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The question is can people change their taste in manufactured goods quicker than a robot can adapt? A robot that builds shoddy shoes that people don't particul

The question is can people change their taste in manufactured goods quicker than a robot can adapt? A robot that builds shoddy shoes that people don't particularly want any more getting cheaper isn't compelling. A robot that makes Budweiser 5% more efficiently isn't compelling if what people really want is craft beer.

chiefalchemist 7y ago
Yes. However. Changing tastes isn't very important if you have no money...because the robot has your job. The best example is autonomous long haul trucking. No drivers means no need to truck stop food. No need for food means no dinner staff. Etc. Replace a single job and multiple downstream jobs will be affected. That's true everywhere. It's coming. Can we adjust and readjust quick enough? At what point does unemployment become permanent state? Then what?
- crdoconnor 7y ago
  In the 1930s the answer was to create a job guarantee in the form of a massive public works program. That's how stuff like the Brooklyn Bridge and the LA Griffith Observatory got built. The other option is to keep the retirement age down. I'd like to know why so many people who believe in this automation revolution are instead advocating for the exact opposite on the grounds that we actually really have the opposite problem... You can't take both sides of this fence. Either the automation revolution is real and retirement ages can be lowered or it isn't and articles like this are spouting horseshit.
  - noonespecial 7y ago
    Exactly. When people sputter breathlessly that basic minimum income is unsustainable because the people who receive it will just sit at home watching TV and taking drugs I just laugh and tell them we already do that. We just call it social security. We don't need a new system. We just need to slowly expand the one we have a little further each year. Lowering the retirement age is a great place to start.
  - chiefalchemist 7y ago
    Yes. Now when are we going to have this discussion? It should have been a 2016 issue. 2016 had no issues. Does anyone reasonable expect 2020 to be different?
    - icebraining 7y ago
      It should have been a 2018 issue as well. Arguably these are legislative matters, not executive.
      - chiefalchemist 7y ago
        Yes and no. The Executive branch can set vision and tone. JFK's "we're going to the moon" always come to mind.
paulsutter 7y ago
There is nothing whatsoever preventing automation of craft beer, in fact that’s rather a good idea. Unlimited personalization by each “brewer”, small batch sizes, total consistency. CloudBrewing (like Travis Kalanick’s CloudKitchens but for beer)
- crdoconnor 7y ago
  >There is nothing whatsoever preventing automation of craft beer In theory there's nothing to prevent the automation of any process. The question is cost. For craft beer there's 10,000 different kinds for every 10 million liters drunk, all with a completely different brewing process and consumer tastes keep changing in this market because consumers seek novelty. Whereas for Budweiser there's just one, unchanging process. So yes, it is much harder to automate than Budweiser brewing and is much more labor intensive. It's far from the only market where this happens, too.
  - dkersten 7y ago
    Surely it would be even cheaper to have an automated process make these 10,000 different kinds than you could do manually. Its not much harder to automate, you're just not doing huge volume runs before switching up the ingredients. Hell, you could probably try more radical variations by having it automated -- A/B testing of ingredient/process selection of sorts. > consumer tastes keep changing in this market because consumers seek novelty. Seems like an automated process that can quickly churn out something new would be super profitable then. The question is how varied are these brewing processes and can a machine handle them. I don't know enough about whackjob craft beer brewing processes to answer that, but the main aspects, I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to automate those. Maybe it wouldn't be 100% automated, but any automation will 1) reduce jobs and 2) help churn out crazy craft beers faster than the non-automated competitor.

chiefalchemist 7y ago

Yes. However. Changing tastes isn't very important if you have no money...because the robot has your job. The best example is autonomous long haul trucking. No drivers means no need to truck stop food. No need for food means no dinner staff. Etc. Replace a single job and multiple downstream jobs will be affected. That's true everywhere. It's coming. Can we adjust and readjust quick enough? At what point does unemployment become permanent state? Then what?

crdoconnor 7y ago
In the 1930s the answer was to create a job guarantee in the form of a massive public works program. That's how stuff like the Brooklyn Bridge and the LA Griffith Observatory got built. The other option is to keep the retirement age down. I'd like to know why so many people who believe in this automation revolution are instead advocating for the exact opposite on the grounds that we actually really have the opposite problem... You can't take both sides of this fence. Either the automation revolution is real and retirement ages can be lowered or it isn't and articles like this are spouting horseshit.
- noonespecial 7y ago
  Exactly. When people sputter breathlessly that basic minimum income is unsustainable because the people who receive it will just sit at home watching TV and taking drugs I just laugh and tell them we already do that. We just call it social security. We don't need a new system. We just need to slowly expand the one we have a little further each year. Lowering the retirement age is a great place to start.
- chiefalchemist 7y ago
  Yes. Now when are we going to have this discussion? It should have been a 2016 issue. 2016 had no issues. Does anyone reasonable expect 2020 to be different?
  - icebraining 7y ago
    It should have been a 2018 issue as well. Arguably these are legislative matters, not executive.
    - chiefalchemist 7y ago
      Yes and no. The Executive branch can set vision and tone. JFK's "we're going to the moon" always come to mind.

paulsutter 7y ago

There is nothing whatsoever preventing automation of craft beer, in fact that’s rather a good idea. Unlimited personalization by each “brewer”, small batch sizes, total consistency. CloudBrewing (like Travis Kalanick’s CloudKitchens but for beer)

crdoconnor 7y ago
>There is nothing whatsoever preventing automation of craft beer In theory there's nothing to prevent the automation of any process. The question is cost. For craft beer there's 10,000 different kinds for every 10 million liters drunk, all with a completely different brewing process and consumer tastes keep changing in this market because consumers seek novelty. Whereas for Budweiser there's just one, unchanging process. So yes, it is much harder to automate than Budweiser brewing and is much more labor intensive. It's far from the only market where this happens, too.
- dkersten 7y ago
  Surely it would be even cheaper to have an automated process make these 10,000 different kinds than you could do manually. Its not much harder to automate, you're just not doing huge volume runs before switching up the ingredients. Hell, you could probably try more radical variations by having it automated -- A/B testing of ingredient/process selection of sorts. > consumer tastes keep changing in this market because consumers seek novelty. Seems like an automated process that can quickly churn out something new would be super profitable then. The question is how varied are these brewing processes and can a machine handle them. I don't know enough about whackjob craft beer brewing processes to answer that, but the main aspects, I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to automate those. Maybe it wouldn't be 100% automated, but any automation will 1) reduce jobs and 2) help churn out crazy craft beers faster than the non-automated competitor.