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The source on the disruption to the nuclear program wasn't from analyzing the worm, it was from: Three UN diplomats who were sources to an AP story: http://ne

by nikcub 16y ago

The source on the disruption to the nuclear program wasn't from analyzing the worm, it was from: Three UN diplomats who were sources to an AP story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101122/ap_on_re_eu/iran_nuclear_3 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101122/ap_on_re_eu/iran_nuclear... A "former top IAEA official": http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/22/AR2010112206746.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11... Iran stopped all uranium production, according to official IAEA report: http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Iran_report-nov23.pdf http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Ir... IAEA again: http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/8378260/iran-temporarily-halted-enrichment-in-mid-november-aea/ http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/8378260/iran-tempor... Head of Mossad and Hillary Clinton both announced: "that they believed Iran’s efforts had been set back by several years." (from the very NYT article) And no less than the President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: "Iran's enemies used computer code to make "limited" problems for centrifuges involved in uranium enrichment at some of its nuclear sites, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday" http://israelinsider.net/profiles/blogs/ahmadinejad-those-who-planted http://israelinsider.net/profiles/blogs/ahmadinejad-those-wh... but he would say 'limited', wouldn't he. Afterall two weeks earlier they were vehemently denying that Stuxnet had any effect.

tptacek 16y ago
All these stories say the same thing: Natanz suffered a major setback, and various researchers suspect Stuxnet played a role. Here's what I think: Natanz suffered a major setback, and the role Stuxnet played was to provide a smokescreen for the actual sabotage. I have no evidence to support my take, but then, there's not much evidence for the alternative take. I also think it's plausible that Ahmedinijad (who, remember, is not necessarily a key player in Iranian nuclear politics) or his handlers might play along with a bogus Stuxnet story if it suits the narrative; for instance, if humdrum human sabotage dealt a much greater blow to their plans than has been acknowledged, Iran might prefer the "virus cost us a few months" story to the "we're back to square one" story.
- nikcub 16y ago
  The IAEA report numbers are from two sources: a) Iran send periodic letters as updates to the IAEA b) The IAEA confirm the reported numbers through on-the-ground inspections. The reason why Iran had to eventually confirm production problems is because the IAEA was reporting centrifuges being replaced and production numbers steadily declining to a halt. The best report that ties all this together with Stuxnet is this one: http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/did-stuxnet-take-out-1000-centrifuges-at-the-natanz-enrichment-plant/ http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/did-stuxnet-take-...
- NateLawson 16y ago
  I don't know about your theory, but I agree you do have to notice that Iran wants to be considered a serious threat to increase their global bargaining position. Therefor, they have an incentive to publicize the "sophisticated cyberweapon" angle.

by nikcub 16y ago

tptacek 16y ago

All these stories say the same thing: Natanz suffered a major setback, and various researchers suspect Stuxnet played a role. Here's what I think: Natanz suffered a major setback, and the role Stuxnet played was to provide a smokescreen for the actual sabotage. I have no evidence to support my take, but then, there's not much evidence for the alternative take. I also think it's plausible that Ahmedinijad (who, remember, is not necessarily a key player in Iranian nuclear politics) or his handlers might play along with a bogus Stuxnet story if it suits the narrative; for instance, if humdrum human sabotage dealt a much greater blow to their plans than has been acknowledged, Iran might prefer the "virus cost us a few months" story to the "we're back to square one" story.

nikcub 16y ago
The IAEA report numbers are from two sources: a) Iran send periodic letters as updates to the IAEA b) The IAEA confirm the reported numbers through on-the-ground inspections. The reason why Iran had to eventually confirm production problems is because the IAEA was reporting centrifuges being replaced and production numbers steadily declining to a halt. The best report that ties all this together with Stuxnet is this one: http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/did-stuxnet-take-out-1000-centrifuges-at-the-natanz-enrichment-plant/ http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/did-stuxnet-take-...
NateLawson 16y ago
I don't know about your theory, but I agree you do have to notice that Iran wants to be considered a serious threat to increase their global bargaining position. Therefor, they have an incentive to publicize the "sophisticated cyberweapon" angle.