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> but it certainly was not the same as winning the lottery I am happy that things worked out so well for you, but you're not sharing any data to back up this c
by Judgmentality 7y ago
> but it certainly was not the same as winning the lottery
I am happy that things worked out so well for you, but you're not sharing any data to back up this claim. I mean someone could literally win the lottery and say how great things worked out - it's anecdotal evidence.
https://xkcd.com/1827/ https://xkcd.com/1827/
For many people, and I strongly suspect most, startup options are a losing bet. The worst part is you have to wait years before you know whether or not they're worth anything.
- undefined3840 7y agoThe odds of winning the CA lottery is 1 in 42 million. There are fewer than a million residents in SF. I don’t know the exact number of startup winners (both founders and employees who made more than $1m) living in SF at this moment but I would conservatively estimate something in the 5k range.
- Judgmentality 7y agoThe odds of winning the minimum $38 MM payout in California are 1 in 42 million. The odds of a smaller payout are orders of magnitude higher. And you can play twice a week, instead of having to wait a minimum of 1 year between potential payouts. You're also allowed to buy other lottery tickets in that period of time. To put things in perspective, of the dozens of people I know who joined startups, almost all of them felt the stock wasn't worth it.