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Won't happen (yet), because it goes against everything Musk. At the risk of downvotes... Here's my work-in-progress theory (v0.1): Musk isn't a tech genius, (
by beerandt 7y ago
Won't happen (yet), because it goes against everything Musk.
At the risk of downvotes... Here's my work-in-progress theory (v0.1):
Musk isn't a tech genius, (or maybe he is, but irrelevant) he's a regulation genius. (Which allows him to also be an effective fundraiser, but again, irrelevant.)
Musk's MO is to enter a niche, mostly uncontested and unregulated area of an otherwise over-regulated market. Then make a whole lot of noise about why this niche is so different and special and going to be so groundbreaking, which is really just cover for "why existing regulations shouldn't apply to me." Then as regulations (and subsidies) for that niche market are created, make sure that they favor his company (which already has a beachhead), while still being a barrier to market for any new-comers hoping to ride his coat-tails. Continue until level of regulation roughly matches the rest of the (non-niche) industry, ensuring niche status while becoming a competitor in the overall (non-niche) market. This happens as everyone realizes the final product, as finished, probably wasn't special enough to be excluded from the (non-niche) market regulations.
See: (in decreasing rank of success)
PayPal-> Banking
SpaceX-> Rockets/Aerospace
Tesla-> Cars
Giga-factory/ Tesla assembly automation -> manufacturing
Boring Company-> Subsurface Construction
Solar City-> Power Utility
Not-a-flamethrower -> flame thrower market???
Scuba rescue tank-> pedo scuba rescue market???
There are obviously some places this fits and others it doesn't. There's also some level of genius in how batteries/electric cars/solar/power-grid play off of one another, but nothing non-obvious. I suspect he wanted to make an earlier play in ride-sharing, but Uber beat him to it, with a similar strategy. This is now delayed until self-driving (re)allows for the regulatory advantage.
But the intended overall playbook starts to become obvious.
Back to Boring Company: I suspect skirting the existing regulations isn't going quite as well as desired because:
1- people realize his technology isn't all that special, even if it is (self-imposed) niche. (This is a failure in how
hyperloop played out.)
2a- Subsurface engineering regulations aren't all that interesting, at least as far as looking for creative ways around them
2b- the regulations that are there have a pretty good (non-arbitrary and simple) engineering purpose. (Which is another way of saying the existing market is not actually over regulated)
3a- nimby politics plays a major role
3b- local governments (clients) don't have the power and/or money to override regulation politics
To answer: the Boring Company can't go and bid on bigger projects (yet) because then they would completely burn their niche status, which would admit to the world it's just another subsurface drilling company, and should be treated as such. They have to delay until their personalized regulatory system has been built, acknowledged, and subsidized. Then you can go after the regular projects that don't justify a special regulatory framework.