5 ms·

why do you think gas plants will be turned off, especially given the low gas prices?

jillesvangurp 7y ago
Because despite the low gas prices, solar and wind prices are trending down as efficiencies increase and as economies of scale improve the economics. Prices are already dipping below those prices for new bids. So, if you are planning a gas plant that needs to be operational for decades, the economic outlook is pretty grim. That's why lots of plans for new gas plans are getting shelved. Existing plants run quite economically. But when cheaper clean energy becomes available at scale, it becomes more expensive to operate them. Selling expensive energy during low demand is not going to be an option because cheaper energy will be preferred. Spinning plants up during peak demand takes time and battery + solar is already cheaper and faster for that as well. A gas plant that isn't running part of the time is going to be more expensive. That's why a lot of them will be taken out long before their planned end of life. Currently people are shutting down the most expensive plants first (nuclear & coal) but once that is gone, gas will be next.
- antepodius 7y ago
  None of this adresses the storage problem. Unless/until storage gets a lot cheapet, there are going to be baseline/peaker fossil/nuclear plants. (No peaker nuclear, ofc.)
  - jillesvangurp 7y ago
    Storage is typically included in those low bids I mentioned. We already crossed the cheap enough mark in some areas for solar + battery.
  - xbmcuser 7y ago
    Lithium Battery prices are also dropping by about 10%-20% a year. Something that cost $1000~ in 2008 costs $200~ today.
- kortilla 7y ago
  Solar/wind doesn’t compete with gas because it cannot provide dependable base load. Solar/wind + massive energy storage is what competes with gas. And in that category it’s not even close to competitive because batteries are still way too expensive.
  - jillesvangurp 7y ago
    I keep hearing this. How many twh do you think you need and why? And how much are you willing to pay for it? The sun comes out every day. On a bad day there are clouds and your panels are less effective but still produce power (except in the arctic regions). Wind blows every day somewhere but not necessarily everywhere. Well known facts. However, continent wide black clouds without any wind whatsoever is pretty rare and unlikely to last very long if it happens at all. So instead of storing energy locally, you can absorb a lot of this by moving energy around via wires. So, you need batteries locally for fluctuations and you can cross connect sites with wires so you can import excess energy from elsewhere. Conveniently when it is cloudy, it's usually also pretty windy. Global warming is oddly helping here by creating even more wind. So, a combination of a some over capacity, some wires for moving energy around, and some battery for short term fluctuations would be all you need. If it's not enough on the worst days, just add more windmills/solar/batteries. At the rate prices are dropping installing 2-3x the needed capacity would still be cheaper than keeping gas plants around. Those prices are projected to continue to drop of course making the whole thing only even more affordable.

Because despite the low gas prices, solar and wind prices are trending down as efficiencies increase and as economies of scale improve the economics. Prices are already dipping below those prices for new bids. So, if you are planning a gas plant that needs to be operational for decades, the economic outlook is pretty grim. That's why lots of plans for new gas plans are getting shelved. Existing plants run quite economically. But when cheaper clean energy becomes available at scale, it becomes more expensive to operate them. Selling expensive energy during low demand is not going to be an option because cheaper energy will be preferred. Spinning plants up during peak demand takes time and battery + solar is already cheaper and faster for that as well. A gas plant that isn't running part of the time is going to be more expensive. That's why a lot of them will be taken out long before their planned end of life. Currently people are shutting down the most expensive plants first (nuclear & coal) but once that is gone, gas will be next.

antepodius 7y ago
None of this adresses the storage problem. Unless/until storage gets a lot cheapet, there are going to be baseline/peaker fossil/nuclear plants. (No peaker nuclear, ofc.)
- jillesvangurp 7y ago
  Storage is typically included in those low bids I mentioned. We already crossed the cheap enough mark in some areas for solar + battery.
- xbmcuser 7y ago
  Lithium Battery prices are also dropping by about 10%-20% a year. Something that cost $1000~ in 2008 costs $200~ today.
kortilla 7y ago
Solar/wind doesn’t compete with gas because it cannot provide dependable base load. Solar/wind + massive energy storage is what competes with gas. And in that category it’s not even close to competitive because batteries are still way too expensive.
- jillesvangurp 7y ago
  I keep hearing this. How many twh do you think you need and why? And how much are you willing to pay for it? The sun comes out every day. On a bad day there are clouds and your panels are less effective but still produce power (except in the arctic regions). Wind blows every day somewhere but not necessarily everywhere. Well known facts. However, continent wide black clouds without any wind whatsoever is pretty rare and unlikely to last very long if it happens at all. So instead of storing energy locally, you can absorb a lot of this by moving energy around via wires. So, you need batteries locally for fluctuations and you can cross connect sites with wires so you can import excess energy from elsewhere. Conveniently when it is cloudy, it's usually also pretty windy. Global warming is oddly helping here by creating even more wind. So, a combination of a some over capacity, some wires for moving energy around, and some battery for short term fluctuations would be all you need. If it's not enough on the worst days, just add more windmills/solar/batteries. At the rate prices are dropping installing 2-3x the needed capacity would still be cheaper than keeping gas plants around. Those prices are projected to continue to drop of course making the whole thing only even more affordable.