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>It seems fairly obvious that any new automated technology removes more jobs than it creates. This argument seems to suggest that if, hypothetically speaking,

>It seems fairly obvious that any new automated technology removes more jobs than it creates. This argument seems to suggest that if, hypothetically speaking, 65% of the population had jobs that were automated away such that only 1% of the population were needed to do that work, that 64% of the population subsequently would become unemployed. Given that that example is actually not hypothetical and is very, very real (agriculture), why do you think we never struggled with 64% unemployment?

chillacy 7y ago
Well by some measures we did struggle a lot during these shifts. The last industrial revolution was a period of social unrest, featuring mass riots which killed people. As a response the government instituted universal high school and labor union friendly laws (and labor day became a holiday). As for what people ended up doing, new industries opened up, but I wouldn't say they were created by the specific new technology per se... maybe this is just semantics but if automatic tractors frees people up to be hired for instagram video production, can one say that automatic tractors "created" the instagram video market?
- pytester 7y ago
  >Well by some measures we did struggle a lot during these shifts. The last industrial revolution was a period of social unrest, featuring mass riots Are you saying that automation doesn't necessarily cause joblessness but that it did cause riots? The industrial revolution was a pretty nasty struggle for sure, but I'd argue that was more down to the enclosure movement - people being kicked off their land - than machines. >As for what people ended up doing, new industries opened up And your argument hinged upon the notion that this process has now somehow... stopped... why so? >maybe this is just semantics but if automatic tractors frees people up to be hired for instagram video production, can one say that automatic tractors "created" the instagram video market? A lot more than just instagram video market was created after the automation of farming. Frankly, I see the process of market creation being threatened more by wealth inequality than by automation.
  - chillacy 7y ago
    > And your argument hinged upon the notion that this process has now somehow... stopped... why so? Apologies if I was unclear, I did not mean to imply that opportunities would stop coming up, I only meant to draw attention to the fact that within the industry there would be fewer jobs. (Ultimately this is a very good thing, we can't get much done if 9/10 people are dedicated to farming. In 30 years I'm sure we'll look back and say the same about manufacturing.) But this is why it's important: Economic theory says that workers are all fungible and will re-skill into these new jobs, while data show that the new jobs are taken by other people in other places: the old workers seem to drop out of the workforce [1], get on disability [2], and/or die from opiate overdoses [3]. [1] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/ccf_20170517_declining_labor_force_participation_sawhill1.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/ccf_201... [2] https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/ https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/ [3] https://www.prb.org/people-and-places-hardest-hit-by-the-drug-overdose-epidemic/ https://www.prb.org/people-and-places-hardest-hit-by-the-dru... I do agree that the inequality is a big issue and it's doubly edged: less consumer spending power means the market doesn't bother serving those without wealth, and automation itself tends to concentrate wealth into few large players.

chillacy 7y ago

Well by some measures we did struggle a lot during these shifts. The last industrial revolution was a period of social unrest, featuring mass riots which killed people. As a response the government instituted universal high school and labor union friendly laws (and labor day became a holiday). As for what people ended up doing, new industries opened up, but I wouldn't say they were created by the specific new technology per se... maybe this is just semantics but if automatic tractors frees people up to be hired for instagram video production, can one say that automatic tractors "created" the instagram video market?

pytester 7y ago
>Well by some measures we did struggle a lot during these shifts. The last industrial revolution was a period of social unrest, featuring mass riots Are you saying that automation doesn't necessarily cause joblessness but that it did cause riots? The industrial revolution was a pretty nasty struggle for sure, but I'd argue that was more down to the enclosure movement - people being kicked off their land - than machines. >As for what people ended up doing, new industries opened up And your argument hinged upon the notion that this process has now somehow... stopped... why so? >maybe this is just semantics but if automatic tractors frees people up to be hired for instagram video production, can one say that automatic tractors "created" the instagram video market? A lot more than just instagram video market was created after the automation of farming. Frankly, I see the process of market creation being threatened more by wealth inequality than by automation.
- chillacy 7y ago
  > And your argument hinged upon the notion that this process has now somehow... stopped... why so? Apologies if I was unclear, I did not mean to imply that opportunities would stop coming up, I only meant to draw attention to the fact that within the industry there would be fewer jobs. (Ultimately this is a very good thing, we can't get much done if 9/10 people are dedicated to farming. In 30 years I'm sure we'll look back and say the same about manufacturing.) But this is why it's important: Economic theory says that workers are all fungible and will re-skill into these new jobs, while data show that the new jobs are taken by other people in other places: the old workers seem to drop out of the workforce [1], get on disability [2], and/or die from opiate overdoses [3]. [1] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/ccf_20170517_declining_labor_force_participation_sawhill1.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/ccf_201... [2] https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/ https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/ [3] https://www.prb.org/people-and-places-hardest-hit-by-the-drug-overdose-epidemic/ https://www.prb.org/people-and-places-hardest-hit-by-the-dru... I do agree that the inequality is a big issue and it's doubly edged: less consumer spending power means the market doesn't bother serving those without wealth, and automation itself tends to concentrate wealth into few large players.