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I didn’t stay for 6 years. I don’t work there anymore. And like I said, the company will likely raise soon, potentially at a much higher valuation. There is a c

I didn’t stay for 6 years. I don’t work there anymore. And like I said, the company will likely raise soon, potentially at a much higher valuation. There is a comparable company that is already public that is trading at a much higher valuation. I also didn’t say my experience is/was common, but it certainly was not the same as winning the lottery. That is my point.

lostdog 7y ago
Got it. Sounds like you did pretty well then! Congrats! It is still rare to be given such good terms on equity, and also rare to be knowledgeable enough to take advantage of the opportunity.
Judgmentality 7y ago
> but it certainly was not the same as winning the lottery I am happy that things worked out so well for you, but you're not sharing any data to back up this claim. I mean someone could literally win the lottery and say how great things worked out - it's anecdotal evidence. https://xkcd.com/1827/ https://xkcd.com/1827/ For many people, and I strongly suspect most, startup options are a losing bet. The worst part is you have to wait years before you know whether or not they're worth anything.
- undefined3840 7y ago
  The odds of winning the CA lottery is 1 in 42 million. There are fewer than a million residents in SF. I don’t know the exact number of startup winners (both founders and employees who made more than $1m) living in SF at this moment but I would conservatively estimate something in the 5k range.
  - Judgmentality 7y ago
    The odds of winning the minimum $38 MM payout in California are 1 in 42 million. The odds of a smaller payout are orders of magnitude higher. And you can play twice a week, instead of having to wait a minimum of 1 year between potential payouts. You're also allowed to buy other lottery tickets in that period of time. To put things in perspective, of the dozens of people I know who joined startups, almost all of them felt the stock wasn't worth it.

lostdog 7y ago

Got it. Sounds like you did pretty well then! Congrats! It is still rare to be given such good terms on equity, and also rare to be knowledgeable enough to take advantage of the opportunity.

Judgmentality 7y ago

> but it certainly was not the same as winning the lottery I am happy that things worked out so well for you, but you're not sharing any data to back up this claim. I mean someone could literally win the lottery and say how great things worked out - it's anecdotal evidence. https://xkcd.com/1827/ https://xkcd.com/1827/ For many people, and I strongly suspect most, startup options are a losing bet. The worst part is you have to wait years before you know whether or not they're worth anything.

undefined3840 7y ago
The odds of winning the CA lottery is 1 in 42 million. There are fewer than a million residents in SF. I don’t know the exact number of startup winners (both founders and employees who made more than $1m) living in SF at this moment but I would conservatively estimate something in the 5k range.
- Judgmentality 7y ago
  The odds of winning the minimum $38 MM payout in California are 1 in 42 million. The odds of a smaller payout are orders of magnitude higher. And you can play twice a week, instead of having to wait a minimum of 1 year between potential payouts. You're also allowed to buy other lottery tickets in that period of time. To put things in perspective, of the dozens of people I know who joined startups, almost all of them felt the stock wasn't worth it.