7 ms·

The Leave

120 points by dave1619 16y ago

keyle 16y ago
Jobs’s leave of absence is cause for concern — and for good thoughts and well-wishes. It is not cause for panic. Like any shareholder would say.
- raganwald 16y ago
  An ad hominem attack is not quite as weak as mere name-calling. It might actually carry some weight. For example, if a senator wrote an article saying senators' salaries should be increased, one could respond: Of course he would say that. He's a senator. This wouldn't refute the author's argument, but it may at least be relevant to the case. It's still a very weak form of disagreement, though. If there's something wrong with the senator's argument, you should say what it is; and if there isn't, what difference does it make that he's a senator? http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html
- isleyaardvark 16y ago
  > I do not own a single share of Apple Inc.; nor do I own stock in any other individual company I might write about on Daring Fireball. I do not expect this to change, but I pledge that if it does, I’ll disclose it here. (http://daringfireball.net/2007/08/taking_stock http://daringfireball.net/2007/08/taking_stock) I haven't seen him disclose anything about owning Apple stock since 2007. I wouldn't blame you for the assumption, but I don't think he's a shareholder.
  - zzleeper 16y ago
    Weird. Gruber's page sounds like www.apple.com/pr , or like Apple's Blog. Maybe he only owns options? :D (j/k)
  - lallysingh 16y ago
    I think Gruber's honest and sincere in his beliefs. But, even without shares in AAPL, his own business is rather tied to apple's well being. He's the huffington post for mac addicts. I think Jobs has been engineering a healthy Apple that can withstand his absence for some time now. Still, I don't know many better showmen than Jobs in the tech sector.
mikeklaas 16y ago
Gruber admits that Apple isn't the same without Jobs. The issues isn't whether Apple can persist in the short term without him — obviously, it can — and it will even continue making handsome profits well into the future. The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt.
- dejb 16y ago
  > The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. I think the question is more 'Will people BELIEVE they can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him?'. The confidence that Apple products will win out has helped drive their success and allowed them to popularise novel products like tablet computers where others could not hope to. Whether the confidence and the 'reality distortion field' will be retained without Jobs is what I see as in doubt. If they introduce another great new product - will they get the same rate of adoption?
- hugh3 16y ago
  Now now, who says they can come up with the next iPod or iPhone even with him? What other worlds are left for Apple to conquer? Where else in your life can you possibly put an Apple product? On top of your television? Maybe. The AppleTV is actually a damn good product, but it still hasn't gained much traction. Many folks still aren't quite sure what it does. Heck, I've used one and I'm still not quite sure what it does. I know what it won't do, though, and that's play my DVD collection. Games consoles? I'm doubtful -- Apple's strength is in making better user interfaces than everyone else, but when you play a game you're at the mercy of the third party developer's interface. (And yes, they already failed at this once).
  - Xuzz 16y ago
    Maybe (read: very likely) that Apple TV on top of your television will become that game console reasonably soon.
    - alanfalcon 16y ago
mattwdelong 16y ago
More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. I've seen this guy write some pretty stupid things, but this takes the cake.
- guywithabike 16y ago
  What's stupid about it? Or are we just slinging mud because we're an ad agency and that's what any respectable ad agency does?
  - mattwdelong 16y ago
    First of all, I have no clue where that knee-jerk response came from. Secondly, I cannot believe that Gruber would state that Apples quarterly report has more importance than a day that remembers a remarkable man. I think Martin Luther King JR day is pretty damn important one. But that`s just me, and my opinion.
    - gregstoll 16y ago
      I don't think he meant more important than the holiday itself, but more important than the fact that the markets are closed today, with respect to how Apple's stock price fares.
      - mattwdelong 16y ago
        I suppose, reading into the larger context of the article, that would make sense. Cheers for the clarification.
    - MaxGabriel 16y ago
      No--you're misreading him. When he says 'more important than the holiday' he's talking about things that impact Apple's stock price: "The announcement of his leave was perfectly timed: on a weekday, but a holiday on which the U.S. stock market is closed More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent" See, "more important than the holiday" is referencing Apple's strategy of announcing Jobs' leave on MLK day. Gruber is comparing two things that affect Apple's stock price--announcing on MLK day to avoid a panic, and announcing a day before Apple's Quarterly earnings report, and concluding that the latter tactic is more significant.
hugh3 16y ago
More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. Some smart analysts are expecting Apple’s actual revenue to beat the consensus estimates by $2 billion. So what we're saying is that analysts expect the results to be better than analysts expect the results to be? What if it turns out that the results aren't quite as good as expected? Or that they're better than expected but not as much better than expected as is apparently now expected? What'll that do to the share price? I should put in some buy orders at $200 just in case...
- TomOfTTB 16y ago
  There is a process by which analyst make their official predictions. I'm not an expert in that process but I know enough to say it assumes the mean value between the best the company could have done and the worst. So if the company manages to do the best it could have done it will beat the official estimates (And it's not at all illogical for an analyst to expect a company to do that even when their official analysis assumes an average)
- cwp 16y ago
  Oh, give me a break. You don't have to be an Apple fanboi to understand the difference between "some smart analysts" and "the consensus." He's saying most analysts predict X, while a few (smart ones, apparently) predict X + $2 billion. If you think he (or the "smart analysts") are wildly optimistic, fine. No need to beat up on strawmen; simple skepticism will suffice.
  - hugh3 16y ago
    Presumably there are some also-smart analysts who are predicting X - $2 billion, then? All I'm saying is that we should also be prepared for the possibility that the earnings report is less, rather than more, than expected. If it were not so, then they wouldn't be very sensible expectations.
    - halostatue 16y ago
      The early indicators that I'm seeing from iOS app developers suggests otherwise. "Best Christmas Ever" is not an uncommon descriptor, suggesting major iPod touch purchases, plus. I know at work we've been seeing a lot more formerly Windows-only households adding Macs this past quarter.
aristidb 16y ago
Another American ignoring the rest of the world: no need to speculate how the news will affect the stock price after the US holiday ends when you can just look how Apple performed in European markets, which were open during the time of the announcement (and reacted immediately with a 7% drop). Sorry for the rant, but this is the second time I see something like this today, and it pisses me off to no end.
- po 16y ago
  Other markets have nowhere near the liquidity of the market where AAPL shares are actually bought and sold. If you think the US market will wind up where the european one did then go ahead and make that trade. The opinion of the market will change as time goes on and people process the information available and more information becomes available. I don't think its fair to say "another American ignoring the rest of the world" when his whole point is that what matters is how apple does on the NASDAQ after the earnings announcements. In this case, how Apple stock traded in european markets over the holiday really is irrelevant to AAPL. It's nothing personal.
  - joshu 16y ago
    Xetra stars and whatnot have pretty decent trading volumes, esp on news.
  - aristidb 16y ago
    Wow, your comment made mine go from +7 to +1. Trading on Xetra was quite active yesterday, but certainly less than a typical Nasdaq day. You should not discount that price movement as irrelevant. And Gruber's point on earnings releases was a separate one, IMO.
    - po 16y ago
      Wow, your comment made mine go from +7 to +1. Ha. Sorry about that! I usually only downvote things that are materially wrong or offensive but I know lots of people use it as a vote to say they disagree. Your comment also had a sort of "typical American" derogatory feel to it which you can only get away with until someone points it out. Most people reading HN are probably Americans you know. ;-) As for the price movement, it is relevant only in that it is exactly the sort of knee-jerk reaction that Apple was avoiding by announcing on a holiday weekend. The movement we see when the market opens will be different given that people have had time to absorb the news, even without the earnings announcement.
JacobAldridge 16y ago
Not a particularly detailed article over at Slate posed the question as to whether details of Jobs' health should be disclosed as "material" to stockholders under the spirit (though not the letter) of SEC laws. I don't really know, so, discuss... [http://www.slate.com/id/2281452/ http://www.slate.com/id/2281452/ - as I said, not that detailed so I didn't submit it separately]
scrame 16y ago
Why do people read this drivel? Its Corporate PR in the form of a blog. The collective "fuck" that he felt had nothing to do with steve job's health and everything to do with hoping there is an iPad mini unveiled at the next keynote. While he idolizes steve jobs, it is apple that brings him his beloved products, so he is hoping that one of his Kowtow yes-men will be able to step up and be the narcissistic "rock-star" and keep delivering updates of his overpriced yuppie toys.

120 points by dave1619 16y ago

keyle 16y ago

Jobs’s leave of absence is cause for concern — and for good thoughts and well-wishes. It is not cause for panic. Like any shareholder would say.

raganwald 16y ago
An ad hominem attack is not quite as weak as mere name-calling. It might actually carry some weight. For example, if a senator wrote an article saying senators' salaries should be increased, one could respond: Of course he would say that. He's a senator. This wouldn't refute the author's argument, but it may at least be relevant to the case. It's still a very weak form of disagreement, though. If there's something wrong with the senator's argument, you should say what it is; and if there isn't, what difference does it make that he's a senator? http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html
isleyaardvark 16y ago
> I do not own a single share of Apple Inc.; nor do I own stock in any other individual company I might write about on Daring Fireball. I do not expect this to change, but I pledge that if it does, I’ll disclose it here. (http://daringfireball.net/2007/08/taking_stock http://daringfireball.net/2007/08/taking_stock) I haven't seen him disclose anything about owning Apple stock since 2007. I wouldn't blame you for the assumption, but I don't think he's a shareholder.
- zzleeper 16y ago
  Weird. Gruber's page sounds like www.apple.com/pr , or like Apple's Blog. Maybe he only owns options? :D (j/k)
- lallysingh 16y ago
  I think Gruber's honest and sincere in his beliefs. But, even without shares in AAPL, his own business is rather tied to apple's well being. He's the huffington post for mac addicts. I think Jobs has been engineering a healthy Apple that can withstand his absence for some time now. Still, I don't know many better showmen than Jobs in the tech sector.

mikeklaas 16y ago

Gruber admits that Apple isn't the same without Jobs. The issues isn't whether Apple can persist in the short term without him — obviously, it can — and it will even continue making handsome profits well into the future. The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. That, I sincerely doubt.

dejb 16y ago
> The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him. I think the question is more 'Will people BELIEVE they can come up with the next ipod or iphone without him?'. The confidence that Apple products will win out has helped drive their success and allowed them to popularise novel products like tablet computers where others could not hope to. Whether the confidence and the 'reality distortion field' will be retained without Jobs is what I see as in doubt. If they introduce another great new product - will they get the same rate of adoption?
hugh3 16y ago
Now now, who says they can come up with the next iPod or iPhone even with him? What other worlds are left for Apple to conquer? Where else in your life can you possibly put an Apple product? On top of your television? Maybe. The AppleTV is actually a damn good product, but it still hasn't gained much traction. Many folks still aren't quite sure what it does. Heck, I've used one and I'm still not quite sure what it does. I know what it won't do, though, and that's play my DVD collection. Games consoles? I'm doubtful -- Apple's strength is in making better user interfaces than everyone else, but when you play a game you're at the mercy of the third party developer's interface. (And yes, they already failed at this once).
- Xuzz 16y ago
  Maybe (read: very likely) that Apple TV on top of your television will become that game console reasonably soon.
  - alanfalcon 16y ago

mattwdelong 16y ago

More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. I've seen this guy write some pretty stupid things, but this takes the cake.

guywithabike 16y ago
What's stupid about it? Or are we just slinging mud because we're an ad agency and that's what any respectable ad agency does?
- mattwdelong 16y ago
  First of all, I have no clue where that knee-jerk response came from. Secondly, I cannot believe that Gruber would state that Apples quarterly report has more importance than a day that remembers a remarkable man. I think Martin Luther King JR day is pretty damn important one. But that`s just me, and my opinion.
  - gregstoll 16y ago
    I don't think he meant more important than the holiday itself, but more important than the fact that the markets are closed today, with respect to how Apple's stock price fares.
    - mattwdelong 16y ago
      I suppose, reading into the larger context of the article, that would make sense. Cheers for the clarification.
  - MaxGabriel 16y ago
    No--you're misreading him. When he says 'more important than the holiday' he's talking about things that impact Apple's stock price: "The announcement of his leave was perfectly timed: on a weekday, but a holiday on which the U.S. stock market is closed More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent" See, "more important than the holiday" is referencing Apple's strategy of announcing Jobs' leave on MLK day. Gruber is comparing two things that affect Apple's stock price--announcing on MLK day to avoid a panic, and announcing a day before Apple's Quarterly earnings report, and concluding that the latter tactic is more significant.

hugh3 16y ago

More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. Some smart analysts are expecting Apple’s actual revenue to beat the consensus estimates by $2 billion. So what we're saying is that analysts expect the results to be better than analysts expect the results to be? What if it turns out that the results aren't quite as good as expected? Or that they're better than expected but not as much better than expected as is apparently now expected? What'll that do to the share price? I should put in some buy orders at $200 just in case...

TomOfTTB 16y ago
There is a process by which analyst make their official predictions. I'm not an expert in that process but I know enough to say it assumes the mean value between the best the company could have done and the worst. So if the company manages to do the best it could have done it will beat the official estimates (And it's not at all illogical for an analyst to expect a company to do that even when their official analysis assumes an average)
cwp 16y ago
Oh, give me a break. You don't have to be an Apple fanboi to understand the difference between "some smart analysts" and "the consensus." He's saying most analysts predict X, while a few (smart ones, apparently) predict X + $2 billion. If you think he (or the "smart analysts") are wildly optimistic, fine. No need to beat up on strawmen; simple skepticism will suffice.
- hugh3 16y ago
  Presumably there are some also-smart analysts who are predicting X - $2 billion, then? All I'm saying is that we should also be prepared for the possibility that the earnings report is less, rather than more, than expected. If it were not so, then they wouldn't be very sensible expectations.
  - halostatue 16y ago
    The early indicators that I'm seeing from iOS app developers suggests otherwise. "Best Christmas Ever" is not an uncommon descriptor, suggesting major iPod touch purchases, plus. I know at work we've been seeing a lot more formerly Windows-only households adding Macs this past quarter.

aristidb 16y ago

Another American ignoring the rest of the world: no need to speculate how the news will affect the stock price after the US holiday ends when you can just look how Apple performed in European markets, which were open during the time of the announcement (and reacted immediately with a 7% drop). Sorry for the rant, but this is the second time I see something like this today, and it pisses me off to no end.

po 16y ago
Other markets have nowhere near the liquidity of the market where AAPL shares are actually bought and sold. If you think the US market will wind up where the european one did then go ahead and make that trade. The opinion of the market will change as time goes on and people process the information available and more information becomes available. I don't think its fair to say "another American ignoring the rest of the world" when his whole point is that what matters is how apple does on the NASDAQ after the earnings announcements. In this case, how Apple stock traded in european markets over the holiday really is irrelevant to AAPL. It's nothing personal.
- joshu 16y ago
  Xetra stars and whatnot have pretty decent trading volumes, esp on news.
- aristidb 16y ago
  Wow, your comment made mine go from +7 to +1. Trading on Xetra was quite active yesterday, but certainly less than a typical Nasdaq day. You should not discount that price movement as irrelevant. And Gruber's point on earnings releases was a separate one, IMO.
  - po 16y ago
    Wow, your comment made mine go from +7 to +1. Ha. Sorry about that! I usually only downvote things that are materially wrong or offensive but I know lots of people use it as a vote to say they disagree. Your comment also had a sort of "typical American" derogatory feel to it which you can only get away with until someone points it out. Most people reading HN are probably Americans you know. ;-) As for the price movement, it is relevant only in that it is exactly the sort of knee-jerk reaction that Apple was avoiding by announcing on a holiday weekend. The movement we see when the market opens will be different given that people have had time to absorb the news, even without the earnings announcement.

JacobAldridge 16y ago

Not a particularly detailed article over at Slate posed the question as to whether details of Jobs' health should be disclosed as "material" to stockholders under the spirit (though not the letter) of SEC laws. I don't really know, so, discuss... [http://www.slate.com/id/2281452/ http://www.slate.com/id/2281452/ - as I said, not that detailed so I didn't submit it separately]

scrame 16y ago

Why do people read this drivel? Its Corporate PR in the form of a blog. The collective "fuck" that he felt had nothing to do with steve job's health and everything to do with hoping there is an iPad mini unveiled at the next keynote. While he idolizes steve jobs, it is apple that brings him his beloved products, so he is hoping that one of his Kowtow yes-men will be able to step up and be the narcissistic "rock-star" and keep delivering updates of his overpriced yuppie toys.