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More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. Some smart analysts are e

by hugh3 16y ago

More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. Some smart analysts are expecting Apple’s actual revenue to beat the consensus estimates by $2 billion. So what we're saying is that analysts expect the results to be better than analysts expect the results to be? What if it turns out that the results aren't quite as good as expected? Or that they're better than expected but not as much better than expected as is apparently now expected? What'll that do to the share price? I should put in some buy orders at $200 just in case...

TomOfTTB 16y ago
There is a process by which analyst make their official predictions. I'm not an expert in that process but I know enough to say it assumes the mean value between the best the company could have done and the worst. So if the company manages to do the best it could have done it will beat the official estimates (And it's not at all illogical for an analyst to expect a company to do that even when their official analysis assumes an average)
cwp 16y ago
Oh, give me a break. You don't have to be an Apple fanboi to understand the difference between "some smart analysts" and "the consensus." He's saying most analysts predict X, while a few (smart ones, apparently) predict X + $2 billion. If you think he (or the "smart analysts") are wildly optimistic, fine. No need to beat up on strawmen; simple skepticism will suffice.
- hugh3 16y ago
  Presumably there are some also-smart analysts who are predicting X - $2 billion, then? All I'm saying is that we should also be prepared for the possibility that the earnings report is less, rather than more, than expected. If it were not so, then they wouldn't be very sensible expectations.
  - halostatue 16y ago
    The early indicators that I'm seeing from iOS app developers suggests otherwise. "Best Christmas Ever" is not an uncommon descriptor, suggesting major iPod touch purchases, plus. I know at work we've been seeing a lot more formerly Windows-only households adding Macs this past quarter.

by hugh3 16y ago

TomOfTTB 16y ago

There is a process by which analyst make their official predictions. I'm not an expert in that process but I know enough to say it assumes the mean value between the best the company could have done and the worst. So if the company manages to do the best it could have done it will beat the official estimates (And it's not at all illogical for an analyst to expect a company to do that even when their official analysis assumes an average)

cwp 16y ago

Oh, give me a break. You don't have to be an Apple fanboi to understand the difference between "some smart analysts" and "the consensus." He's saying most analysts predict X, while a few (smart ones, apparently) predict X + $2 billion. If you think he (or the "smart analysts") are wildly optimistic, fine. No need to beat up on strawmen; simple skepticism will suffice.

hugh3 16y ago
Presumably there are some also-smart analysts who are predicting X - $2 billion, then? All I'm saying is that we should also be prepared for the possibility that the earnings report is less, rather than more, than expected. If it were not so, then they wouldn't be very sensible expectations.
- halostatue 16y ago
  The early indicators that I'm seeing from iOS app developers suggests otherwise. "Best Christmas Ever" is not an uncommon descriptor, suggesting major iPod touch purchases, plus. I know at work we've been seeing a lot more formerly Windows-only households adding Macs this past quarter.