2 ms·
If the baseline is success probability 10^-8, raising it to 10^-5 is extremely promising at a relative level, but not at an absolute level.
by jessriedel 7y ago
If the baseline is success probability 10^-8, raising it to 10^-5 is extremely promising at a relative level, but not at an absolute level.
- Retric 7y agoThat’s fair though 10^-5 is wildly off base. About 1/3 of drugs that show promise on mouse models are ever tested in humans. After that Oncology has a 8.3 percent success rate for 2015. So, when looking at ‘cured cancer in mice’ something like 2.5% is about the right ballpark, which I would consider promising as a general baseline. For some comparisons the success rate in clinical trials averages around 14% though it ranges from around 33.4 percent in vaccines for infectious diseases to 3.4 depending on the type of treatment being tested. https://www.centerwatch.com/cwweekly/2018/02/05/new-mit-study-puts-clinical-research-success-rate-14-percent/ https://www.centerwatch.com/cwweekly/2018/02/05/new-mit-stud... Baseline is harder to calculate, but 10^-8 is probably reasonable depending on what’s considered.
- jessriedel 7y ago> About 1/3 of drugs that show promise on mouse models are ever tested in humans. Do you have a citation? This seems totally off to me. In so far as the number refers to something real, I suspect "shows promise" must mean something much stricter than the threshold that this particular treatment has passed. That is, I would bet against a 2.5% chance that this particular study leads to an actual drug approved to treat pancreatic cancer.