5 ms·

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughl

by et2o 7y ago

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single Taycan yet. BMW has sold a crappy, overpriced electric car/washing-machine-lookalike for years (i3) without it catching on. Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon just yet for the Model 3. Tesla have a 3-6 year head start on making electric cars which will be difficult to overcome.

threeseed 7y ago
And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.
- et2o 7y ago
  That remains to be seen. There's no evidence yet. As I already said, people have been making that exact argument for years.
- caconym_ 7y ago
  > as we've seen with the Taycan and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla. The Taycan is not really competing with anything but Tesla's highest-end and presumably lowest-volume products, and the ID.3 and 4 don't exist as production cars yet (AFAIK). Competing with them is obviously possible but these aren't very good examples.
  - jm4 7y ago
    The Taycan is DOA. If I want an electric car then I’m getting a Tesla because it’s the easiest to own, easiest to charge, the most proven and outperforms every other EV. If I want a Porsche then I’m getting a 911 turbo because it’s their most iconic car. I’m not about to spend 150k on their first attempt at an EV, the riskiest model in their catalog and the one that will most likely sell the lowest volume. I don’t understand where the market is for the Taycan. Forget about it being a “Tesla killer”. It’s good that they’re going electric. I hope they stick with it and do well. But Tesla has already established themselves as a premium brand. It’s not like Porsche is coming in and filling a void here. They are going up against the leader in the leader’s strongest segment, and one which is low volume and not much pie to share.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      > The Taycan is DOA. No, they'll be selling about 20,000 a year which is what they always planned for. They're actually increasing production capacity at the moment: https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-production-high-demand/ https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-produ... > I’m not about to spend 150k There are two cheaper variants on the way. Buy one of them if you want: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cheaper-porsche-taycan-ev/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cheaper-porsche-taycan-ev...
- danhak 7y ago
  No one can “easily compete” with Tesla until they’ve secured 50GWh+ scale battery production and built out a global high-speed charging network that approaches the supercharger network’s coverage.
  - threeseed 7y ago
    In the EU for example Ionity is a superior charging network to Tesla's. And Tesla gets their batteries from the same place that everyone else does i.e LG. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-said-to-agree-to-buy-batteries-from-lg-for-china-factory https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-sai...
    - cameldrv 7y ago
      In the EU Ionity has 150 locations and Tesla has 400.
    - danhak 7y ago
      There are currently 474 supercharger stations in Europe vs. 150 for Ionity: https://supercharge.info/charts https://supercharge.info/charts The link you provided refers only to the LG supply deal exclusively for Model 3 / China. Tesla owns the largest battery production facility on the planet (Gigafactory 1 in Sparks NV) which supplies battery in partnership with Panasonic.
      - clouddrover 7y ago
        > There are currently 474 supercharger stations in Europe vs. 150 for Ionity But the difference is Ionity is CCS and all EVs can charge at its chargers. CCS cars can use any CCS provider like Ionity, FastNed, Allego, etc. which is the correct approach. I can fuel my ICE car at any fuel station and I should be able to charge my EV at any charging station.
        danhak 7y ago
        While accurate, your post only serves to underscore Tesla’s strategic advantage here.
- electriclove 7y ago
  Seems you think Tesla is going to fail due to the legacy car companies producing better EVs. Though I disagree, I would be ecstatic to see something like this happen. Sadly, as of today, I can't purchase any of those compelling vehicles you've mentioned.
- omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
  I wouldn't say 100% committed. VAG sells 10,000,000+ cars/year worldwide, so if they sell 100,000+ etron/Taycan/egolfs/etc this year, then they're maybe 1% committed. Hopefully the ID.3/4 will improve that, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Back in 2010, Audi said they would produce the etron by the end of 2012, which apparently is German for 2018. ;) https://www.wired.com/2010/03/audi-electric-vehicles/ https://www.wired.com/2010/03/audi-electric-vehicles/
thethrowboat 7y ago
Atleast in Europe i3 is selling almost as well as all Tesla models together. http://carsalesbase.com/car-sales-comparison/ http://carsalesbase.com/car-sales-comparison/
- mc32 7y ago
  I don't get why most models of the i3 have asymmetrical tyres front and rear. They couldn't even choose standardtires so you can choose, but they chose limited tires, so you have little choice in what to get.
- tmikaeld 7y ago
  I'd argue that it's because Tesla has been unable to deliver in enough quantities, which is about to change.
- rasz 7y ago
  Most of central European i3 sales can be attributed to German power companies making a deal with BMW under the table. Pretty much 100% of i3 sales in Poland in 2019 went to innogygo, a Green car sharing company. Why Green? Because parent company, Innogy, is a subsidiary of RWE. The lets strip mine ancient Hambach forest (https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-hambach-forest/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-hambach-forest/) for Lignite - THE dirtiest coal possible RWE. Sprinkle if with freshly cut Romanian forest (https://www.fern.org/fileadmin/uploads/fern/Documents/Up%20in%20Flames.pdf https://www.fern.org/fileadmin/uploads/fern/Documents/Up%20i...) and burn it all in Green coal^^^biomass!!1 fired power plants. Because in Germany co-firing dirtiest coal possible with small wood addition counts as green energy. Everybody wins, for a very specific definition of "everybody".
  - thethrowboat 7y ago
    I dont know whats wrong with that, isnt it better they buy green cars than ICE cars?
    - rasz 7y ago
      Nothing, other than i3 sales being fake, driven by desire of polluting German energy sector to greenwash its image and acquire carbon credits.
clouddrover 7y ago
> Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon Volkswagen will be delivering a lot of EVs in 2020. They're targeting everything from the low end (SEAT Mii) to the high end (Porsche Taycan). Here's Volkswagen's EV lineup for the next 18 months: - VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-161-mile-range-costs-less-than-its-predecessor/ https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16... - VW e-Golf (will be replaced by the ID.3, but still available): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0 - VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q - VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-motor-show/volkswagen-id-4-2020-electric-suv-tests-alongside-id-3 https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot... - SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-order-soon-for-20650e/ https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o... - SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g - Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w - Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-motor-show/new-skoda-citigo-e-iv-arrives-frankfurt https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot... - Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E - Audi e-tron (and also a new "sportsback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron - Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU - Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ - Porsche Taycan (and the Cross Turismo variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/ https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/ And they'll have more models out in 2021, more in 2022, etc. Volkswagen means to be the biggest EV maker in a few years. They have both the investment and the scale to achieve it.
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  This is the same company that had to scale back production because they couldn't make 50,000 etrons in 2019. So I'll believe it when I see it.
- FullyFunctional 7y ago
jm4 7y ago
And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? Never mind the fact that the Tesla beats every other EV on the road for a moment. The killer feature is the supercharger network. Are other manufacturers going to build 12000-15000 chargers all over the country that can top off the battery in 10-15 minutes before or after they build a decent car? You can’t take these other cars on anything but local trips if you can’t charge quickly. Most public chargers only charge at about 30 mph.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? On any CCS charger. Here are some examples of Taycan road trips: - https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-mile-journey-from-niagara-falls-to-nyc/ https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-m... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIsMlMU8MjI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIsMlMU8MjI
  - jm4 7y ago
    A road trip where Porsche selected the route with one charge stop isn’t impressive. It’s not a long range car until the typical owner can drive the continental US - or at least most of it. I’ve never seen a fast charger anywhere besides a Tesla supercharger.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      There are a number CCS charging networks in the US. Electrify America, EVgo, and ChargePoint have roaming agreements so the one account can be used across all networks: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-charging-station/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-ch... Tesla should convert their chargers to CCS now rather than sticking with a propriety plug. They've already converted their European chargers to CCS, although they're still not allowing non-Tesla EVs to charge at them: https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-now-retrofitted-with-ccs-plugs-in-europe-video/ https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-n...

by et2o 7y ago

threeseed 7y ago

And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

et2o 7y ago
That remains to be seen. There's no evidence yet. As I already said, people have been making that exact argument for years.
caconym_ 7y ago
> as we've seen with the Taycan and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla. The Taycan is not really competing with anything but Tesla's highest-end and presumably lowest-volume products, and the ID.3 and 4 don't exist as production cars yet (AFAIK). Competing with them is obviously possible but these aren't very good examples.
- jm4 7y ago
  The Taycan is DOA. If I want an electric car then I’m getting a Tesla because it’s the easiest to own, easiest to charge, the most proven and outperforms every other EV. If I want a Porsche then I’m getting a 911 turbo because it’s their most iconic car. I’m not about to spend 150k on their first attempt at an EV, the riskiest model in their catalog and the one that will most likely sell the lowest volume. I don’t understand where the market is for the Taycan. Forget about it being a “Tesla killer”. It’s good that they’re going electric. I hope they stick with it and do well. But Tesla has already established themselves as a premium brand. It’s not like Porsche is coming in and filling a void here. They are going up against the leader in the leader’s strongest segment, and one which is low volume and not much pie to share.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    > The Taycan is DOA. No, they'll be selling about 20,000 a year which is what they always planned for. They're actually increasing production capacity at the moment: https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-production-high-demand/ https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-produ... > I’m not about to spend 150k There are two cheaper variants on the way. Buy one of them if you want: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cheaper-porsche-taycan-ev/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cheaper-porsche-taycan-ev...
danhak 7y ago
No one can “easily compete” with Tesla until they’ve secured 50GWh+ scale battery production and built out a global high-speed charging network that approaches the supercharger network’s coverage.
- threeseed 7y ago
  In the EU for example Ionity is a superior charging network to Tesla's. And Tesla gets their batteries from the same place that everyone else does i.e LG. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-said-to-agree-to-buy-batteries-from-lg-for-china-factory https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-sai...
  - cameldrv 7y ago
    In the EU Ionity has 150 locations and Tesla has 400.
  - danhak 7y ago
    There are currently 474 supercharger stations in Europe vs. 150 for Ionity: https://supercharge.info/charts https://supercharge.info/charts The link you provided refers only to the LG supply deal exclusively for Model 3 / China. Tesla owns the largest battery production facility on the planet (Gigafactory 1 in Sparks NV) which supplies battery in partnership with Panasonic.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      > There are currently 474 supercharger stations in Europe vs. 150 for Ionity But the difference is Ionity is CCS and all EVs can charge at its chargers. CCS cars can use any CCS provider like Ionity, FastNed, Allego, etc. which is the correct approach. I can fuel my ICE car at any fuel station and I should be able to charge my EV at any charging station.
      - danhak 7y ago
        While accurate, your post only serves to underscore Tesla’s strategic advantage here.
electriclove 7y ago
Seems you think Tesla is going to fail due to the legacy car companies producing better EVs. Though I disagree, I would be ecstatic to see something like this happen. Sadly, as of today, I can't purchase any of those compelling vehicles you've mentioned.
omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
I wouldn't say 100% committed. VAG sells 10,000,000+ cars/year worldwide, so if they sell 100,000+ etron/Taycan/egolfs/etc this year, then they're maybe 1% committed. Hopefully the ID.3/4 will improve that, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Back in 2010, Audi said they would produce the etron by the end of 2012, which apparently is German for 2018. ;) https://www.wired.com/2010/03/audi-electric-vehicles/ https://www.wired.com/2010/03/audi-electric-vehicles/

thethrowboat 7y ago

Atleast in Europe i3 is selling almost as well as all Tesla models together. http://carsalesbase.com/car-sales-comparison/ http://carsalesbase.com/car-sales-comparison/

mc32 7y ago
I don't get why most models of the i3 have asymmetrical tyres front and rear. They couldn't even choose standardtires so you can choose, but they chose limited tires, so you have little choice in what to get.
tmikaeld 7y ago
I'd argue that it's because Tesla has been unable to deliver in enough quantities, which is about to change.
rasz 7y ago
Most of central European i3 sales can be attributed to German power companies making a deal with BMW under the table. Pretty much 100% of i3 sales in Poland in 2019 went to innogygo, a Green car sharing company. Why Green? Because parent company, Innogy, is a subsidiary of RWE. The lets strip mine ancient Hambach forest (https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-hambach-forest/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-hambach-forest/) for Lignite - THE dirtiest coal possible RWE. Sprinkle if with freshly cut Romanian forest (https://www.fern.org/fileadmin/uploads/fern/Documents/Up%20in%20Flames.pdf https://www.fern.org/fileadmin/uploads/fern/Documents/Up%20i...) and burn it all in Green coal^^^biomass!!1 fired power plants. Because in Germany co-firing dirtiest coal possible with small wood addition counts as green energy. Everybody wins, for a very specific definition of "everybody".
- thethrowboat 7y ago
  I dont know whats wrong with that, isnt it better they buy green cars than ICE cars?
  - rasz 7y ago
    Nothing, other than i3 sales being fake, driven by desire of polluting German energy sector to greenwash its image and acquire carbon credits.

clouddrover 7y ago

> Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon Volkswagen will be delivering a lot of EVs in 2020. They're targeting everything from the low end (SEAT Mii) to the high end (Porsche Taycan). Here's Volkswagen's EV lineup for the next 18 months: - VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-161-mile-range-costs-less-than-its-predecessor/ https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16... - VW e-Golf (will be replaced by the ID.3, but still available): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0 - VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q - VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-motor-show/volkswagen-id-4-2020-electric-suv-tests-alongside-id-3 https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot... - SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-order-soon-for-20650e/ https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o... - SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g - Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w - Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-motor-show/new-skoda-citigo-e-iv-arrives-frankfurt https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot... - Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E - Audi e-tron (and also a new "sportsback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron - Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU - Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ - Porsche Taycan (and the Cross Turismo variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/ https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/ And they'll have more models out in 2021, more in 2022, etc. Volkswagen means to be the biggest EV maker in a few years. They have both the investment and the scale to achieve it.

bryanlarsen 7y ago
This is the same company that had to scale back production because they couldn't make 50,000 etrons in 2019. So I'll believe it when I see it.
FullyFunctional 7y ago

jm4 7y ago

And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? Never mind the fact that the Tesla beats every other EV on the road for a moment. The killer feature is the supercharger network. Are other manufacturers going to build 12000-15000 chargers all over the country that can top off the battery in 10-15 minutes before or after they build a decent car? You can’t take these other cars on anything but local trips if you can’t charge quickly. Most public chargers only charge at about 30 mph.

clouddrover 7y ago
> And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? On any CCS charger. Here are some examples of Taycan road trips: - https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-mile-journey-from-niagara-falls-to-nyc/ https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-m... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIsMlMU8MjI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIsMlMU8MjI
- jm4 7y ago
  A road trip where Porsche selected the route with one charge stop isn’t impressive. It’s not a long range car until the typical owner can drive the continental US - or at least most of it. I’ve never seen a fast charger anywhere besides a Tesla supercharger.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    There are a number CCS charging networks in the US. Electrify America, EVgo, and ChargePoint have roaming agreements so the one account can be used across all networks: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-charging-station/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-ch... Tesla should convert their chargers to CCS now rather than sticking with a propriety plug. They've already converted their European chargers to CCS, although they're still not allowing non-Tesla EVs to charge at them: https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-now-retrofitted-with-ccs-plugs-in-europe-video/ https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-n...