concerns me.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
Expect to see a spike in Powerwall sales (battery storage in general really). You even get the 30% federal tax credit if included with your rooftop solar system. If you have enough roof, and if your consumption profile is appropriate, you can run without utility power indefinitely. Tesla already kicked off storm watch mode for folks with Powerwalls in the areas affected to precharge them to 100% prior to the scheduled outages.
- dickeytk 7y ago
  I mean—I live in the Oakland Hills myself. Nobody out here would be able to get solar. Our roofs/land is covered in trees. Also at 15k for a powerwall, it'd make more sense just to get a hotel for these blackouts.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    Depends on how long the blackouts are for and how frequent they are. The longer they go on, the more economic sense it makes. Also, a Powerwall is about $7k + install, not $15k. After the tax credit, that’s about $50/month over 10 years (more if you buy two Powerwalls instead of course). $600/year is almost what you’d approach spending a few nights a year in a hotel without any of the hassle.
    - dickeytk 7y ago
      Fair enough, the website defaults to 2 powerwalls for some reason. I wish I could get solar. My family and I will likely just be sitting around in the dark for a couple days.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- PeterStuer 7y ago
  Also expect a claw back by the energy sector, probably under the form of an extra tax on batteries the receipts of which will turn up in the private company coffers, to cover their 'losses'.
- PeterStuer 7y ago
  100% off-grid is economically not the most cost effective as you have to oversize capacity for peak too much. Current consensus is that 70% is the sweet-spot. Off grid will be taxed when the uptake becomes less niche. The benefits in terms of (partial) autonomy will remain. Since my previous comment where I said there will be clawbacks for lost revenue by the grid operators was downvoted, let me quote from relevant studies [1]: "It should be noted that, in a scenario in which {such systems} undergo a significant uptake, this mechanism is unsustainable since it generates revenue shortfalls for government, municipalities and system operators. These losses of revenues need to be somehow compensated, either by increasing the network tariffs or by changing the tariff structure, e.g. switching from a volume (i.e. per kWh) remuneration to a fixed or to a capacity remuneration for the grid connection. Interestingly, this modification of the tariff structure is already ongoing in various EU countries" [1] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333420646_Techno-economic_Analysis_of_Residential_PV-battery_Self-consumption https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333420646_Techno-ec...
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    As utility rates increase to offset grid defections as storage costs come down, a death spiral occurs (already occurring in Germany as you mention) [1]. I think it'll be politically untenable to attempt to rake people over the coals financially, but TBD at this time. It's not necessary to oversize your system for peak load either; you can opt to instead shed large loads (AC), thereby reducing your capital costs for average system loads (lighting, refrigerator, etc). [1] https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-the-utility-death-spiral-looks-like https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-th...
    - PeterStuer 7y ago
      AC is pretty rare in Europe
      - toomuchtodo 7y ago
        I agree, but I included it for the sake of argument. Any self supporting power system without AC is much easier to accomplish.

I really wonder what the increased risk is of people using gas generators instead. I suppose from PG&E's perspective this isn't their liability but it still concerns me.

toomuchtodo 7y ago

Expect to see a spike in Powerwall sales (battery storage in general really). You even get the 30% federal tax credit if included with your rooftop solar system. If you have enough roof, and if your consumption profile is appropriate, you can run without utility power indefinitely. Tesla already kicked off storm watch mode for folks with Powerwalls in the areas affected to precharge them to 100% prior to the scheduled outages.

dickeytk 7y ago
I mean—I live in the Oakland Hills myself. Nobody out here would be able to get solar. Our roofs/land is covered in trees. Also at 15k for a powerwall, it'd make more sense just to get a hotel for these blackouts.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Depends on how long the blackouts are for and how frequent they are. The longer they go on, the more economic sense it makes. Also, a Powerwall is about $7k + install, not $15k. After the tax credit, that’s about $50/month over 10 years (more if you buy two Powerwalls instead of course). $600/year is almost what you’d approach spending a few nights a year in a hotel without any of the hassle.
  - dickeytk 7y ago
    Fair enough, the website defaults to 2 powerwalls for some reason. I wish I could get solar. My family and I will likely just be sitting around in the dark for a couple days.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
PeterStuer 7y ago
Also expect a claw back by the energy sector, probably under the form of an extra tax on batteries the receipts of which will turn up in the private company coffers, to cover their 'losses'.
PeterStuer 7y ago
100% off-grid is economically not the most cost effective as you have to oversize capacity for peak too much. Current consensus is that 70% is the sweet-spot. Off grid will be taxed when the uptake becomes less niche. The benefits in terms of (partial) autonomy will remain. Since my previous comment where I said there will be clawbacks for lost revenue by the grid operators was downvoted, let me quote from relevant studies [1]: "It should be noted that, in a scenario in which {such systems} undergo a significant uptake, this mechanism is unsustainable since it generates revenue shortfalls for government, municipalities and system operators. These losses of revenues need to be somehow compensated, either by increasing the network tariffs or by changing the tariff structure, e.g. switching from a volume (i.e. per kWh) remuneration to a fixed or to a capacity remuneration for the grid connection. Interestingly, this modification of the tariff structure is already ongoing in various EU countries" [1] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333420646_Techno-economic_Analysis_of_Residential_PV-battery_Self-consumption https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333420646_Techno-ec...
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  As utility rates increase to offset grid defections as storage costs come down, a death spiral occurs (already occurring in Germany as you mention) [1]. I think it'll be politically untenable to attempt to rake people over the coals financially, but TBD at this time. It's not necessary to oversize your system for peak load either; you can opt to instead shed large loads (AC), thereby reducing your capital costs for average system loads (lighting, refrigerator, etc). [1] https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-the-utility-death-spiral-looks-like https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-th...
  - PeterStuer 7y ago
    AC is pretty rare in Europe
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      I agree, but I included it for the sake of argument. Any self supporting power system without AC is much easier to accomplish.