4 ms·
You are missing it, failing to 'get it', running off in unnecessary directions, and flailing away at irrelevancies. It's simple, dirt simple: Here the shortes
by HilbertSpace 16y ago
You are missing it, failing to 'get it', running off in unnecessary directions, and flailing away at irrelevancies.
It's simple, dirt simple: Here the shortest clear explanation: "The hand the rocks the cradle rules the world.".
If you don't like that one, take all the woman in the US at, say, 18. Put each woman into either (A) REALLY wants to have children and be a good mommy and is concentrating on finding a suitable husband and (B) women with less overt interest in being a mommy.
Then, track (A) and (B) over a few generations and see what happens. Is there any doubt in your mind? The women in (A) will have the strong limbs on the tree, and the women in (B) will have weak, sick, or dead limbs on the tree. Then over time, the fraction of women in (A) will increase, and the fraction of women in (B) will decrease. In particular, genes that put women into (A) will increase.
Just what is it about this 'thought experiment' you find difficult to understand?
Here is what should be your first question:
Q. If this thought experiment is correct, then why do we have any women in (B) now?
A. I should leave the answer as an exercise. Here's one piece of historical evidence: Supposedly in year 1800 could take all the women in the US of Western European descent, track their descendants, and by year 1850 discover that their population (of say, just the women) had increased by a factor of four. We're talking 50 years with nearly all the women pregnant nearly all the time.
So, (A) or (B) didn't matter: Due to very strong social, economic, and practical pressures, the women got married, and then the babies 'just came'.
Since then, more and more, (A) and (B) mattered a LOT. So, now women in (B) have the option of concentrating less on motherhood and do and, thus, are pulling their genes out of the gene pool. In a few more generations, what stands to be left is women in (A).
The effect of (B) is already strong and easy to see: In the more industrialized countries, women of Western European descent are having way less than 2.1 children per woman and, thus, are dying out. So, as women in (B) die out, the population can continue to shrink. When about all that is left is women in (A), then the population will stand to increase again. Come back in 100 years and find a LOT of REALLY eager women in (A)!
Your next question should be:
Q. But women in (B) should have reproductive advantage because of their better ability to contribute to the economic strength of the home.
A. Good point, but so far it's not working. I suspect that somehow it won't work well enough before the women in (B) die out.
Complicated it's NOT.
- wazoox 16y agoDon't bother, the main premise of Idiocracy is true, and we're doomed anyway, because it obeys exactly the same logic as you do.
- prodigal_erik 16y agoThe demographic transition has been observed in many different races and cultures, as parents deliberately have fewer children as their confidence increases in the survival of those children (and the parents' own subsistence in old age). If wanting more babies were a heritable biological drive, we wouldn't see whole societies ignoring it immediately after it became economically rational to do so. Instead evolution took the easy way out and created drives for sex and for nurturing babies, because those are immediate experiences an animal can respond to. We've given contraception a bunch of cultural baggage, but there is no drive against using it any more than there is a drive against overeating processed sugar, because neither existed in the environment that shaped us.
- HilbertSpace 16y agoYou mention several good points, but, net, you miss it. The most serious place you get off the track is with your "If wanting more babies were a heritable biological drive, we wouldn't see whole societies ignoring it immediately after it became economically rational to do so." No: There is "a heritable biological drive". But as I explained elsewhere on this thread, e.g., for the US population increase from 1800 to 1850, that "drive" long didn't play much role. Now with contraception, etc., that "drive" is crucial. Or, the lack of that drive, with contraception, etc., is now the reason for the fall in the birth rate. It's dirt simple: Now with contraception, more career opportunities for women, etc., women without that "drive" will be pulling their genes out of the gene pool. So, come back in a few generations and find what? Sure: Find what's left, find nearly all women who DO have just that "drive". You seem to doubt that the "drive" can exist and be from genes: Don't doubt! It's in the gene pool now: A significant fraction of women see the face of a baby and know right away, front and center, that they want BABIES. Then they go looking for a suitable husband. In particular they don't go looking for K&R on C. Look, it's even simpler: It's really easy for girls from 2 on to really love their dolls and like to play 'mommy'. Don't doubt that most of this is just in the genes.