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I think the UK will have to give up N.I. to Ireland at some point to avoid an all out war. EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades, but Europe has alwa

by ptah 7y ago

I think the UK will have to give up N.I. to Ireland at some point to avoid an all out war. EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades, but Europe has always been at war internally before that so it looks like it will be back to BAU

arethuza 7y ago
It's not really for the UK to "give up" NI - under the Good Friday Agreement the island of Ireland can be unified at any time if the populations of the North and South consent to it.
tasuki 7y ago
From an outside point of view, it seems crazy to split off and annex a part of an island. The shoreline very clearly marks the border. Obviously I understand the Brits who have lived in Northern Ireland for generations might feel differently about this and it's a complex issue for sure.
- NeedMoreTea 7y ago
  It's the Catholic-Protestant history. Not Brits living in NI. The Northern Irish 6 counties did not want to unify with Ireland when Ireland was born in 1919. Those 6 were the protestant majority counties, who wished to stay with the UK. Changing demographics and birth rates over the following century, increasing secularisation in the Republic, and increasing numbers who simply don't care about religion makes that far less of the issue.
  - osullivj 7y ago
    Catholic/Protestant history and the British colonisation of Ireland are inextricably linked: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster
    - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
      Yes of course, but there comes a point where they see themselves as indigenous Northern Irish, or Irish, not British or colonists. Just as those ruling in London no longer see themselves as Norman French, or in my UK county Danish.
- hutzlibu 7y ago
  Welcome to colonism. Have a look at africa, the borders there are a bit more arbitary. But in ireland it is not only about the english living in north ireland, but more about the irish living there. It was more about catholic vs. protestant. Not so easy to dissolve, but I hope the last blood happened long ago enougj for both sides to forget and move on, even if england messes up the deal amd the border becomes an issue again.
  - henryslater 7y ago
    This is one of the conversations where the difference between English and British actually matters. I don't think you're talking about the small number of English people living in Northern Ireland here are you? And I'm pretty sure the UK is the one that might mess up the deal rather than England (don't forget Wales voted to leave too).
    - bengale 7y ago
      > don't forget Wales voted to leave too This is debatable. It was very close and the large numbers of English retirees in parts of Wales that made it seem that Wales voted to leave. Brexit is very much an English project.
      - ptah 7y ago
        maybe england should just leave the UK and let the rest stay in EU.
        bengale 7y ago
        I would be very interested to see what a vote for 'English independence' would return. It'd be fascinating considering the benefit we gain from it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a large majority vote to go it alone.
      - henryslater 7y ago
        Wow you're totally right, it looks like it was down to English people in Wales; TIL and all that. Citation: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-peop...
crispyporkbites 7y ago
The Northern Irish who identify as British would not be very happy there. Pretty sure they would not accept this.
- magduf 7y ago
  So are they ready to trash the Good Friday agreement and go back to The Troubles? Because that's the alternative.
  - crispyporkbites 7y ago
    Why should they have to trash the good friday agreement in the first place? NI voted to remain.
    - ghaff 7y ago
      Because neither Northern Ireland nor Scotland have the power to decide unilaterally to stay in the EU as independent countries even if that were the desire of 100% of their respective populations (which of course it is not).
    - magduf 7y ago
      They have to trash the Good Friday agreement because it requires a customs-free border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This isn't possible with Brexit: having a customs-free border means anyone can just import anything into or out of the UK through NI. Maybe one solution would be to have a county-by-county referendum, where each county in NI gets to decide whether it wants to stay in NI or instead join Ireland. This would make NI smaller, but would concentrate the UK loyalists in it, and the number of Republicans (the ones who want to rejoin Ireland) would decrease a lot (many would be in the counties that would leave, which are probably mostly right on the border, and some might even move), so maybe re-establishing a hard border would be more palatable then.
      - osullivj 7y ago
        That amounts to repartioning Ireland. The original partition in 22 was traumatic, and we're still living with the consequences today. The partitioning of India in 47, and the British Mandate of Palestine in 48 were also traumatic and bloody events. Partition generally causes forced population transfer, which tends to lead to bloodshed.
franky47 7y ago
> EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades The Bosnians would beg to differ on this point [1]. It was not so long ago, and yet it all started on very similar terms as Brexit: the breaking of Yugoslavia into multiple parts who wanted different things (Serbia vs the others) via referendums reminds me a lot on how Brexit started. I don't think we're at the point where entire factions of people hate each other enough to start, support and sustain an all-out war, but then again with MPs getting daily death threats (some even actually getting murdered [2]) and the political dialog shifting towards low-levels of populism, it's tempting to think that the scales might tip at some point. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jo_Cox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jo_Cox
- ghaff 7y ago
  I suppose to those (including myself) who haven't really experienced most of the religious and other sectarian violence first-hand, the tenuousness of peace between two supposedly civilized Western European countries is a bit hard to appreciate. (Even if there are some analogs in the US with the former Confederacy and related racial tensions.)

by ptah 7y ago

arethuza 7y ago

It's not really for the UK to "give up" NI - under the Good Friday Agreement the island of Ireland can be unified at any time if the populations of the North and South consent to it.

tasuki 7y ago

From an outside point of view, it seems crazy to split off and annex a part of an island. The shoreline very clearly marks the border. Obviously I understand the Brits who have lived in Northern Ireland for generations might feel differently about this and it's a complex issue for sure.

NeedMoreTea 7y ago
It's the Catholic-Protestant history. Not Brits living in NI. The Northern Irish 6 counties did not want to unify with Ireland when Ireland was born in 1919. Those 6 were the protestant majority counties, who wished to stay with the UK. Changing demographics and birth rates over the following century, increasing secularisation in the Republic, and increasing numbers who simply don't care about religion makes that far less of the issue.
- osullivj 7y ago
  Catholic/Protestant history and the British colonisation of Ireland are inextricably linked: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster
  - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
    Yes of course, but there comes a point where they see themselves as indigenous Northern Irish, or Irish, not British or colonists. Just as those ruling in London no longer see themselves as Norman French, or in my UK county Danish.
hutzlibu 7y ago
Welcome to colonism. Have a look at africa, the borders there are a bit more arbitary. But in ireland it is not only about the english living in north ireland, but more about the irish living there. It was more about catholic vs. protestant. Not so easy to dissolve, but I hope the last blood happened long ago enougj for both sides to forget and move on, even if england messes up the deal amd the border becomes an issue again.
- henryslater 7y ago
  This is one of the conversations where the difference between English and British actually matters. I don't think you're talking about the small number of English people living in Northern Ireland here are you? And I'm pretty sure the UK is the one that might mess up the deal rather than England (don't forget Wales voted to leave too).
  - bengale 7y ago
    > don't forget Wales voted to leave too This is debatable. It was very close and the large numbers of English retirees in parts of Wales that made it seem that Wales voted to leave. Brexit is very much an English project.
    - ptah 7y ago
      maybe england should just leave the UK and let the rest stay in EU.
      - bengale 7y ago
        I would be very interested to see what a vote for 'English independence' would return. It'd be fascinating considering the benefit we gain from it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a large majority vote to go it alone.
    - henryslater 7y ago
      Wow you're totally right, it looks like it was down to English people in Wales; TIL and all that. Citation: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-peop...

crispyporkbites 7y ago

The Northern Irish who identify as British would not be very happy there. Pretty sure they would not accept this.

magduf 7y ago
So are they ready to trash the Good Friday agreement and go back to The Troubles? Because that's the alternative.
- crispyporkbites 7y ago
  Why should they have to trash the good friday agreement in the first place? NI voted to remain.
  - ghaff 7y ago
    Because neither Northern Ireland nor Scotland have the power to decide unilaterally to stay in the EU as independent countries even if that were the desire of 100% of their respective populations (which of course it is not).
  - magduf 7y ago
    They have to trash the Good Friday agreement because it requires a customs-free border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This isn't possible with Brexit: having a customs-free border means anyone can just import anything into or out of the UK through NI. Maybe one solution would be to have a county-by-county referendum, where each county in NI gets to decide whether it wants to stay in NI or instead join Ireland. This would make NI smaller, but would concentrate the UK loyalists in it, and the number of Republicans (the ones who want to rejoin Ireland) would decrease a lot (many would be in the counties that would leave, which are probably mostly right on the border, and some might even move), so maybe re-establishing a hard border would be more palatable then.
    - osullivj 7y ago
      That amounts to repartioning Ireland. The original partition in 22 was traumatic, and we're still living with the consequences today. The partitioning of India in 47, and the British Mandate of Palestine in 48 were also traumatic and bloody events. Partition generally causes forced population transfer, which tends to lead to bloodshed.

franky47 7y ago

> EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades The Bosnians would beg to differ on this point [1]. It was not so long ago, and yet it all started on very similar terms as Brexit: the breaking of Yugoslavia into multiple parts who wanted different things (Serbia vs the others) via referendums reminds me a lot on how Brexit started. I don't think we're at the point where entire factions of people hate each other enough to start, support and sustain an all-out war, but then again with MPs getting daily death threats (some even actually getting murdered [2]) and the political dialog shifting towards low-levels of populism, it's tempting to think that the scales might tip at some point. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jo_Cox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jo_Cox

ghaff 7y ago
I suppose to those (including myself) who haven't really experienced most of the religious and other sectarian violence first-hand, the tenuousness of peace between two supposedly civilized Western European countries is a bit hard to appreciate. (Even if there are some analogs in the US with the former Confederacy and related racial tensions.)