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I love how economists make all sorts or ridiculous claims by looking at the historical stock market. Two or three data points is not a trend, if you have 3 user
by charlesju 16y ago
I love how economists make all sorts or ridiculous claims by looking at the historical stock market. Two or three data points is not a trend, if you have 3 users and they all register, that doesn't mean your conversion rate is 100%.
Sometimes we forget that 100 years of data is nothing compared to human history and does not signify anything about the future.
- edge17 16y agoremember Moore's law? that was based on two or three data points :)
- knowledgesale 16y agoa reference to back up this particular claim maybe?
- crasshopper 16y agoKnowledgesale, I couldn't comment on your question about why there is no "kickstarter for investing" or find your twitter to say this ... It was called Prosper.com. Actually there were many attempts at exactly what you're talking about. So far they've all failed.
- knowledgesale 16y agooh, very interesting, thank you
- Hoff 16y agohttp://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/dick.rumelt/Docs/Cases/MooresLaw.pdf http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/dick.rumelt/Docs/Cases/...
- Symmetry 16y agoMoore's diagram's in his origonal paper, presumably. However, while he only plotted a few data points he presumably used his experience with the semi-conductor industry in general and so actually had more. ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf
- edge17 16y agomost industry insiders will tell you that Moore's law is a marketing law that drives timelines more than anything else. sure he used his experience, but CEO's have also been known to make wild and extravagant statements :)
- Keyframe 16y agobut was it a self-fulfilling prophecy?
- edge17 16y agosure, most marketing laws that succeed tend to be self-fulfilling
- deleted 16y ago[deleted]
- ramchip 16y agoThe author is not an economist. Just like people writing about science in the newspapers are rarely actual scientists, people writing about economy in the news are rarely economists.