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Elon claimed they had a chance at 100,000 a few days ago. Based on that this isn't meeting expectations. Also, the revenue is what matters and the breakdown of
by xkjkls 7y ago
Elon claimed they had a chance at 100,000 a few days ago. Based on that this isn't meeting expectations.
Also, the revenue is what matters and the breakdown of 3 vs S vs X indicates they will have significantly lower ASPs and probably will post a YoY revenue decline. That's not great.
- Robotbeat 7y agoAre people really unable to tell the difference between when something is possible versus when it's likely? Maybe it's just my perspective as a physicist, but the gulf between those two things can be immense. Considering the factory coming online very soon, I think the situation is looking pretty good, actually.
- xkjkls 7y agoWhy do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.
- Robotbeat 7y agoHaving to ship cars to the other side of the planet to the largest electric car market on the planet and pay super high import duties while not having access to local labor (etc) seems like a pretty thorough ball-and-chain on prices compared to what GF3 will enable. Additionally, they have a significant update to the high end Model S & X coming (three motors), the 2020 Roadster, the Model Y, the Semi, and the Pickup all announced, some of which likely has suppressed demand for their current offerings, which they've been too busy ramping up Model 3 production for to ship. So I think demand is not a problem. And considering they're doing this at a time when their EV credit is nearly completely gone and gas prices are at a near-all-time-low, I think they're doing remarkably well. ...especially considering they don't have a moderately-priced SUV/truck/crossover available yet. None of the top 6 best-selling cars/trucks in the US are actual cars. Model 3 is doing remarkably well considering it's not an SUV, crossover, or a truck.
- xkjkls 7y agoThis really isn’t answering the question. If a company is supply constrained, why would they be reducing prices? That’s literally the exact opposite of what should happen.
- Robotbeat 7y agoIncrease the price of any car in the US by over 30%, and I guarantee you'll be suddenly "demand constrained" for that vehicle by your definition.
- xkjkls 7y agoOk? And they are decreasing it. I assume the reverse applies?
- zaroth 7y agoThe decrease in list price is to offset the decreasing tax credit. E.g. A $60k Model 3 in 2018 with a $10k credit in MA (State + Federal) is now a $50,500 car with a $1,875 credit. (Federal and no State) Economically speaking the tax credit was always effectively a payment from the government to Tesla. The real consumer price is basically unchanged over the last year.
- Robotbeat 7y agoSecondarily, the backlog has increased which implies they're demand-limited.
- new_realist 7y agoTesla has over 14,000 cars in inventory. They are not production constrained, which is exactly why they keep dropping prices.
- davidgould 7y agoThat is about two weeks supply, which is extraordinarily low for auto inventory. Typical cars run 8 to 10 weeks inventory.