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Ask HN: What happens after no-deal Brexit?

54 points by aosaigh 7y ago

This isn't necessarily an ideal question for HN, but as an Irish person living in the UK I'm increasingly nervous of the fallout from the inevitable no-deal Brexit on the horizon and I trust the opinion of HN users. What do you think the consequences of no-deal is going to be? Is it as bad as everyone thinks? When I think it about it rationally it seems like it's going to be absolutely chaotic and potentially violent in Northern Ireland.

w_t_payne 7y ago
I am quite close to a couple of people actually working on Brexit ... and while of course they won't tell me any specifics, the message that I'm getting from the body language, eye-rolls and exasperated sighs is ... pretty bleak.
audessuscest 7y ago
nothing special
- aosaigh 7y ago
  Can you elaborate on why you think this? Genuine question
  - audessuscest 7y ago
    most important treaties will be negotiated under new treaties, as it's in interest of both parties (people tend to forgot it's not in U.E. interest to have no deal at all). If there was a real threat, The City would have already left somewhere else, and it's not the case. Actually, it's pretty obvious that U.E. makes everything they can to impeach the Brexit that's why I tend to think the real threat is more for U.E. (as an institution) than for UK.
    - panpanna 7y ago
      Even if you were correct, negotiating treaties takes time and the British politicians have already demonstrated major lack of skills in this area. EU tried for 30 years to come to agreement with Brits. they dragged their feet and caused lots of friction even when they had great offers. Why would things be better this time?
      - username90 7y ago
        Things tend to happen extremely quickly in real emergencies. They might get some bad trade deal but people wont starve.
      - audessuscest 7y ago
        U.E. has already treaty with many countries or others unions (like UE), so it might be pretty easy. Also looks at economical situation in UE, they are not in a situation where they can be in economical conflict with (or at least isolated from) a country like UK
        panpanna 7y ago
        Seriously, what is U.E. ?
        audessuscest 7y ago
        ...well, i'm french, it's written that way, but i can't seriously believe you didn't guess. Right ? ;)
Simulacra 7y ago
I am friends with an MP who is on the Remain side, and I've quizzed him off and on for some time. He tells me there will be some movement in the currency exchange markets, on the London stock exchange, but by and large life will just keep moving along. Manufacturing agreements with Asia and the Americas are in place, so no disruption to most of that. He thinks some food staples might be in short supply but companies have been preparing for Brexit for a year now, so disruption should be minimal. He believes the future of Britain is within the Union, but he personally believes all talk of disruption and shortages is just politics. Personally, I believe him. I think a lot of politics is filled with doomsday scenarios and fear mongering, but we're talking about a major, modern economy. Brexit reminds me of Y2K. Lots of talk, lots of worry, but nothing really happened.
- ptah 7y ago
  what does he think about N.I. and good friday agreement
- vr46 7y ago
  I thought Y2K was calm because it was a well-understood problem that had hundreds of thousands of pounds invested in fixing and mitigating the effects? Brexit is an unsolvable political problem that was created out of absolutely nothing but the desire for power.
  - hacknat 7y ago
    I mean Prince wrote a song about Y2K in the 80s.
  - ebiester 7y ago
    Hundreds and thousands of pounds? Worldwide, it meant replacing wholesale hardware and software systems and exceeded billions - it was just distributed throughout the world economy.
- Freak_NL 7y ago
  Surely that is in response to Brexit as in Brexit with a deal? A No-deal Brexit is quite different and will surely have real life consequences, not in the least in Northern Ireland.
ptah 7y ago
I think the UK will have to give up N.I. to Ireland at some point to avoid an all out war. EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades, but Europe has always been at war internally before that so it looks like it will be back to BAU
- arethuza 7y ago
  It's not really for the UK to "give up" NI - under the Good Friday Agreement the island of Ireland can be unified at any time if the populations of the North and South consent to it.
- tasuki 7y ago
  From an outside point of view, it seems crazy to split off and annex a part of an island. The shoreline very clearly marks the border. Obviously I understand the Brits who have lived in Northern Ireland for generations might feel differently about this and it's a complex issue for sure.
  - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
    It's the Catholic-Protestant history. Not Brits living in NI. The Northern Irish 6 counties did not want to unify with Ireland when Ireland was born in 1919. Those 6 were the protestant majority counties, who wished to stay with the UK. Changing demographics and birth rates over the following century, increasing secularisation in the Republic, and increasing numbers who simply don't care about religion makes that far less of the issue.
    - osullivj 7y ago
      Catholic/Protestant history and the British colonisation of Ireland are inextricably linked: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster
      - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
        Yes of course, but there comes a point where they see themselves as indigenous Northern Irish, or Irish, not British or colonists. Just as those ruling in London no longer see themselves as Norman French, or in my UK county Danish.
code4tee 7y ago
It will be bad, although with the complete inability of UK leaders to get anything done or make decisions much damage has already been done.
- panpanna 7y ago
  Funny you wrote that. The whole point of brexit was to be able to make their own decisions. Didn't start off that well.
CraneWorm 7y ago
Isn't "remain" option possible? Pardon my kidnapping the thread, but I don't think HN would appreciate splitting the discussion.
- aosaigh 7y ago
  Yep, it's still possible but increasingly unlikely at this point. The U.K. government have made an ultimatum today that the E.U. either accepts their "new" deal, or they leave with none. This deal isn't acceptable to the E.U. so there is an impasse.
  - J-dawg 7y ago
    Except that under the Benn act, the PM is legally obliged to seek an extension from the EU if a deal isn't agreed.
    - aosaigh 7y ago
      Yes, good point. While I hope that this is the case, my feeling after today is that the PM etc. doesn't care
      - J-dawg 7y ago
        Sadly that's my feeling too. He's already publicly said he would rather 'die in a ditch' than ask for the extension
        bengale 7y ago
        If the Liberal Democrats back down on Corbyn running a caretaker government we could very well see a second referendum that would more than likely return a remain result. It certainly doesn't settle things, we're going to have these issues for years to come, but may take us away from the cliff edge.
crispyporkbites 7y ago
In NI: - Irish border posts are setup - Lots of confusion at the border - Small groups of young men throw rocks at the border guards - Escalations occur - People die - New era of the troubles ushered in - 10 years later and thousands killed / displaced Meanwhile in scotland - Scottish referendum tabled - Overwhelming support to leave the UK and rejoin the EU - Referendum passes (just) - UK dissolves into England, Wales and NI NHS still underfunded.
NeedMoreTea 7y ago
I'm concerned, but mainly for the mid-term future than immediate starvation and riots. Borders and ports will cope - only after a period of obviously not having nearly enough customs and other staff for borders and checks. Temporarily difficult then. Particularly as we have a government that doesn't want to spend on any necessary service. Good Friday agreement is my biggest short term concern. That requires a lack of borders, and Brexit seems to require the impossible in NI. Mid-term I see reunification. Short term could get ugly if there's border posts, and just one incident... Mid term, it's destroyed UK's international reputation, it's boosted independence thoughts across the nation, and our politicians of all colours are clearly no longer fit for purpose. You tell me where that takes us. I see a further decline of science and business as more goes to the EU than here. Why would a project choose to locate in a post-Brexit UK with no EU agreement?
magduf 7y ago
Renewed conflict in Northern Ireland, breaking the Good Friday agreement, leading to open war between the EU and the UK, with Scotland seceding during the chaos and joining the EU. Or, renewed conflict in Northern Ireland and huge tensions between the EU and UK leads to the Queen taking control since the UK obviously doesn't know how to govern itself any more. Honestly, this seems like the best outcome; they'd be better off with royal rule than what they've chosen.
davedx 7y ago
I think if it even happens (several people I know still don't believe it will), it will in the long term lead to the dissolution of the Union. The position of Scotland is pretty clear here, and I can't see that the status quo will remain in Northern Ireland either. Personally as a British citizen I would not be disappointed to see a united Ireland in my lifetime - Brexit was a good chance to read up on all the history, and I do not believe NI should be ruled from London. I don't think there will be quite as much chaos and doom as some people predict, but the ports situation will definitely be bad (if you listen to the transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually do cross between the UK and mainland Europe regularly). Certain medicines will be in very short supply. There's an endless list of things from mildly inconvenient to downright terrible (if you depend on one of the medicines to live, for example). The economy is already tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest trade union will make this worse. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. The poor and disabled will be shat on even more than they already are. The wealthy will as always find a way to do just fine. Tax evasion will continue and probably grow (exemption from new EU tax directives and policies). More companies than have already left will move to the mainland. More EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus decimates entire sectors. People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely get harder. I hate Brexit.
- clows 7y ago
  The Union you are talking about dissolution being the GB not the EU I assume?
  - arethuza 7y ago
    Yes, this being the UK someone who self identifies as a Unionist will almost certainly hate the concept of the EU.
  - votepaunchy 7y ago
    More accurately the United Kingdom. Great Britain is just the island (England, Wales, and Scotland).
notkaiho 7y ago
It would require a lot of agreed-upon things to continue as agreed rather than end upon the overarching agreement (i.e. membership of the Union) coming to an end. This is largely what Brexit-positive people seem to think would happen in the case of a no-deal, i.e. "nothing much would change" because to rock the boat would be too much.
J-dawg 7y ago
What I fear is the UK government (and the press that support it) continuing its policy of doing very little and blaming everything on the EU. For example: 1. UK leaves without a deal, leaving an open EU border between Ireland and NI. 2. UK refuses to do anything to enforce this border or stop the movement of goods and people across it. 3. Ireland / the EU needs to protect its borders so they put up fences and vehicle checkpoints. Perhaps even with help from other EU countries' security forces. 4. UK right wing press runs stories full of angry language about the 'invasion' I fear we'll see this process repeated every time there's a shortage of anything - it will all be the EU's fault, and entering into any transitional agreements with the EU (if they are gracious enough to grant us any) will be 'surrender' or 'capitulation'. This is a worst case scenario, but I fear we are heading for serious civil unrest and violence
bengale 7y ago
More than likely the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Scotland will have another referendum if we leave with no deal, and odds are they will vote yes this time. A hard border in Ireland will more than likely result in a vote for re-unification, and depending on how bad it goes for NI in a no deal scenario it's not unlikely for that to happen too. In the short term we'll probably struggle with logistical issues, getting freight through the ports, shutting down motorways around Dover, etc. There will be more pain for people travelling to the EU, especially for those that do business there. Nothing apocalyptic there but definitely stuff we've not had to think about for decades. We'll end up falling in line with their regulation and things anyway I expect so I wouldn't expect to see any major trade deals with the US any time soon. Politically even if the U.K. somehow stays together the Conservative party is going to end up bearing the blame for this. There is no real pathway to this being successful for those people that are hurting the most, they were lied to and even if they get what they think they want, they are going to pay the cost of that. How that shakes out is anyones guess, I wouldn't be surprised to see the country swing further to the right with the help of the tabloid press. Especially when we have to increase immigration from non-eu countries to bolster the people that leave, just within the NHS this is going to be required. Couple that with stagnant growth and a continuation of austerity there is going to be some real anger within the working class. Essentially we're probably looking at another lost decade at least, a descent into darker and darker politics and finally when we're back to the original position when we entered the EU as the sick man of Europe we'll probably vote to rejoin.
goatinaboat 7y ago
We know exactly what happens because it’s actually defined in treaties, specifically WTO rules will apply. The UK is a full member of WTO independently of the EU. It’s important to remember that “the deal” isn’t a thing that was mentioned on the pamphlet that went through everyone’s door before the referendum. That just said that the government will implement whatever the people vote for (which was to leave). It’s entirely something the necessity of which was made up after the fact, as a face-saving measure by a political class that badly misjudged the national mood. It is obvious to anyone who has ever negotiated for anything, ever, that no deal is better than a bad deal. Ask yourself why Remainers are so keen to take that option off the table and keep asking for extensions indefinitely.
- cannam 7y ago
  > It’s important to remember that “the deal” isn’t a thing that was mentioned on the pamphlet that went through everyone’s door before the referendum. This was the pamphlet of the official Leave campaign: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case.html http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case.html It said "There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it", and "Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden stop - we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave".
cerealbad 7y ago
Interest rate cuts by the BoE, the pound weakens, Asian foreign investment - Japan and China would love to build high speed rail for an international market. Companies like Huawei will offer turn key solutions to government infrastructure projects. You can hedge by buying Swiss francs, Aussie dollars or Japanese Yen. Or purchasing an investment property or a plot of land for future development, immigration from Asia will see a rising demand in housing, cheap accommodation. Long term the UK becomes a type of Hong Kong for wealthy Europeans - tax haven and pivot point of entry into the European market. More jobs will be created in tech, manufacturing and construction.
downtide 7y ago
Think Mad Max on mobility scooters. I've stock piled food. The Irish border is already an issue, I was there recently when two bombs were found. I doubt it will be pretty.
DanBC 7y ago
The Belfast Agreement / Good Friday Agreement will be trashed and we'll lose the tenuous peace we had in NI. Watch Raab talking about the Good Friday Agreement: https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1175701674767388672 https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1175701674767388672 And here is the actual document that he hasn't read: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agree...

crispyporkbites 7y ago

The Northern Irish who identify as British would not be very happy there. Pretty sure they would not accept this.

magduf 7y ago
So are they ready to trash the Good Friday agreement and go back to The Troubles? Because that's the alternative.
- crispyporkbites 7y ago
  Why should they have to trash the good friday agreement in the first place? NI voted to remain.
  - ghaff 7y ago
    Because neither Northern Ireland nor Scotland have the power to decide unilaterally to stay in the EU as independent countries even if that were the desire of 100% of their respective populations (which of course it is not).
  - magduf 7y ago
    They have to trash the Good Friday agreement because it requires a customs-free border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This isn't possible with Brexit: having a customs-free border means anyone can just import anything into or out of the UK through NI. Maybe one solution would be to have a county-by-county referendum, where each county in NI gets to decide whether it wants to stay in NI or instead join Ireland. This would make NI smaller, but would concentrate the UK loyalists in it, and the number of Republicans (the ones who want to rejoin Ireland) would decrease a lot (many would be in the counties that would leave, which are probably mostly right on the border, and some might even move), so maybe re-establishing a hard border would be more palatable then.
    - osullivj 7y ago
      That amounts to repartioning Ireland. The original partition in 22 was traumatic, and we're still living with the consequences today. The partitioning of India in 47, and the British Mandate of Palestine in 48 were also traumatic and bloody events. Partition generally causes forced population transfer, which tends to lead to bloodshed.
      - magduf 7y ago
        Well, they're going to have bloodshed anyway, so wouldn't it be better to minimize it? The IRA isn't going to stand for going back to the way things were before the GF agreement.
        ptah 7y ago
        there's already increased IRA activity https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17891935.londonderry-bomb-planted-new-ira-targeted-police/ https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17891935.londonderry-bom...
- makomk 7y ago
  Giving Northern Ireland to Ireland against the will of the people living there does trash the Good Friday Agreement. The press and the EU haven't been talking about that side of it because it doesn't fit their narrative, but it's rather important. One of the key reasons why the Troubles happened the way they did and why Britain hasn't given Northern Ireland away already is that a large faction of the population are violently opposed to that, with emphasis on the violence part, and are willing to use all of the same tactics as the other side to get their way. That's why peace in Northern Ireland was so hard to achieve.
  - ptah 7y ago
    but right now NI belongs to UK against the will of a lot of Northern Ireland. All the border counties e.g. have voted for Sinn Fein for UK parliament. Possibly those counties need to join the republic?
env123 7y ago
Is repatriation to mainland UK not a possibility?
- notkaiho 7y ago
  Unionist Northern Irish people feel Northern Irish. Not mainland British. They don't feel English, Welsh, or Scottish. They're not in some sort of newly-established colony from whence they could be plucked and re-settled. This kind of comment screams of ignorance of the entire damn situation that's caused the Troubles and much more besides.

J-dawg 7y ago

Related question: how would they decide who gets to be a citizen of (independent) Scotland? I expect that millions of people would try to find a link to Scotland for a chance of regaining their EU citizenship.

benmmurphy 7y ago

When people claim the NHS is going to be privatised I think it is either deliberate scaremongering or they just don't realise how politically impossible it is. What probability would you assign this happening in the next 10 years conditioned on Brexit happening? I would assign less than 5% chance that this would happen.

DanBC 7y ago
> When people claim the NHS is going to be privatised I think it is either deliberate scaremongering or they just don't realise how politically impossible it is. I'm not so sure. People talking about private provision in the NHS are just looking at the several billions of pounds that the NHS already spends on private provision for NHS services, and at how the Health and Social Care Act works. We already have large NHS services delivered by private, non-NHS providers. Livewell South West is one example - 2800 staff. Priory Group and Cygnet are two other notable examples. Here's Livewell's page: https://www.livewellsouthwest.co.uk/ https://www.livewellsouthwest.co.uk/ Here's a list of Cygnet hospitals: https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/HospitalsAndClinics/DefaultView.aspx?id=46738 https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/HospitalsAndClinics/Defau... Priory Group and Cygnet are involved in some "specialist commissioning" services - low secure and medium secure forensic MH services, in-patient eating disorder services. These are expensive services. Everything needed for NHS privatisation is already in place after the Lansley reforms. There is nothing stopping large US firms coming over and putting in bids to run NHS services. If they put the right bid in CCGs are compelled by law to accept it, a CCG isn't allowed (by law) to prefer an NHS provider. The reason they haven't already done this is because they can't afford to do it on the money an austerity-funded NHS system is offering. Of course, this isn't the type of privatisation that parent post is talking about. But if we look at the reduction in provision of drug and alcohol services; of child and adolescent MH services; of adult acute MH services; of community based psychological therapy (unless you want IAPT); well, there are loads of things that people either just do without or they pay for from their own pocket. Some politicians have already said they want to charge people for GP visits or for ambo use. And all of this is ignoring the group of people who now have to pay for healthcare when they didn't before: the Overseas Visitors Charging Regulations.

repolfx 7y ago

I don't hate Brexit so let me try to counter-balance your views a bit, which seem to come straight from the pages of the Guardian. if you listen to the transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually do cross between the UK and mainland Europe regularly Which transport professionals are you listening to? The head of Dover port and the head of UK Ports have both said they are all prepared and there either won't be any disruption or it'll be straightforward to manage. The port executives on the French side are saying the same thing. I've actually read the API specs for the French "InterBrexit" customs IT system. It's not as complex as I thought it'd be. So it appears the opposite is true - transport professionals are saying they're ready and there's nothing to fear. I suspect there will be no actual disruption to ports in the case of no deal. Certain medicines will be in very short supply This assumption is based on the idea that ports will be disrupted, but see above. Also the NHS has been preparing to use planes instead of ships/trucks from France for medicine. That would appear to work fine - medicine is not especially bulky. I strongly suspect there will be no disruption to the supply of medicines. The economy is already tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest trade union will make this worse. This very much depends on how you define it and what you compare it to. GDP growth last quarter was -0.2%, but a "technical recession" requires two consecutive quarters of that, so we'll see next quarter. If you describe the UK as "tipping into recession" because growth was -0.2% last quarter, then you must also agree that Germany has tipped into recession twice in the past year: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth So this is hardly something to trigger negativity about the UK. The UK economy has been doing better than the other best economy in the EU. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. You mean the party whose leader just gave a speech where he said: "Because after 70 years of the existence of the NHS - 44 of them under a Conservative government - it is time for us to say loud and clear 'We are the party of the NHS'. And I claim that title because it is our one nation conservatism that has delivered and will deliver the economic growth that makes those investments possible" Labour have been claiming the NHS is going to be privatised since forever and not only does it never happen but it has never happened despite a supposedly conservative government being in power for most of the NHS's history. It's just a canard and not related to Brexit, just your own political assumptions, which are based on misunderstandings of your opponents policies. More EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus decimates entire sectors. More will go home than what? Are you aware that net EU migration has continued to be positive and high ... at no point in the past decade have EU leavers offset EU arrivals. Moreover, it's not at all clear that Boris will actually reduce immigration after Brexit. He is famously pro-immigration and only talks in his speeches about trade policies, etc. If Boris does pull the UK out, I expect Farage to immediately start campaigning on actually reducing immigration because it's clear that neither Tory nor Labour parties will ever actually do it regardless of what they claim. People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely get harder. That's pure supposition. I think for many it will get easier. For instance, if points-based immigration is brought in, it will get easier for talented people who want to move to the UK but couldn't today because of the pressure caused by unlimited inward immigration of low cost, low skilled labour from the former eastern bloc.