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The End of the Chinese Miracle Is in Sight. What’s Next?
- rossdavidh 7y agoIt doesn't even bring up the biggest issues that distinguish China's future from its past: 1) the last 20th century was distinguishable from the early and mid 20th century, for China, by NOT having a lot of civil war or invasion. Simply not having a war going on is a great way to do better. But eventually, after a generation or so of peace, while peace is still a good idea it's not new and so doesn't provide easy opportunities for growth. 2) For quite a while, China could emulate technological innovation that it witnessed in other countries (Japan, North America, western Europe). It is now approaching the technological forefront, and it's not as obvious which path to take. Is AI a great idea or will it prove to be a bust that overpromises and underdelivers? Can solar, wind, and hydro power replace fossil fuels sooner, or later? Should internal combustion cars with human drivers be replaced with electric self-driving cars? The answers are not as obvious, because all of the other countries are trying to figure that out also. This makes the advantages of centralized decision-making less clear, and the disadvantages more of a problem. Not to say that China can't overcome these issues, but this article doesn't even raise them.