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The interesting and missing thing from a lot of discussions is what the investment bet is (beyond flipping before the musical chairs ends.) AFAICT, assuming th
by lmeyerov 7y ago
The interesting and missing thing from a lot of discussions is what the investment bet is (beyond flipping before the musical chairs ends.)
AFAICT, assuming things keep progressing:
-- General purpose quantum computing is easily 8-10 years out: https://twitter.com/lmeyerov/status/1177632571636584448 https://twitter.com/lmeyerov/status/1177632571636584448 . HW vendors might become lucrative around then, and soon after, SW. As a language & framework tool designer, I'll probably poke my head out again in a few years again.
-- Niche stuff, especially military, can be done over the next few years, with subsequent ROI in the 5-10 year range. Need funny secure radar tech with lossy analog circuits? Go for it!
-- Medium term: There may be some wins around say HFT doing probabilistic optimization algorithms on super lossy/unreliable quantum circuits, and maybe national label + pharma stuff for the same. This might be interesting for a larger-than-expected audience (breakthrough events for synthetic bio, genomics?), and as a tool designer, blaze the path to general SW, which is also interesting..
- TrueTom 7y agoAt this point in time there is no indication that quantum computers will ever solve a useful problem. Even if there is one it's not likely to be profitable.