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Gruber admits that Apple isn't the same without Jobs. The issues isn't whether Apple can persist in the short term without him — obviously, it can — and it wil

Gruber admits that Apple isn't the same without Jobs. The issues isn't whether Apple can persist in the short term without him — obviously, it can — and it will even continue making handsome profits well into the future. The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt.

dejb 16y ago
> The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. I think the question is more 'Will people BELIEVE they can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him?'. The confidence that Apple products will win out has helped drive their success and allowed them to popularise novel products like tablet computers where others could not hope to. Whether the confidence and the 'reality distortion field' will be retained without Jobs is what I see as in doubt. If they introduce another great new product - will they get the same rate of adoption?
hugh3 16y ago
Now now, who says they can come up with the next iPod or iPhone even with him? What other worlds are left for Apple to conquer? Where else in your life can you possibly put an Apple product? On top of your television? Maybe. The AppleTV is actually a damn good product, but it still hasn't gained much traction. Many folks still aren't quite sure what it does. Heck, I've used one and I'm still not quite sure what it does. I know what it won't do, though, and that's play my DVD collection. Games consoles? I'm doubtful -- Apple's strength is in making better user interfaces than everyone else, but when you play a game you're at the mercy of the third party developer's interface. (And yes, they already failed at this once).
- Xuzz 16y ago
  Maybe (read: very likely) that Apple TV on top of your television will become that game console reasonably soon.
  - alanfalcon 16y ago
    Man, if an App store comes to an Apple TV with any kind of decent input device that really would be a gold mine (complete with gold rush for devs).
    - Xuzz 16y ago
      This input device is, of course, your iPhone or iPod touch. The decent-ness of said device is questionable, however. (But, it'd be perfect for Angry Birds TV!)
      - mambodog 16y ago
        Touch controls would have to be pretty limited due to the lack of tactile feedback, but I could see some motion-based controls (though an ipod/iphone is a pretty expensive gadget to be swinging around).
  - michaelbuckbee 16y ago
    How about now? Did you see that you can play The Incident on TV via iPhone and iPad TV out? http://www.ipodnn.com/articles/10/12/02/the.incident.uses.ipad.tv.out.iphone.remote/ http://www.ipodnn.com/articles/10/12/02/the.incident.uses.ip...
  - magicalist 16y ago
    I thought the hardware was way too underpowered for that sort of thing, hence the price. screens are expensive, but that wouldn't explain the > $300 price difference the apple tv and an iphone or ipad. now an apple tv 2... edit: the ipod touch is only $229, but that's still $129 more than apple tv. anyone have more info about the possibilities of apps?
    - mambodog 16y ago
      The current Apple TV contains the same cpu and graphics chip, and amount of memory as the iPad[1] Given that the iPad has decent games performance at 1024x768, I could see the Apple TV handling most iPad games at 720p, or running them at a lower resolution and upscaling (as the consoles do with many games, for example Halo 3/ODST[2] and GTA IV[3]). [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV#Technical_specifications http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV#Technical_specificatio... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_3#Graphics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_3#Graphics [3] http://www.ripten.com/2008/04/29/confirmed-gta-iv-ps3-is-not-630pits-640p/ http://www.ripten.com/2008/04/29/confirmed-gta-iv-ps3-is-not...
- alanfalcon 16y ago
  Good point about what the Apple TV won't do - if Apple would bite the bullet and have installed a Blu Ray + DVD player in the apple TV and sold it for twice as much, then I would have purchased that instead of the PS3 this past holiday season. There are reasons for that, and it seems Steve Jobs has issues with the Blu Ray format, not to mention a deep seated interest in promoting downloadable/streaming media. That said, my gut tells me that Apple isn't done finding markets to zap with their Midas touch (with or without Jobs, but hopefully with Jobs).
- swombat 16y ago
  Looking around the room at mass consumer electronics products which aren't Apple yet: - Hifi - Printers - TVs (being done) Looking at mass computer categories that aren't really done yet: - Wearable computers Granted they're not all likely, or even probable, expansion points for Apple. But if I can think of these in 2 minutes, I'm sure the crack team of product designers at Apple can think of a lot more (before culling most of them and picking the one most sexy option).
  - silvestrov 16y ago
    Hifi is iPod + AirPort Express. Apple tried to do speakers but found out they didn't have the competence for doing that. Besides, there is not much profit in selling speakers unless you are B&W. Amplifiers are an insignificant detail, somewhat like cables. Even B&W has realized this: see all their iPod speaker products. As more and more teens become twenty-somethings with a wage, I expect this product line to grow to be a significant part of B&Ws revenue. Young people (e.g. teens) don't use CD players. A CD player for them is like LP players: a historical artifact of old generations. Most radio channels today don't have good content, and the good stuff is available over the net. So no receiver either. The only source left for many young people is the computer/iPod/iPad/iPhone. So Apple has the Hifi solved. They're just waiting for the old generation to get that CD players should be put into the trashbin like they did with the VCR player.
    - hugh3 16y ago
      Except for people who are interested in actual hi fi, as in high fidelity -- people who wouldn't be caught dead listening to anything as lossily compressed as an mp3. I'm no audio geek, but I can easily tell the difference between CD and mp3 for some of the music I listen to. I even have a CD of Beethoven's Ninth which I've never actually listened to because the audio equipment I have can't do it justice.
      - deleted 16y ago
        [deleted]
      - gjm11 16y ago
- loewenskind 16y ago
  People were saying the same things before the iPod came out. And then before the Iphone came out. And then before the iPad came out. I don't see where they might take it next, but I'm not going to bet against them. At some point they'll fall into irrelevance like all big companies do, but I don't think that will be this year. With or without Jobs.
- jsz0 16y ago
  I've been thinking the same thing lately. We've just barely entered this post-PC era and it seems like SmartPhones and tablets are going to be where its at for at least the next 10 years. 15? 20? I'm not sure there's another 'next big thing' waiting in the wings anytime soon.
- primeMover2010 16y ago
  Apple should go for solutions in the automotive realm, personal transportation and the like.
- hallmark 16y ago
  How about cloud-based services? Apple has indicated their interest in this direction by plunking down a gigantic data center in North Carolina. And they have demonstrated their skills, judgement, and foresight at creating hosted services and platforms with iTunes and the App Store(s). Worlds to conquer need not be new hardware segments. If you posit that mobile devices are the end of the line of hardware innovation, then just imagine all the new software and connected intelligence that can be created for these devices. I, for one, would welcome Jobs' continued contributions to the future of these technological domains. I really don't see a drop-in replacement for him.
swombat 16y ago
The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt. The question is whether Jonathan Ives can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That's by no means a certainty, but I don't think it's as doubt-worthy as your statement. I mean, the guy looks really freaky on promotional videos. Who knows what he could come up with? (But seriously... Jobs has assembled a top team and put in place the right kind of company dynamic. It may not last for 50 years. It may not even last for 20 years. But it will probably last for 10 years.)
TomOfTTB 16y ago
Do you have a reason for doubting that? Steve Jobs has been an amazing leader for Apple but he's not an engineer. For example the iPod and iTunes came from external companies (PortalPlayer and SoundJam respectively). I suspect Jobs' influence pushed them from great products to fantastic ones but that's a role the executive team should be able to fill at this point. Look at the numbers... Tim Cook (COO): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1997 Jonathan Ive (VP of Industrial Design): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1996 Bertrand Sertlet (VP of Software Engineering): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1997. Scott Forstall (VP of Software Design): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1997 That's the bottom line for me. After working with Jobs' for 13 or 14 years you have to assume some of the magic has rubbed off. So this is a fairly competent group that should be more than capable of creating great products.
- tjogin 16y ago
  I think you are right; the years immediately following Jobs' departure from Apple will be just fine. Five or ten years after that though? When Jobs' influence and vision has faded a little bit, maybe some new blood has come on board, and maybe some of the guys there already have gotten more traction for ideas that would previously had been shut down by Jobs? I'm not saying it'd be a disaster, just saying.. who knows what the admittedly brilliant senior vice-presidents would do if Jobs weren't there. I guess we'll find out sooner or later. I sincerely hope that Jobs' vision and obsession has rubbed off, because whether you like Apple products or not, their influence in the tech industry is sorely needed.
- silvestrov 16y ago
  The chips in the iPod came from PortalPlayer, but Steve Jobs had a huge role in creating the UI, he spent a lot of time tweaking it. I don't think any of the above persons have the same ability to tweak a (hardware) product into something very usable and useful. (If usability is making a product easy to use, 'useful-ability' should be making the product fulfilling customers wants/needs.)
  - arn 16y ago
    fwiw, Phil Schiller was responsible for the scroll wheel on the iPod http://www.wired.com/gadgets/mac/commentary/cultofmac/2006/10/71956?currentPage=all http://www.wired.com/gadgets/mac/commentary/cultofmac/2006/1... The idea for the scroll wheel was suggested by Apple's head of marketing, Phil Schiller, who in an early meeting said quite definitively, "The wheel is the right user interface for this product." Schiller also suggested that menus should scroll faster the longer the wheel is turned, a stroke of genius that distinguishes the iPod from the agony of competing players.
cplamper 16y ago
> The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt. Apple has now a very strong and experienced executive team and great engineers, who perfomed very well during Job's last leave. Most of all they have a clear product strategy and incredibly streamlined processes in R&D, retail and logistics which enables them to stay very focused. So I believe they will continue to innovate. Apple today is nothing like Apple in the 90's when they were near bankruptcy and without a vision until Jobs came back.
- watmough 16y ago
  In that vein, "CURSE YOU PERFORMA 600!!!!!!!!!!!"
generalk 16y ago
The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt. Of course Apple can come up with the next iPod or iPhone. They can even design good ones. Steve Jobs is a fantastic CEO with a well-trained eye for simplicity. The only thing that might be missing in his absence is someone that will relentlessly say "no" to sub-par designs.

dejb 16y ago

> The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. I think the question is more 'Will people BELIEVE they can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him?'. The confidence that Apple products will win out has helped drive their success and allowed them to popularise novel products like tablet computers where others could not hope to. Whether the confidence and the 'reality distortion field' will be retained without Jobs is what I see as in doubt. If they introduce another great new product - will they get the same rate of adoption?

hugh3 16y ago

Now now, who says they can come up with the next iPod or iPhone even with him? What other worlds are left for Apple to conquer? Where else in your life can you possibly put an Apple product? On top of your television? Maybe. The AppleTV is actually a damn good product, but it still hasn't gained much traction. Many folks still aren't quite sure what it does. Heck, I've used one and I'm still not quite sure what it does. I know what it won't do, though, and that's play my DVD collection. Games consoles? I'm doubtful -- Apple's strength is in making better user interfaces than everyone else, but when you play a game you're at the mercy of the third party developer's interface. (And yes, they already failed at this once).

Xuzz 16y ago
Maybe (read: very likely) that Apple TV on top of your television will become that game console reasonably soon.
- alanfalcon 16y ago
  Man, if an App store comes to an Apple TV with any kind of decent input device that really would be a gold mine (complete with gold rush for devs).
  - Xuzz 16y ago
    This input device is, of course, your iPhone or iPod touch. The decent-ness of said device is questionable, however. (But, it'd be perfect for Angry Birds TV!)
    - mambodog 16y ago
      Touch controls would have to be pretty limited due to the lack of tactile feedback, but I could see some motion-based controls (though an ipod/iphone is a pretty expensive gadget to be swinging around).
- michaelbuckbee 16y ago
  How about now? Did you see that you can play The Incident on TV via iPhone and iPad TV out? http://www.ipodnn.com/articles/10/12/02/the.incident.uses.ipad.tv.out.iphone.remote/ http://www.ipodnn.com/articles/10/12/02/the.incident.uses.ip...
- magicalist 16y ago
  I thought the hardware was way too underpowered for that sort of thing, hence the price. screens are expensive, but that wouldn't explain the > $300 price difference the apple tv and an iphone or ipad. now an apple tv 2... edit: the ipod touch is only $229, but that's still $129 more than apple tv. anyone have more info about the possibilities of apps?
  - mambodog 16y ago
    The current Apple TV contains the same cpu and graphics chip, and amount of memory as the iPad[1] Given that the iPad has decent games performance at 1024x768, I could see the Apple TV handling most iPad games at 720p, or running them at a lower resolution and upscaling (as the consoles do with many games, for example Halo 3/ODST[2] and GTA IV[3]). [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV#Technical_specifications http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV#Technical_specificatio... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_3#Graphics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_3#Graphics [3] http://www.ripten.com/2008/04/29/confirmed-gta-iv-ps3-is-not-630pits-640p/ http://www.ripten.com/2008/04/29/confirmed-gta-iv-ps3-is-not...
alanfalcon 16y ago
Good point about what the Apple TV won't do - if Apple would bite the bullet and have installed a Blu Ray + DVD player in the apple TV and sold it for twice as much, then I would have purchased that instead of the PS3 this past holiday season. There are reasons for that, and it seems Steve Jobs has issues with the Blu Ray format, not to mention a deep seated interest in promoting downloadable/streaming media. That said, my gut tells me that Apple isn't done finding markets to zap with their Midas touch (with or without Jobs, but hopefully with Jobs).
swombat 16y ago
Looking around the room at mass consumer electronics products which aren't Apple yet: - Hifi - Printers - TVs (being done) Looking at mass computer categories that aren't really done yet: - Wearable computers Granted they're not all likely, or even probable, expansion points for Apple. But if I can think of these in 2 minutes, I'm sure the crack team of product designers at Apple can think of a lot more (before culling most of them and picking the one most sexy option).
- silvestrov 16y ago
  Hifi is iPod + AirPort Express. Apple tried to do speakers but found out they didn't have the competence for doing that. Besides, there is not much profit in selling speakers unless you are B&W. Amplifiers are an insignificant detail, somewhat like cables. Even B&W has realized this: see all their iPod speaker products. As more and more teens become twenty-somethings with a wage, I expect this product line to grow to be a significant part of B&Ws revenue. Young people (e.g. teens) don't use CD players. A CD player for them is like LP players: a historical artifact of old generations. Most radio channels today don't have good content, and the good stuff is available over the net. So no receiver either. The only source left for many young people is the computer/iPod/iPad/iPhone. So Apple has the Hifi solved. They're just waiting for the old generation to get that CD players should be put into the trashbin like they did with the VCR player.
  - hugh3 16y ago
    Except for people who are interested in actual hi fi, as in high fidelity -- people who wouldn't be caught dead listening to anything as lossily compressed as an mp3. I'm no audio geek, but I can easily tell the difference between CD and mp3 for some of the music I listen to. I even have a CD of Beethoven's Ninth which I've never actually listened to because the audio equipment I have can't do it justice.
    - deleted 16y ago
      [deleted]
    - gjm11 16y ago
loewenskind 16y ago
People were saying the same things before the iPod came out. And then before the Iphone came out. And then before the iPad came out. I don't see where they might take it next, but I'm not going to bet against them. At some point they'll fall into irrelevance like all big companies do, but I don't think that will be this year. With or without Jobs.
jsz0 16y ago
I've been thinking the same thing lately. We've just barely entered this post-PC era and it seems like SmartPhones and tablets are going to be where its at for at least the next 10 years. 15? 20? I'm not sure there's another 'next big thing' waiting in the wings anytime soon.
primeMover2010 16y ago
Apple should go for solutions in the automotive realm, personal transportation and the like.
hallmark 16y ago
How about cloud-based services? Apple has indicated their interest in this direction by plunking down a gigantic data center in North Carolina. And they have demonstrated their skills, judgement, and foresight at creating hosted services and platforms with iTunes and the App Store(s). Worlds to conquer need not be new hardware segments. If you posit that mobile devices are the end of the line of hardware innovation, then just imagine all the new software and connected intelligence that can be created for these devices. I, for one, would welcome Jobs' continued contributions to the future of these technological domains. I really don't see a drop-in replacement for him.

swombat 16y ago

The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt. The question is whether Jonathan Ives can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That's by no means a certainty, but I don't think it's as doubt-worthy as your statement. I mean, the guy looks really freaky on promotional videos. Who knows what he could come up with? (But seriously... Jobs has assembled a top team and put in place the right kind of company dynamic. It may not last for 50 years. It may not even last for 20 years. But it will probably last for 10 years.)

TomOfTTB 16y ago

Do you have a reason for doubting that? Steve Jobs has been an amazing leader for Apple but he's not an engineer. For example the iPod and iTunes came from external companies (PortalPlayer and SoundJam respectively). I suspect Jobs' influence pushed them from great products to fantastic ones but that's a role the executive team should be able to fill at this point. Look at the numbers... Tim Cook (COO): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1997 Jonathan Ive (VP of Industrial Design): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1996 Bertrand Sertlet (VP of Software Engineering): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1997. Scott Forstall (VP of Software Design): Been working with Steve Jobs since 1997 That's the bottom line for me. After working with Jobs' for 13 or 14 years you have to assume some of the magic has rubbed off. So this is a fairly competent group that should be more than capable of creating great products.

tjogin 16y ago
I think you are right; the years immediately following Jobs' departure from Apple will be just fine. Five or ten years after that though? When Jobs' influence and vision has faded a little bit, maybe some new blood has come on board, and maybe some of the guys there already have gotten more traction for ideas that would previously had been shut down by Jobs? I'm not saying it'd be a disaster, just saying.. who knows what the admittedly brilliant senior vice-presidents would do if Jobs weren't there. I guess we'll find out sooner or later. I sincerely hope that Jobs' vision and obsession has rubbed off, because whether you like Apple products or not, their influence in the tech industry is sorely needed.
silvestrov 16y ago
The chips in the iPod came from PortalPlayer, but Steve Jobs had a huge role in creating the UI, he spent a lot of time tweaking it. I don't think any of the above persons have the same ability to tweak a (hardware) product into something very usable and useful. (If usability is making a product easy to use, 'useful-ability' should be making the product fulfilling customers wants/needs.)
- arn 16y ago
  fwiw, Phil Schiller was responsible for the scroll wheel on the iPod http://www.wired.com/gadgets/mac/commentary/cultofmac/2006/10/71956?currentPage=all http://www.wired.com/gadgets/mac/commentary/cultofmac/2006/1... The idea for the scroll wheel was suggested by Apple's head of marketing, Phil Schiller, who in an early meeting said quite definitively, "The wheel is the right user interface for this product." Schiller also suggested that menus should scroll faster the longer the wheel is turned, a stroke of genius that distinguishes the iPod from the agony of competing players.

cplamper 16y ago

> The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt. Apple has now a very strong and experienced executive team and great engineers, who perfomed very well during Job's last leave. Most of all they have a clear product strategy and incredibly streamlined processes in R&D, retail and logistics which enables them to stay very focused. So I believe they will continue to innovate. Apple today is nothing like Apple in the 90's when they were near bankruptcy and without a vision until Jobs came back.

watmough 16y ago
In that vein, "CURSE YOU PERFORMA 600!!!!!!!!!!!"

generalk 16y ago

The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt. Of course Apple can come up with the next iPod or iPhone. They can even design good ones. Steve Jobs is a fantastic CEO with a well-trained eye for simplicity. The only thing that might be missing in his absence is someone that will relentlessly say "no" to sub-par designs.