4 ms·

I think if it even happens (several people I know still don't believe it will), it will in the long term lead to the dissolution of the Union. The position of S

by davedx 7y ago

I think if it even happens (several people I know still don't believe it will), it will in the long term lead to the dissolution of the Union. The position of Scotland is pretty clear here, and I can't see that the status quo will remain in Northern Ireland either. Personally as a British citizen I would not be disappointed to see a united Ireland in my lifetime - Brexit was a good chance to read up on all the history, and I do not believe NI should be ruled from London. I don't think there will be quite as much chaos and doom as some people predict, but the ports situation will definitely be bad (if you listen to the transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually do cross between the UK and mainland Europe regularly). Certain medicines will be in very short supply. There's an endless list of things from mildly inconvenient to downright terrible (if you depend on one of the medicines to live, for example). The economy is already tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest trade union will make this worse. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. The poor and disabled will be shat on even more than they already are. The wealthy will as always find a way to do just fine. Tax evasion will continue and probably grow (exemption from new EU tax directives and policies). More companies than have already left will move to the mainland. More EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus decimates entire sectors. People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely get harder. I hate Brexit.

clows 7y ago
The Union you are talking about dissolution being the GB not the EU I assume?
- arethuza 7y ago
  Yes, this being the UK someone who self identifies as a Unionist will almost certainly hate the concept of the EU.
- votepaunchy 7y ago
  More accurately the United Kingdom. Great Britain is just the island (England, Wales, and Scotland).
J-dawg 7y ago
Related question: how would they decide who gets to be a citizen of (independent) Scotland? I expect that millions of people would try to find a link to Scotland for a chance of regaining their EU citizenship.
- bengale 7y ago
  My understanding is you can get Irish citizenship if you have Irish grandparents. I'd expect that to be the same and for the Scottish government to offer citizenship to current residents. My hope is to use my wife's Scottish heritage to move there in the not too distant future.
  - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
    Which includes everyone born in Northern Ireland too - i.e. anyone born on the island of Ireland. A surprising proportion of Brits are eligible.
  - J-dawg 7y ago
    Any UK citizen can move there while it's still part of the UK. Do you think there would be minimum residency requirements for citizenship? It's a bizarre thought that we may be seeing English illegal migrants being deported from Scotland in the not-too-distant future. Also, how quickly could Scotland join the EU? I remember that being one of the sticking points of the first independence referendum.
    - bengale 7y ago
      Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see the Scottish government make it easy to get citizenship, at least in the short term. It would be an easy PR win to show large numbers of Brits requesting Scottish citizenship.
      - alex_hitchins 7y ago
        I hope so as I'd be one of those applying and moving. The whole Brexit mess is very very depressing. I hope the mess we are making goes to bolster Europe as a whole and show how it's so much better to just get along.
bilekas 7y ago
[quote] I do not believe NI should be ruled from London[/quote] Thats a nice sentiment but the problem is that a good amount of NI residents do. :|
shams93 7y ago
I imagine Britain will wind up like Los Angeles with something like 1/3 of the population forced to live on tents while working 2 jobs with no access to healthcare even when a car runs you over.
- bsagdiyev 7y ago
  That is not how Los Angeles is at all. It has a homeless problem, but by and far it is not a full third of the city population. Regarding healthcare, any homeless are eligible for Medi-CAL, so that part isn't true either. The thresholds are a little weird, but unless you earn 6 figures you either get Medi-CAL or a health insurance plan off CoveredCA with the state footing some of the premium based off income, family size, etc
benmmurphy 7y ago
When people claim the NHS is going to be privatised I think it is either deliberate scaremongering or they just don't realise how politically impossible it is. What probability would you assign this happening in the next 10 years conditioned on Brexit happening? I would assign less than 5% chance that this would happen.
- DanBC 7y ago
  > When people claim the NHS is going to be privatised I think it is either deliberate scaremongering or they just don't realise how politically impossible it is. I'm not so sure. People talking about private provision in the NHS are just looking at the several billions of pounds that the NHS already spends on private provision for NHS services, and at how the Health and Social Care Act works. We already have large NHS services delivered by private, non-NHS providers. Livewell South West is one example - 2800 staff. Priory Group and Cygnet are two other notable examples. Here's Livewell's page: https://www.livewellsouthwest.co.uk/ https://www.livewellsouthwest.co.uk/ Here's a list of Cygnet hospitals: https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/HospitalsAndClinics/DefaultView.aspx?id=46738 https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/HospitalsAndClinics/Defau... Priory Group and Cygnet are involved in some "specialist commissioning" services - low secure and medium secure forensic MH services, in-patient eating disorder services. These are expensive services. Everything needed for NHS privatisation is already in place after the Lansley reforms. There is nothing stopping large US firms coming over and putting in bids to run NHS services. If they put the right bid in CCGs are compelled by law to accept it, a CCG isn't allowed (by law) to prefer an NHS provider. The reason they haven't already done this is because they can't afford to do it on the money an austerity-funded NHS system is offering. Of course, this isn't the type of privatisation that parent post is talking about. But if we look at the reduction in provision of drug and alcohol services; of child and adolescent MH services; of adult acute MH services; of community based psychological therapy (unless you want IAPT); well, there are loads of things that people either just do without or they pay for from their own pocket. Some politicians have already said they want to charge people for GP visits or for ambo use. And all of this is ignoring the group of people who now have to pay for healthcare when they didn't before: the Overseas Visitors Charging Regulations.
lonelappde 7y ago
The NHS was founded in the ashes of WWII. Cutting it to save money is backwards; it is an investment that pays dividends in human wealth. So, with the EU agreements out of force, but not structure to replace it, what's to stop business as usual anyway? OK so now UK has no treaty for importing oranges or whatever. But that doesn't mean they are going to start actively blocking imports and sales. Sure some nation could do that, but those would be stepwise policy changes, not automatic chaos. Law governs people, but it doesn't control them. People due what they think will work, even if paperwork changes.
repolfx 7y ago
I don't hate Brexit so let me try to counter-balance your views a bit, which seem to come straight from the pages of the Guardian. if you listen to the transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually do cross between the UK and mainland Europe regularly Which transport professionals are you listening to? The head of Dover port and the head of UK Ports have both said they are all prepared and there either won't be any disruption or it'll be straightforward to manage. The port executives on the French side are saying the same thing. I've actually read the API specs for the French "InterBrexit" customs IT system. It's not as complex as I thought it'd be. So it appears the opposite is true - transport professionals are saying they're ready and there's nothing to fear. I suspect there will be no actual disruption to ports in the case of no deal. Certain medicines will be in very short supply This assumption is based on the idea that ports will be disrupted, but see above. Also the NHS has been preparing to use planes instead of ships/trucks from France for medicine. That would appear to work fine - medicine is not especially bulky. I strongly suspect there will be no disruption to the supply of medicines. The economy is already tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest trade union will make this worse. This very much depends on how you define it and what you compare it to. GDP growth last quarter was -0.2%, but a "technical recession" requires two consecutive quarters of that, so we'll see next quarter. If you describe the UK as "tipping into recession" because growth was -0.2% last quarter, then you must also agree that Germany has tipped into recession twice in the past year: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth So this is hardly something to trigger negativity about the UK. The UK economy has been doing better than the other best economy in the EU. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. You mean the party whose leader just gave a speech where he said: "Because after 70 years of the existence of the NHS - 44 of them under a Conservative government - it is time for us to say loud and clear 'We are the party of the NHS'. And I claim that title because it is our one nation conservatism that has delivered and will deliver the economic growth that makes those investments possible" Labour have been claiming the NHS is going to be privatised since forever and not only does it never happen but it has never happened despite a supposedly conservative government being in power for most of the NHS's history. It's just a canard and not related to Brexit, just your own political assumptions, which are based on misunderstandings of your opponents policies. More EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus decimates entire sectors. More will go home than what? Are you aware that net EU migration has continued to be positive and high ... at no point in the past decade have EU leavers offset EU arrivals. Moreover, it's not at all clear that Boris will actually reduce immigration after Brexit. He is famously pro-immigration and only talks in his speeches about trade policies, etc. If Boris does pull the UK out, I expect Farage to immediately start campaigning on actually reducing immigration because it's clear that neither Tory nor Labour parties will ever actually do it regardless of what they claim. People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely get harder. That's pure supposition. I think for many it will get easier. For instance, if points-based immigration is brought in, it will get easier for talented people who want to move to the UK but couldn't today because of the pressure caused by unlimited inward immigration of low cost, low skilled labour from the former eastern bloc.

by davedx 7y ago

clows 7y ago

The Union you are talking about dissolution being the GB not the EU I assume?

arethuza 7y ago
Yes, this being the UK someone who self identifies as a Unionist will almost certainly hate the concept of the EU.
votepaunchy 7y ago
More accurately the United Kingdom. Great Britain is just the island (England, Wales, and Scotland).

J-dawg 7y ago

Related question: how would they decide who gets to be a citizen of (independent) Scotland? I expect that millions of people would try to find a link to Scotland for a chance of regaining their EU citizenship.

bengale 7y ago
My understanding is you can get Irish citizenship if you have Irish grandparents. I'd expect that to be the same and for the Scottish government to offer citizenship to current residents. My hope is to use my wife's Scottish heritage to move there in the not too distant future.
- NeedMoreTea 7y ago
  Which includes everyone born in Northern Ireland too - i.e. anyone born on the island of Ireland. A surprising proportion of Brits are eligible.
- J-dawg 7y ago
  Any UK citizen can move there while it's still part of the UK. Do you think there would be minimum residency requirements for citizenship? It's a bizarre thought that we may be seeing English illegal migrants being deported from Scotland in the not-too-distant future. Also, how quickly could Scotland join the EU? I remember that being one of the sticking points of the first independence referendum.
  - bengale 7y ago
    Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see the Scottish government make it easy to get citizenship, at least in the short term. It would be an easy PR win to show large numbers of Brits requesting Scottish citizenship.
    - alex_hitchins 7y ago
      I hope so as I'd be one of those applying and moving. The whole Brexit mess is very very depressing. I hope the mess we are making goes to bolster Europe as a whole and show how it's so much better to just get along.

bilekas 7y ago

[quote] I do not believe NI should be ruled from London[/quote] Thats a nice sentiment but the problem is that a good amount of NI residents do. :|

shams93 7y ago

I imagine Britain will wind up like Los Angeles with something like 1/3 of the population forced to live on tents while working 2 jobs with no access to healthcare even when a car runs you over.

bsagdiyev 7y ago
That is not how Los Angeles is at all. It has a homeless problem, but by and far it is not a full third of the city population. Regarding healthcare, any homeless are eligible for Medi-CAL, so that part isn't true either. The thresholds are a little weird, but unless you earn 6 figures you either get Medi-CAL or a health insurance plan off CoveredCA with the state footing some of the premium based off income, family size, etc

benmmurphy 7y ago

When people claim the NHS is going to be privatised I think it is either deliberate scaremongering or they just don't realise how politically impossible it is. What probability would you assign this happening in the next 10 years conditioned on Brexit happening? I would assign less than 5% chance that this would happen.

DanBC 7y ago
> When people claim the NHS is going to be privatised I think it is either deliberate scaremongering or they just don't realise how politically impossible it is. I'm not so sure. People talking about private provision in the NHS are just looking at the several billions of pounds that the NHS already spends on private provision for NHS services, and at how the Health and Social Care Act works. We already have large NHS services delivered by private, non-NHS providers. Livewell South West is one example - 2800 staff. Priory Group and Cygnet are two other notable examples. Here's Livewell's page: https://www.livewellsouthwest.co.uk/ https://www.livewellsouthwest.co.uk/ Here's a list of Cygnet hospitals: https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/HospitalsAndClinics/DefaultView.aspx?id=46738 https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/HospitalsAndClinics/Defau... Priory Group and Cygnet are involved in some "specialist commissioning" services - low secure and medium secure forensic MH services, in-patient eating disorder services. These are expensive services. Everything needed for NHS privatisation is already in place after the Lansley reforms. There is nothing stopping large US firms coming over and putting in bids to run NHS services. If they put the right bid in CCGs are compelled by law to accept it, a CCG isn't allowed (by law) to prefer an NHS provider. The reason they haven't already done this is because they can't afford to do it on the money an austerity-funded NHS system is offering. Of course, this isn't the type of privatisation that parent post is talking about. But if we look at the reduction in provision of drug and alcohol services; of child and adolescent MH services; of adult acute MH services; of community based psychological therapy (unless you want IAPT); well, there are loads of things that people either just do without or they pay for from their own pocket. Some politicians have already said they want to charge people for GP visits or for ambo use. And all of this is ignoring the group of people who now have to pay for healthcare when they didn't before: the Overseas Visitors Charging Regulations.

lonelappde 7y ago

The NHS was founded in the ashes of WWII. Cutting it to save money is backwards; it is an investment that pays dividends in human wealth. So, with the EU agreements out of force, but not structure to replace it, what's to stop business as usual anyway? OK so now UK has no treaty for importing oranges or whatever. But that doesn't mean they are going to start actively blocking imports and sales. Sure some nation could do that, but those would be stepwise policy changes, not automatic chaos. Law governs people, but it doesn't control them. People due what they think will work, even if paperwork changes.

repolfx 7y ago

I don't hate Brexit so let me try to counter-balance your views a bit, which seem to come straight from the pages of the Guardian. if you listen to the transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually do cross between the UK and mainland Europe regularly Which transport professionals are you listening to? The head of Dover port and the head of UK Ports have both said they are all prepared and there either won't be any disruption or it'll be straightforward to manage. The port executives on the French side are saying the same thing. I've actually read the API specs for the French "InterBrexit" customs IT system. It's not as complex as I thought it'd be. So it appears the opposite is true - transport professionals are saying they're ready and there's nothing to fear. I suspect there will be no actual disruption to ports in the case of no deal. Certain medicines will be in very short supply This assumption is based on the idea that ports will be disrupted, but see above. Also the NHS has been preparing to use planes instead of ships/trucks from France for medicine. That would appear to work fine - medicine is not especially bulky. I strongly suspect there will be no disruption to the supply of medicines. The economy is already tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest trade union will make this worse. This very much depends on how you define it and what you compare it to. GDP growth last quarter was -0.2%, but a "technical recession" requires two consecutive quarters of that, so we'll see next quarter. If you describe the UK as "tipping into recession" because growth was -0.2% last quarter, then you must also agree that Germany has tipped into recession twice in the past year: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth So this is hardly something to trigger negativity about the UK. The UK economy has been doing better than the other best economy in the EU. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. You mean the party whose leader just gave a speech where he said: "Because after 70 years of the existence of the NHS - 44 of them under a Conservative government - it is time for us to say loud and clear 'We are the party of the NHS'. And I claim that title because it is our one nation conservatism that has delivered and will deliver the economic growth that makes those investments possible" Labour have been claiming the NHS is going to be privatised since forever and not only does it never happen but it has never happened despite a supposedly conservative government being in power for most of the NHS's history. It's just a canard and not related to Brexit, just your own political assumptions, which are based on misunderstandings of your opponents policies. More EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus decimates entire sectors. More will go home than what? Are you aware that net EU migration has continued to be positive and high ... at no point in the past decade have EU leavers offset EU arrivals. Moreover, it's not at all clear that Boris will actually reduce immigration after Brexit. He is famously pro-immigration and only talks in his speeches about trade policies, etc. If Boris does pull the UK out, I expect Farage to immediately start campaigning on actually reducing immigration because it's clear that neither Tory nor Labour parties will ever actually do it regardless of what they claim. People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely get harder. That's pure supposition. I think for many it will get easier. For instance, if points-based immigration is brought in, it will get easier for talented people who want to move to the UK but couldn't today because of the pressure caused by unlimited inward immigration of low cost, low skilled labour from the former eastern bloc.