4 ms·

Misery of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be global

3 points by nnx 7y ago

nabla9 7y ago
The main uncertainty and weak point in these studies are the incorrect assumptions about combustible fuel loads in cities. Nuclear winter (or cooling) requires strong firestorm that lifts soot and black carbon (BC) high in the stratosphere. Authors make the same increasingly erroneous assumption as previous studies. This starting assumption is the weakest point of the study. >1. We first assume that the area subject to fire ignition for a 15-kt nuclear explosion is the same as that observed in Hiroshima (13 km2). For different yields, we take the area subject to fire as proportional to the yield (15). Hirosima had fire storm because it was densely build old Japanese city made of mostly wood and paper buildings. It was was full of breakfast burners that where thrown around in the blast (time was 08:15). There had been no rain for almost 30 days. Nagasaki was similarly build city but the fires were five times less intense. I don't understand why nuclear winter studies keep using Hiroshima as their city model. They don't take into account changes in urban construction or overall decrease in fuel load. The increased use of electricity, different building materials and underground fuel tanks reduce the combustible fuel load several orders of magnitude.
Someone 7y ago
Anybody have a link to the publication? I can’t find it on https://experts.colorado.edu/display/fisid_110521 https://experts.colorado.edu/display/fisid_110521 (it mentions “Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E”, but that isn’t about India and Pakistan) I’m asking because the phrase: ”leading to Indian forces entering Pakistan. Pakistan responds with the use of a handful of tactical nuclear weapons targeting those tanks and troops” seems to indicate that Pakistan would respond by nuking its own territory. That may be the best choice tactically, but seems a tough choice for a government to make. Is the border area that empty that that it won’t hit Pakistani harder than Indians?

3 points by nnx 7y ago

The main uncertainty and weak point in these studies are the incorrect assumptions about combustible fuel loads in cities. Nuclear winter (or cooling) requires strong firestorm that lifts soot and black carbon (BC) high in the stratosphere. Authors make the same increasingly erroneous assumption as previous studies. This starting assumption is the weakest point of the study. >1. We first assume that the area subject to fire ignition for a 15-kt nuclear explosion is the same as that observed in Hiroshima (13 km2). For different yields, we take the area subject to fire as proportional to the yield (15). Hirosima had fire storm because it was densely build old Japanese city made of mostly wood and paper buildings. It was was full of breakfast burners that where thrown around in the blast (time was 08:15). There had been no rain for almost 30 days. Nagasaki was similarly build city but the fires were five times less intense. I don't understand why nuclear winter studies keep using Hiroshima as their city model. They don't take into account changes in urban construction or overall decrease in fuel load. The increased use of electricity, different building materials and underground fuel tanks reduce the combustible fuel load several orders of magnitude.

Someone 7y ago

Anybody have a link to the publication? I can’t find it on https://experts.colorado.edu/display/fisid_110521 https://experts.colorado.edu/display/fisid_110521 (it mentions “Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E”, but that isn’t about India and Pakistan) I’m asking because the phrase: ”leading to Indian forces entering Pakistan. Pakistan responds with the use of a handful of tactical nuclear weapons targeting those tanks and troops” seems to indicate that Pakistan would respond by nuking its own territory. That may be the best choice tactically, but seems a tough choice for a government to make. Is the border area that empty that that it won’t hit Pakistani harder than Indians?