A recent post on LessWrong, http://lesswrong.com/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules_outperform_expert/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules

A recent post on LessWrong, http://lesswrong.com/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules_outperform_expert/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules_out... , suggests that won't help much, at least for most people. Even when they have superior tools and information available, most people prefer their own, inferior, judgement. blockquote >If this is not amazing enough, consider the fact that even when experts are given the results of SPRs, they still can't outperform those SPRs (Leli & Filskov 1985; Goldberg 1968). >So why aren't SPRs in use everywhere? Probably, we deny or ignore the success of SPRs because of deep-seated cognitive biases, such as overconfidence in our own judgments. But if these SPRs work as well as or better than human judgments, shouldn't we use them? /blockquote