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More than likely the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Scotland will have another referendum if we leave with no deal, and odds are they will vote yes this tim
by bengale 7y ago
More than likely the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Scotland will have another referendum if we leave with no deal, and odds are they will vote yes this time. A hard border in Ireland will more than likely result in a vote for re-unification, and depending on how bad it goes for NI in a no deal scenario it's not unlikely for that to happen too.
In the short term we'll probably struggle with logistical issues, getting freight through the ports, shutting down motorways around Dover, etc. There will be more pain for people travelling to the EU, especially for those that do business there. Nothing apocalyptic there but definitely stuff we've not had to think about for decades. We'll end up falling in line with their regulation and things anyway I expect so I wouldn't expect to see any major trade deals with the US any time soon.
Politically even if the U.K. somehow stays together the Conservative party is going to end up bearing the blame for this. There is no real pathway to this being successful for those people that are hurting the most, they were lied to and even if they get what they think they want, they are going to pay the cost of that. How that shakes out is anyones guess, I wouldn't be surprised to see the country swing further to the right with the help of the tabloid press. Especially when we have to increase immigration from non-eu countries to bolster the people that leave, just within the NHS this is going to be required. Couple that with stagnant growth and a continuation of austerity there is going to be some real anger within the working class.
Essentially we're probably looking at another lost decade at least, a descent into darker and darker politics and finally when we're back to the original position when we entered the EU as the sick man of Europe we'll probably vote to rejoin.