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> the law of large numbers applied to quadrillions and quadrillions of atoms and essentially uncountable numbers of interactions between them yields a large lik
by speedplane 7y ago
> the law of large numbers applied to quadrillions and quadrillions of atoms and essentially uncountable numbers of interactions between them yields a large likelihood for even very unlikely independent events
It’s not so simple. If something is extremely unlikely but also has many chances to occur, the probability of the thing occurring is a very large number divided by another very large number. In these cases, it’s not always clear if the resulting probability will be high or low.
Just stating that there are quadrillions of potential interactions is meaningless if the chances of any one forming something useful can range from one in a billion to one in a quadrillion quadrillion quadrillion. Much like zero divided by zero (or in this case infinity divided by infinity) the overall probability is pretty much undefined.
- justinjlynn 7y agoTrue, there's no known analytical solution to the statistical likelyhood of abiogenesis. How one defines likelihood is rather important when discussing a statistical analysis.