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Live higher-stakes but non-professional players have major tells. They're good enough to play good hands and know the odds, but not good enough to bluff, make
by Mikeb85 7y ago
Live higher-stakes but non-professional players have major tells. They're good enough to play good hands and know the odds, but not good enough to bluff, make hero calls or folds.
I used to play 10/20 and 25/50 PLO, and while the game is different, the pattern described is pretty typical. Big multiway pots and speculative hands are the rule, so if a draw completes and there's 4 players in the hand, someone has it.
This doesn't sound like cheating, just a typical higher stakes game but on TV.
- hornd 7y ago900BB/100 is absolutely not typical for any high stakes game I've ever seen. It's unrealistic.
- Mikeb85 7y agoAnd I've run up $1k to $5k in an hour... I've seen players turn $5k into $100k at an even higher stakes game over a few hours. I'd rather see some evidence of wrongdoing, you can't prove he's cheating simply because he's on a heater...
- MFLoon 7y agolol it's not just a sick 1 session heater running up 10 or 20 buyins... he's running +900bb/100 over 70 or so sessions.
- Mikeb85 7y agoAgainst non-pros at a cash game broadcast on the internet. Odds are half the people he's playing against are out of their comfort zone, playing higher stakes than they should just to be on a stream. Not to mention there's no buy-in limit on these stakes, BB/100 means nothing if they're playing above the expected stakes (happens often if the biggest stakes are relatively low). Again, none of what you're saying is actually proof.
- newfangle 7y agoYou have no idea what you are talking about.
- Mikeb85 7y agoGreat comeback. Have you ever played at these stakes, live, or do you just play NL50 online and watch Twitch streamers?
- newfangle 7y agoYes I play 10/20 live multiple times a week. Explain to me how a winning reg would ever consider calling a 5 bet all in with 54o and then fold KK pre to a 4 bet?
- Mikeb85 7y agoCalling an all in with 54, what are the stack sizes? How many players? 54 has better hand equity 3 or 4 ways than heads up. As for KK, what's the hand history like? Again, heads up or multiway? Might have a read? What are the bet sizes and stack sizes?
- newfangle 7y agoClearly you have not done your due diligence if you dont even know the most famous hand. It was a 3 way all in and he called with 54o and both players happened to have AK Im not wasting any more time talking to you and i stand by my previous statement that you dont know what you are talking about.
- Mikeb85 7y agoYes, calling 54o 3 way is loose but not crazy. Maybe I've just played too much PLO over the years. Also, Fedor Holz once won a major tournament shoving a similar hand a few years back.
- reascenda 7y agoCheck out the Doug Polk or Joe Ingram videos. It's 100% cheating in this case.
- Mikeb85 7y agoUnless they have actual proof I'm going to have to side with the supposed cheater, until it's actually proven he cheated.
- reascenda 7y agoMy dude over an 8k sample of hands he's winning at approximately 100x the rate of the best players, while deviating colossally from optimal strategies. The probability of winning at the rate he does is beyond the one to the number of atoms in the universe level. This is as egregious a case of cheating as you're ever likely to find.
- SamReidHughes 7y agoI think that by itself is a weak argument, because let’s say he was superbly good at reading people. That could explain a huge win rate. But there is a ton of other evidence. And a people-reader wouldn’t have his eyes in his lap.
- newfangle 7y agoNobody actually reads people in poker. What the actually do is categorize different players into different player types based om hiw they play and then they exploit their suboptimal strategy. Sometimes someone flinches or looks nervous but generally that actually means they have a really good hand not a bad one.
- paggle 7y agoUsain Bolt deviated colossally from optimal sprinting structure/style and beat the world record by a crazy number of standard deviations. And that actually happened. So these things are not just false because they're improbable.
- alasdair_ 7y agoLook at this chart of VPIP and BB/100 and tell me that it doesn't look like cheating: https://i.imgur.com/66i3Tii.jpg https://i.imgur.com/66i3Tii.jpg In addition, his abilities magically go away on the days that his friend on the technology team is absent. Also, he only ever plays when the cards are marked with RFID tags. He NEVER plays when they are unmarked, even against the same people that he supposedly has an edge against. He is absolutely a cheat.
- bonestamp2 7y ago> his abilities magically go away on the days that his friend on the technology team is absent Who is his friend?
- Mikeb85 7y agoSomeone that no one has actually proven exists yet...
- umeet 7y agoThis is one of the worst comments I have seen on HN. I don't think you actually checked any evidence before commenting. I have played poker professionally for more than 10 years and I am 100% sure he was cheating. It's not that he is playing well and making good reads. Actually often he plays like shit but happens to make some correct decisions postflop. Decicions that in long run would be really bad but in those cases were perfect. One nice example is where he went allin preflop with 45o against two players who both had AK. Please check some of the streams and come back here to comment. You can start from Doug Polk videos. If you don't see that he is cheating then you are not a winning player and probably never have been.
- Mikeb85 7y agoI haven't checked out any of those vids. Maybe it is obvious cheating, maybe he's a fish on a heater, but until someone has actual proof he's cheated, I'm not about mob justice.